The Hill's Morning Report: Koch Network re-evaluating midterm strategy amid frustrations with GOP

 

 



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I would put it at a 60-65 percent chance the House flips.

-- Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report editor and publisher, WTOP radio interview.

The network of groups affiliated with billionaire conservative donors Charles and David Koch are taking a new look at which Republican candidates to support this year.

The groups still plan to spend up to $400 million on politics and policies this election cycle, but they’re deeply frustrated by what they view as the GOP’s refusal to take up major legislation ahead of the midterm election.

Americans for Prosperity president Tim Phillips, a senior Koch network political strategist, tells us they’ve made their misgivings known to the White House and GOP leaders in Congress, including Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanDebate with Donald Trump? Just say no Ex-Trump adviser says GOP needs a better health-care message for 2020 Liz Cheney faces a big decision on her future MORE (R-Wis.).

“We’ve been disappointed so far this year and it’s going to cause us to closely evaluate the involvement we may or may not have in individual races,” Phillips says.

The Koch network isn’t only exasperated with Republicans for passing the $1.3 trillion spending package or frustrated by President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump calls for Republicans to be 'united' on abortion Tlaib calls on Amash to join impeachment resolution Facebook temporarily suspended conservative commentator Candace Owens MORE’s threatened tariffs.

They also want to see Congress act on:

  •     Protection for so-called Dreamers in exchange for border security.
  •     Criminal justice reform.
  •     Rolling back Dodd-Frank banking rules.
  •     Providing access to experimental drugs for terminally ill patients.
  •     A rescission package to claw back omnibus spending.
  •     A vote to make individual tax rate cuts permanent.

“The best opportunity they have to hold the House for their majority is to accomplish big things on policies that will improve the lives of Americans,” Phillips adds.

Some of the network’s donors privately tell us that the House majority looks like a lost cause, potentially accelerating the movement of money toward protecting the Senate majority.

Republicans up for reelection in this difficult midterm election cycle know how beneficial support from the Koch Network can be, both for media ad buys and in activating their network of door-knockers and phone-bankers.

The network spent millions to help elect former Sen. Kelly AyotteKelly Ann AyotteSinema, Gallagher fastest lawmakers in charity race New Hampshire senator to ask 2020 Dems to back repeal of state residency law Schultz recruiting GOP insiders ahead of possible 2020 bid MORE (R-N.H.) in 2010. They pulled their support from her in 2016, and she lost by about 1,000 votes. Also that year, the network actively campaigned against former Rep. Renee EllmersRenee EllmersRenee Ellmers announces bid for North Carolina lieutenant governor Mark Sanford’s troubles did not begin with Trump The Hill's Morning Report: Koch Network re-evaluating midterm strategy amid frustrations with GOP MORE (R-N.C.), who lost in a primary to Rep. George HoldingGeorge Edward Bell HoldingRepublicans troll Democrats with proposals to rename upcoming health care bill GOP lawmaker calls for investigation into alleged 'anti-Israeli bias' at Duke-UNC conference Renee Ellmers announces bid for North Carolina lieutenant governor MORE (R-N.C).

There are no plans at this point for the Koch Network to target Republicans in primaries or support Democrats in general elections. But GOP incumbents are on notice to get things done if they want Koch support.

“It’s late April,” Phillips says. “Time is ticking.”

LEADING THE DAY

TRUMP AND PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON,
following tree planting and grace notes about centuries of admiration between America and France, get down to global business today (with some pomp tonight).

But chasms exist between Trump and Macron, The Hill’s Jordan Fabian reports. The French president wants to nudge Trump on:

  • The Paris climate accord;
  • Iran nuclear deal;
  • Syria’s future;
  • Trade disputes.

Reuters: U.S. faces “severe consequences” if it withdraws from 2015 nuclear deal, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani warns.

The New York Times: Trump throws out tradition for first state dinner.

AP: Two presidents bond before business at Mount Vernon.

CNN: Melania TrumpMelania TrumpThe Hill's Morning Report — Presented by Pass USMCA Coalition — Trump: GOP has `clear contrast' with Dems on immigration The Hill's 12:30 Report: Alabama abortion bill revives national debate The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Pass USMCA Coalition - After GOP infighting, Trump Jr. agrees to testify again MORE looks to history for inspired state dinner with Macrons. See what’s on tonight’s menu here.

 

INVESTIGATIVE UPDATE:

The Hill: White House won’t rule out a presidential pardon for Michael Cohen.
The Hill: GOP House committee chairmen strike a deal with Justice Department re: documents for investigation into FBI in 2016.
The Hill: “We have no intention of firing the special counsel,” the White House said Monday.

POMPEO NEARS CONFIRMATION TO LEAD STATE DEPARTMENT:

CIA Director Mike PompeoMichael (Mike) Richard PompeoUS warns airlines about flying over Persian Gulf amid Iran tensions Trump: Anonymous news sources are 'bulls---' Iranian official: Trump 'holding a gun' while pursuing talks MORE, Trump’s nominee to be the administration’s top diplomat, narrowly cleared the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Monday when Kentucky Sen. Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulUS ambassador to Germany ruffles State Department with budget stand Overnight Defense: Congressional leaders receive classified briefing on Iran | Trump on war: 'I hope not' | Key Republican calls threats credible | Warren plan targets corporate influence at Pentagon Rand Paul: Bolton is a 'malign influence' MORE (R-Ky.) changed his mind and supported the former Kansas congressman.

The Hill: Pompeo is expected be confirmed by the full Senate later this week with help from red-state Democrats, and he could be sworn in by Vice President Pence almost immediately.

The president’s reaction when asked about Paul’s flip: “I said he’d never let us down. He’s a good man.”

  • WHITE HOUSE PERSONNEL: AP: Vice President Pence to name retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who served former Trump adviser H.R. McMaster in the West Wing, as national security adviser on the vice president’s staff.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

Scott PruittEdward (Scott) Scott PruittOn The Money: New financial disclosures provide glimpse of Trump's wealth | Walmart, Macy's say tariffs will mean price hikes | Consumer agency says Education Department blocking student loan oversight Overnight Energy: EPA watchdog finds Pruitt spent 4K on 'excessive' travel | Agency defends Pruitt expenses | Lawmakers push EPA to recover money | Inslee proposes spending T for green jobs Lawmakers take EPA head to task for refusing to demand Pruitt repay travel expenses MORE, administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, hits choppier waters. Is his support waning at the White House?

Must-watch TV Pruitt to testify Thursday about his agency’s budget (and juggle lots of other questions) before the House Subcommittee on the Environment.

The president’s pick to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs, Rear Adm. Dr. Ronny Jackson, in trouble, too.

The Senate abruptly postponed Jackson’s confirmation hearing last night — it had been scheduled for Thursday — as lawmakers said they need to better understand unconfirmed complaints of workplace misconduct against Jackson (Washington Post).

Grousing is now intense about the lack of process to replace fired VA Secretary David ShulkinDavid Jonathon ShulkinTrump sent policy pitch from Mar-a-Lago member to VA secretary: report Is a presidential appointment worth the risk? It’s time to end the scare tactics and get to work for our veterans MORE: Trump conducted no interviews, there was no vetting and no customary consultations with Capitol Hill before announcing Jackson, who has scant federal management experience.

Meanwhile, Gina Haspel, nominated to be CIA director, continues to contend with forceful critics as well as bipartisan supporters in advance of a May 9 confirmation hearing (The Hill).

Politics — Special election alert

Voters head to the polls in Arizona today for the special election to replace Rep. Trent FranksHarold (Trent) Trent FranksArizona New Members 2019 Cook shifts 8 House races toward Dems Freedom Caucus members see openings in leadership MORE (R-Ariz.) (The Hill).

It’s the latest test for Republicans ahead of a midterm election that has prognosticators forecasting big gains for Democrats in the House. Trump won Arizona’s 8th District by more than 20 points in 2016 but Tuesday’s election between Republican Debbie Lasko and Democrat Hiral Tipirneni figures to be much closer.

The most recent Emerson College survey found Lasko with a 6 point lead. The same poll from two weeks ago had Tipirneni up by 1. Republicans expect to win, but the margins here will be important in determining their level of panic going forward.

Wall Street Journal: Arizona Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallySenate Republicans running away from Alabama abortion law McSally to introduce military sexual assault reform bill Dem Senate campaign arm hits GOP lawmakers over Trump tax law MORE (R), who is running for Senate, accuses high school coach of sexual abuse.

Also in politics, the Supreme Court on Tuesday will hear oral arguments in a case about redrawing congressional districts in Texas. The plaintiffs say Hispanics are underrepresented in the current maps (The Hill).

The Hill: Colorado Supreme Court rules GOP lawmaker should be kept off ballot.

Politico: Watchdog organization sues Speaker Ryan-aligned dark money group.

Congressional leadership fight, Democratic edition

House Minority Leader Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia D'Alesandro PelosiTlaib calls on Amash to join impeachment resolution 5 things to watch as Trump, Dems clash over investigations GOP lawmaker: Trump has engaged in multiple actions that 'meet the threshold for impeachment' MORE (D-Calif.) has steered Democrats since 2003 and gives no indication she intends to step aside. But if Pelosi aspires to be the next Speaker of the House, she might need to see an overwhelming rout among Democrats in November. Democrats need to pick up at least 23 seats to tip the partisan balance.

The Hill: Pelosi’s future a question of math.

Pelosi could be challenged from within her ranks, and a growing number of Democrats running for election have promised not to support her — a byproduct of GOP efforts to tie Democratic candidates to their liberal House leader. That means Pelosi might need Democrats to pick up 30 or more seats to give her the cushion she needs to make her case to regain the gavel she wielded at the outset of former President Obama’s first term.

    “She has to probably get to 34 seats to guarantee she can still be Speaker,” a Democratic lawmaker, who wants Pelosi replaced, told The Hill’s Mike Lillis. “It’d be great — we’d love to have that. But it’s a big number.”

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, K Street is bracing for the uncertainty that comes with aligning with a lame-duck Speaker, which is what Ryan has become in the view of many Republicans after he announced his retirement.

The Hill: Lobbyists fret about lame-duck Speaker.

Congress was not expected to do much this year ahead of the midterm elections even before Ryan announced his exit. Now lobbyists are complaining that Ryan’s departure will make passing legislation that much more difficult.

OPINION

Macron meets his moment of truth, By Sylvie Kauffmann, editorial director of Le Monde, writing in The New York Times. https://nyti.ms/2Hn2LG1

Democrats have great female presidential candidates. They need to avoid the victim trap, by Jonathan Chait, commentary, New York magazine. https://nym.ag/2HnLWiw

WHERE AND WHEN

Senate convenes at 10 a.m.
Agriculture Secretary Sonny PerdueGeorge (Sonny) Ervin PerdueOn The Money: GOP angst grows over Trump's trade war | Trump promises help for 'Patriot Farmers' | Markets rebound | CBO founding director Alice Rivlin dies | Senate to vote on disaster aid bill next week GOP angst grows amid Trump trade war California jury links weedkiller Roundup to cancer, awards couple billion MORE discusses the state of rural America with the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry.

House meets at 2 p.m. for legislative business. Votes are postponed until 6:30 p.m. Minority Leader Pelosi takes questions this morning during a student town hall event organized by Georgetown University’s Institute of Politics and Public Service.

President Trump and first lady Melania Trump officially welcome French President Emmanuel Macron and Brigitte Macron to the White House. The presidents have back-to-back bilateral meetings on the schedule before a joint press conference at 11:45 a.m. Trump and Defense Secretary James MattisJames Norman MattisTrump officials slow-walk president's order to cut off Central American aid: report Overnight Defense — Presented by Huntington Ingalls Industries — Trump nominates Shanahan as Pentagon chief | House panel advances bill to block military funds for border wall | Trump defends Bolton despite differences Graham to support Defense pick he previously declared his 'adversary' MORE will meet over lunch. Later, Trump and the first lady host the administration’s first state dinner, honoring France and its president.

ELSEWHERE

> Money pours into Wisconsin for Senate race. Both parties see seat as winnable, by Stephanie Saul (New York Times)

> People voted for Trump because they were anxious, not poor, according to a deep-dive of 2012 and 2016 elections, by Olga Khazan (The Atlantic)

> Theories abound about how Democrats could win the White House in 2020, by Amy Walter (Cook Political Report)

> Gavin Newsom, California lieutenant governor and a leading candidate for governor, revises past statements to say he never formally entered rehab for alcohol abuse, by Angela Hart (Sacramento Bee)

THE CLOSER
 

 

And finally … 'Ghost Nets' and Ocean Trash: Two scientific studies find threats to marine life worse than researchers thought, as cleanup efforts attempt to tackle a serious global problem (National Geographic). Photo by Pierre Lesieur of sharks drowned in a mammoth tangle of floating ghost nets off Grand Cayman Island.