The Hill's Morning Report — How will the Kavanaugh saga impact the midterms?

 

 

 

Welcome to The Hill's Morning Report and happy Wednesday. This daily email gets you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch. (CLICK HERE to subscribe!) Jonathan Easley is hosting solo this week while co-creator Alexis Simendinger is out of town. Find him on Twitter @joneasley.

Hill.TV’s “Rising” program, starting at 8 a.m., features interviews with Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark MeadowsMark Randall MeadowsHouse panel votes to subpoena Kellyanne Conway over Hatch Act testimony Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump to appear at fundraiser for Jim Jordan: report GOP moves to block provision banning use of Defense funds for border wall MORE (R-N.C.), Sen. Bob CorkerRobert (Bob) Phillips CorkerTrump says he's 'very happy' some GOP senators have 'gone on to greener pastures' Press: How 'Nervous Nancy' trumped Trump Amash gets standing ovation at first town hall after calling for Trump's impeachment MORE (R-Tenn.) and Kevin Brock, a former assistant director at the FBI. http://thehill.com/hilltv

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The confirmation battle for President TrumpDonald John Trump2020 Democrats spar over socialism ahead of first debate Senate passes .5 billion border bill, setting up fight with House 'Teflon Don' avoids the scorn of the 'family values' GOP — again MORE’s Supreme Court nominee was never supposed to drag on this close to Nov. 6.

The allegations against Brett Kavanaugh appear to have electrified the bases of both parties with the midterm elections only five weeks away. The president predicted on Tuesday that the saga would boost turnout on the right.

            “I actually think it’s like a rallying cry for the Republicans.” - Trump

The Morning Report took that question to some of Washington’s top pollsters on both sides of the aisle. Here’s how they responded:

Celinda Lake, Democratic pollster:

“I think it will mobilize women, especially millennial women and unmarried women under 55. It will help women candidates. The Barbara LeeBarbara Jean LeeBipartisan House duo unveils amendment to block Iran strike without Congress's approval The Trump administration's plan to change the poverty line would hurt communities who need help the most GOP rep: Trump needs to retaliate against Iran to deter other hostile nations MORE study showed the issue of sexual harassment made women more likely to turn out to vote, especially millennial women. It sets up a strong agenda of stronger enforcement of sexual harassment and no taxpayer funds used for settlements. But it also has the potential to energize some Trump male voters, in particular.”

Robert Blizzard, Republican pollster:

            “I have seen an uptick in GOP enthusiasm the last couple weeks. But it’s important to note that the chaotic political environment shifts and changes at a rapid pace. If [Kavanaugh] gets confirmed this week, it could already be old news by next week.”

John Anzalone, Democratic pollster:

            “I think the GOP is kidding themselves that in an election cycle where political dynamics are being driven by women, that somehow Kavanaugh helps them. The most recent Quinnipiac University poll showed women oppose the Kavanaugh confirmation by 18 points and independents oppose him by 10. And these are shifts away from him from their previous poll. [Republicans] can spin it all they want, but sexual misconduct is not the narrative they want 35 days from an election.”

John McLaughlin, Republican pollster:

            “It will have an impact on who controls the Senate. Democrats already had the anti-Trump base motivated, so this late hit against Kavanaugh looks like an effort to deflate the conservative base. If Kavanaugh is withdrawn, you’d see fewer Republicans at the polls. It would be particularly devastating to social conservatives and Evangelicals, and would put states like Nevada, Arizona, Texas and Tennessee at risk. But If Republicans stand behind Kavanaugh, then Democrats are looking at losing seats in North Dakota and West Virginia if they don’t support him.”

Patrick Murray, independent pollster:

            “As of right now we are not seeing any notable impact on the House races.  Basically it is only reinforcing where voters already stand. This all could change though after the actual confirmation vote. And it’s not clear what that impact would be. We will have to wait and see.”

On to the news…

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the FBI investigation into claims of sexual misconduct against Kavanaugh could be completed as soon as today, keeping Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellPelosi: Congress will receive election security briefing in July Adam Scott calls on McConnell to take down 'Parks & Rec' gif Trump says he spoke to Pelosi, McConnell on border package MORE (R-Ky.) on track to hold the confirmation vote at the end of the week or over the weekend.

The Hill: Senate GOP coy on when final vote will happen.

At a rally last night in Mississippi, Trump mocked the testimony of Christine Blasey Ford, who has accused Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her at a high school party in 1982.

    How did you get home? I don't remember. How'd you get there? I don't remember. Where is the place? I don't remember. How many years ago was it? I don't know. What neighborhood was it in? I don't know. Where's the house? I don't know. Upstairs, downstairs, where was it? I don't know, but I had one beer. That's the only thing I remember." - Trump

Reuters: Amid Kavanaugh fight, Trump says it’s a “scary time” for young men.

Ford’s attorney fired back over Twitter.

 

 

Kavanaugh’s confirmation, even with the GOP holding a 51-49 majority in the Senate, is far from a sure thing. Trump’s taunts will do nothing to bring wavering Republicans on board.

The three Republican swing votes to watch are Sens. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeTrump says he's 'very happy' some GOP senators have 'gone on to greener pastures' Trump endorses McSally in Arizona Senate race Jeff Flake becoming Harvard fellow MORE (Ariz.), Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsTrump says he's 'very happy' some GOP senators have 'gone on to greener pastures' Susan Collins: Trump's 'she's not my type' defense is 'extremely bizarre' The Hill's Morning Report - In exclusive interview, Trump talks Biden, Iran, SCOTUS and reparations MORE (Maine) and Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiTrump says he's 'very happy' some GOP senators have 'gone on to greener pastures' Pressure builds to secure health care data Trump plan to strip public land conservation fund gets bipartisan pushback MORE (Alaska). Republicans can only lose one of them if all Democrats vote no.

The Hill: 2020 primaries loom over GOP senators on Kavanaugh.

Murkowski made encouraging comments for Republicans on Tuesday when she addressed questions about the veracity of the FBI investigation.

            “I think the FBI is doing what we've tasked the FBI to do. That's all I can ask for.” – Murkowski

The Hill: FBI in the eye of Senate storm.

Reuters: Some potential witnesses say they have reached out to the FBI in vain.

Flake made comments that should alarm Republicans.

“[Kavanaugh’s] interaction with the [Senate Judiciary Committee] was sharp and partisan and that concerns me. I tell myself give a little leeway because of what he’s been through, but on the other hand, we can’t have this on the court.” – Flake

There is enormous pressure on red-state Democrats up for reelection this year as well, although only Sens. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinManchin on 'Medicare for All': 'We can't even pay for Medicare for some' Overnight Energy: New EPA rule could expand officials weighing in on FOIA requests | Trump plan to strip conservation fund gets bipartisan pushback | Agriculture chief downplays climate concerns Trump plan to strip public land conservation fund gets bipartisan pushback MORE (D-W.Va.) and Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampLobbying World Pro-trade group targets Democratic leadership in push for new NAFTA On The Money: Stocks sink on Trump tariff threat | GOP caught off guard by new trade turmoil | Federal deficit grew 38 percent this fiscal year | Banks avoid taking position in Trump, Dem subpoena fight MORE (D-N.D.) remain undecided.

The conservative Judicial Crisis Network (JCN) launched a new round of television and digital ads on Tuesday in West Virginia and North Dakota, urging Manchin and Heitkamp to confirm Kavanaugh.

JCN pointed to two Public Opinion Strategies surveys released after the Kavanaugh hearings that found strong support for his confirmation in both states.

West Virginia: 58 percent support Kavanaugh’s nomination, 28 percent oppose.

North Dakota: 56 percent support Kavanaugh’s nomination, 26 percent oppose.

Perspectives

Sen. Christopher Coons (D-Del.): What the FBI investigation into Kavanaugh must look like.

Shan Wu: What to expect from the FBI investigation.

Laurie L. Levenson and John T. Nockleby: How to judge Kavanaugh’s credibility.

Former Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.): First principles at stake in Kavanaugh fight.

Anna North: How Kavanaugh’s defenders misunderstand women’s anger.

Kristin Tate: Fate of the Republicans Party is tied to Kavanaugh, so don’t flake on us.

Robin Abcarian: Boohoo hoo. Kavanaugh is not a victim.

Jenna Ellis: Women must stand up for Kavanaugh.

Howell Raines: Kavanaugh hearings show GOP senators are sexist.


LEADING THE DAY

CAMPAIGNS & POLITICS: More evidence of a “blue wave” in the House? The Hill’s Lisa Hagen dug into the latest fundraising numbers and found Democratic House candidates raking it in by the millions – astonishing figures that are on par with fundraising numbers for some Senate candidates.

Two House Democratic candidates, Amy McGrath in Kentucky and Josh Harder in California, each surpassed the $3 million mark. That’s more than a majority of Senate candidates running in this cycle’s most competitive races.

Read Hagen’s full analysis HERE.

> The Hill’s Reid Wilson takes us to California, where a GOP wipeout might give Democrats the House. Read HERE about the seats that might determine whether California Rep. Kevin McCarthyKevin Owen McCarthyNSA improperly collected US phone records in October, new documents show Top Republican considered Mueller subpoena to box in Democrats House passes .5B border funding bill MORE (R) is the next Speaker of the House or minority leader.

And across the country in Florida, The Hill’s Rafael Bernal checks in with Rep. Carlos CurbeloCarlos Luis CurbeloThe Hill's Morning Report - Trump, Biden go toe-to-toe in Iowa Ex-GOP lawmakers are face of marijuana blitz Disinvited GOP lawmaker turns up at Dem hearing MORE (Fla.), the GOP centrist fighting to hold on in a district that went big for Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham Clinton'Teflon Don' avoids the scorn of the 'family values' GOP — again Don't expect Trump-sized ratings for Democratic debates Ocasio-Cortez on Biden: 'I think that he's not a pragmatic choice' MORE in 2016 (The Hill).

Polling roundup

Quinnipiac University: Democrats lead generic House ballot by 8 points.

Strategic Research Associates: Florida governor, Senate races too close to call.

Monmouth University: Rep. Barbara ComstockBarbara Jean ComstockK Street giants scoop up coveted ex-lawmakers GOP lawmaker introduces bill to stop revolving door Ex-lawmakers face new scrutiny over lobbying MORE (R-Va.) trails state Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D) by 6 points.

NBC News/Survey Monkey: Rep. Marsha BlackburnMarsha BlackburnPelosi: Congress will receive election security briefing in July Horse abuse for ribbons and prizes has to stop YouTube may move children's content to separate app MORE (R) is tied with former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) for Tennessee Senate; Brian Kemp (R) and Stacey Abrams (D) are tied in race for Alabama governor; Democrat Mike Espy is positioned to finish ahead of Republican Chris McDaniel and advance to a runoff election against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) for Mississippi Senate.

More from the campaign trail … Trump is already sizing up his potential 2020 Democratic challengers (The Hill) … Takeaways from last night’s debate between Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonDemocrats target Florida Hispanics in 2020 Poll: Six Democrats lead Trump in Florida match-ups How Jim Bridenstine recruited an old enemy to advise NASA MORE (D-Fla.) and Republican  Gov. Rick Scott (The Hill) … Jason Kander ends bid for Kansas City mayor to focus on depression, PTSD (The Kansas City Star) ... A Hazmat team responded to a suspicious package delivered to Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzWhite House to convene social media summit after new Trump attacks GOP lays debate trap for 2020 Democrats O'Rourke on Senate bid backer Beyoncé: I will have to 'earn her support' for 2020 MORE’s (R-Texas) campaign headquarters in Houston on Tuesday (The Weekly Standard).

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

 WHITE HOUSE & ADMINISTRATION: A couple of news stories broke on Tuesday about the president’s personal life…

The New York Times has a deep dive into Trump’s finances.

From the Times:

            “The president has long sold himself as a self-made billionaire, but a Times investigation found that he received at least $413 million in today’s dollars from his father’s real estate empire, much of it through tax dodges in the 1990s.”

The New York Times: 11 takeaways from the Times investigation into Trump’s wealth.

The New York State Tax Department is reviewing the allegations in the article (CNBC).

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders responds:

    Fred Trump has been gone for nearly 20 years and it’s sad to witness this misleading attack against the Trump family by the failing New York Times. Many decades ago the IRS reviewed and signed off on these transactions. The New York Times’s and other media outlets‘ credibility with the American people is at an all-time low because they are consumed with attacking the president and his family 24/7 instead of reporting the news.”

And The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Trump sought a restraining order against Stormy Daniels, the adult-film actress who claims to have had an affair with the president.

The threat of a restraining order was apparently a last-ditch effort to keep Daniels from talking about the alleged affair. Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen has claimed that Trump directed him pay $130,000 to Daniels to not discuss the allegations.

Cohen has pleaded guilty to charges of bank fraud and one campaign finance violation pertaining to the payment.

Elsewhere within the administration, some high level meetings are in the works:

Secretary of State Mike PompeoMichael (Mike) Richard Pompeo2 US service members killed in Afghanistan after Pompeo visit The Hill's Morning Report - Democratic debates: Miami nice or spice? State Department need not be at odds with itself on Republic of Cyprus policy MORE will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un next week. On the docket: A potential second summit between Trump and Kim as the two leaders continue negotiations over Pyongyang’s nuclear reach (The Associated Press).

And later this month, the president will meet with executives from Google and other internet companies amid allegations from Republicans that the tech giants are discriminating against conservative speech online (Reuters).

Meanwhile, one highly anticipated meeting has been delayed – Trump will not meet with Deputy Attorney General Rod RosensteinRod RosensteinMueller to testify publicly on July 17 Trump: Appointing Sessions was my biggest mistake Trump blasts Mueller, decries 'witch hunt' at 2020 launch MORE until the Kavanaugh process is complete. Speculation is swirling about whether they’ll negotiate the parameters of Rosenstein’s exit from the Justice Department, if Trump doesn’t fire him first. Rosenstein is in charge of special counsel Robert MuellerRobert (Bob) Swan MuellerTop Republican considered Mueller subpoena to box in Democrats Kamala Harris says her Justice Dept would have 'no choice' but to prosecute Trump for obstruction Dem committees win new powers to investigate Trump MORE’s probe (The Hill).

More news from the administration … Controversial blog posts written by a senior Consumer Financial Protection Bureau official have plunged the divided agency into a bitter battle over racial discrimination (The Hill) … The Trump administration's lawsuit against California has opened a new front in the net neutrality wars (The Hill) … The Trump administration has abruptly ended a key law enforcement program aimed at protecting wildlife refuges (The Hill).

The Morning Report is created by journalists Jonathan Easley jeasley@thehill.com & Alexis Simendinger asimendinger@thehill.com. Suggestions? Tips? We want to hear from you! Share The Hill’s reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to SUBSCRIBE!


OPINION

Trump’s trade deal is worse than the North American Free Trade Agreement, by Gustavo A. Flores-Macías and Mariano Sánchez-Talanquer, The New York Times. https://nyti.ms/2RjPXFS

Trump is winning on trade, by Krishnadev Calamur, The Atlantic. http://bit.ly/2P4Hu7X

WHERE AND WHEN

The House is in recess and will reconvene on Nov. 13.

The Senate reconvenes at 10 a.m. and will consider the long-term reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration.

The president meets with Pompeo and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki HaleyNimrata (Nikki) HaleyTrump rules out Haley joining 2020 ticket The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump targets Iran with new sanctions Nikki Haley blasts Roy Moore's Senate bid: 'He does not represent our Republican Party' MORE.

Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe Biden'Teflon Don' avoids the scorn of the 'family values' GOP — again Don't expect Trump-sized ratings for Democratic debates Hickenlooper laughs off lack of recognition by security guard at Democratic debate MORE is raising money in Hollywood for his American Possibilities PAC. http://bit.ly/2xRGrBI

ELSEWHERE

> Ricin detected in mail sent to Pentagon (CNN).

> Amazon raises its minimum wage to $15, putting pressure on Walmart and Target to follow (CNBC).

> “New Fox” solidifies executive roster with Lachlan Murdoch at the top (The Hollywood Reporter).

> Tax cuts provide limited boost to workers’ wages, with companies instead directing savings to worker training programs (The Wall Street Journal).

> Deaths of Instagram model, other women shock Iraq (The Associated Press).

> A photo journal of undocumented immigrant workers in California’s Central Valley (The California Sunday Magazine).

THE CLOSER

And finally...

October baseball is here. Last night, the Colorado Rockies advanced to the National League divisional series, defeating the Chicago Cubs in an epic 13 inning game. Tonight, the New York Yankees host the Oakland Athletics in the American League wild card round.

Fans in those cities, as well as in Houston, Cleveland, Boston, Atlanta, Los Angeles and Milwaukee will be glued to their televisions sets for fall baseball over the next five weeks.

A look back on this date in in 1951: New York Giants outfielder Bobby Thomson hit the “Shot Heard Round the World,” a walk-off three-run home run against the Brooklyn Dodgers to clinch the National League pennant.

Giants broadcaster Russ Hodges’s call, “The Giants win the pennant! The Giants win the pennant!,” is one of the most famous in baseball history. The Giants would go on to lose to the Yankees in the World Series.