The Hill's Morning Report — Will Trump strike a deal with Chuck and Nancy?




Welcome to The Hill’s Morning Report and happy Tuesday! Our newsletter gets you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch, co-created by Jonathan Easley and Alexis Simendinger. (CLICK HERE to subscribe!) On Twitter, find us at @joneasley and @asimendinger.

Hill.TV’s “Rising” program, starting at 8 a.m., features interviews with Rep. Karen BassKaren Ruth BassAdvocate says Native American women more likely to be victims of violence This week: Trump set for Senate setback on emergency declaration The Hill's Morning Report - Pelosi's challenge: Getting Dems back on same page MORE (D-Calif.), the incoming chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus, and Dr. Leana Wen, president of the Planned Parenthood Federation of America.


A possible partial government shutdown is only 10 days away...

Democratic leaders are headed to the White House today for negotiations with President TrumpDonald John TrumpMueller report findings could be a 'good day' for Trump, Dem senator says Trump officials heading to China for trade talks next week Showdown looms over Mueller report MORE, as the two sides seek a spending agreement before the Dec. 21 deadline.

The endgame is unclear, and Trump’s controversial border wall is at the center of it.

Democrats, who will have a majority in the House next month, are under pressure not to give the president any money for a wall.

Trump is demanding a $5 billion down payment and threatening to veto any bill that falls short of that mark.

The Senate’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) bill includes $1.6 billion for border security, leaving the parties billions of dollars apart.

The Hill: Trump, Democrats begin divisive wall negotiations.

The Associated Press: Trump to meet with Democrats about border wall, shutdown.

Don’t expect an agreement to come out of today’s meeting between Trump, Senate Minority Leader Charles SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis Schumer4 in 5 Americans say they support net neutrality: poll GOP senator: Trump's criticism of McCain 'deplorable' Schumer to introduce bill naming Senate office building after McCain amid Trump uproar MORE (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia D'Alesandro PelosiPelosi, Dems plot strategy after end of Mueller probe Coons after Russia probe: House Dems need to use power in 'focused and responsible way' Trump, Congress brace for Mueller findings MORE (D-Calif.), but the tone of this first round of negotiations may determine whether they can bridge the divide before the holidays.

In a joint statement released late Monday night, Schumer and Pelosi said Republicans would bear the blame for a shutdown.

“Republicans still control the House, the Senate, and the White House, and they have the power to keep government open. Our country cannot afford a Trump Shutdown, especially at this time of economic uncertainty. This holiday season, the president knows full well that his wall proposal does not have the votes to pass the House and Senate, and should not be an obstacle to a bipartisan agreement.”

Democrats lost the shutdown fight earlier this year.

This time around, Democrats would be just as happy to kick the wall fight to 2019, when they’ll control the House.

Democratic leaders have lined up behind a package that would address six of the seven unresolved appropriations bills, with a continuing resolution to fund DHS, effectively forcing another border spending fight next year.

And the spending fight could get even more complicated in the coming days.

Senate Majority Whip John CornynJohn CornynConservatives wage assault on Mueller report Senate GOP poised to go 'nuclear' on Trump picks GOP rep to introduce constitutional amendment to limit Supreme Court seats to 9 MORE (R-Texas) said Monday there could be a “path” to linking a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill to a year-end spending bill (The Hill).

The criminal justice reform bill has split Senate Republicans.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellConservatives wage assault on Mueller report Overnight Energy: Interior reverses decision at heart of Zinke criminal probe | Dem divisions deepen over approach to climate change | GM to add 400 workers to build electric cars Trump: Green New Deal 'the most preposterous thing' and 'easy to beat' MORE (R-Ky.) has indicated he will not have time to bring it up for a vote during the lame-duck session, saying the Senate needs to focus on confirming Trump’s judicial nominees for the rest of the year.

Many lawmakers view the bill as a rare bipartisan achievement and an opportunity to end this Congress on a high note.

The Hill: GOP fights piling up for McConnell.

The criminal justice reform bill has the backing of the White House. Last night, Jared KushnerJared Corey KushnerBill Maher questions whether Democrats put 'too much trust' in Mueller report Kushner to cooperate with Judiciary document requests Washington Monthly editor: Parents 'routinely' use wealth to get children into college MORE made a rare media appearance, telling Fox News Channel’s Sean Hannity that he’s optimistic the bill will be passed before Christmas.

“The president’s built an amazing bipartisan coalition of Democrats and Republicans, and we’re very close right now. And hopefully this will get to the floor and we’ll be able to have a big bipartisan celebration before Christmas.”

More from Capitol Hill … Agriculture Committee chairmen Rep. K. Michael Conaway (R-Texas), Sen. Pat RobertsCharles (Pat) Patrick RobertsPompeo jokes he'll be secretary of State until Trump 'tweets me out of office' Senators offer bipartisan bill to fix 'retail glitch' in GOP tax law Kansas Senate race splits wide open without Pompeo MORE (R-Kan.) and ranking members Rep. Collin PetersonCollin Clark PetersonThe 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority Democrats, Trump battle over 75 'pivot' counties in Midwest Dems struggle to unify after GOP embarrasses them on procedure MORE (D-Minn.) and Sen. Debbie StabenowDeborah (Debbie) Ann StabenowChris Evans talks NATO, Marvel secrets on Capitol Hill Overnight Health Care: Senators grill drug execs over high prices | Progressive Dems unveil Medicare for all bill | House Dems to subpoena Trump officials over family separations Senators grill drug execs over high prices MORE (D-Mich.) on Monday released the text of the 2018 farm bill conference report for action this week ...GOP lawmakers call for autopsy on ‘historic’ losses (The Hill) … Fractious GOP vows to unify in House minority (The Hill) … Insurgent Dems amplify push for term limits on party leaders (The Hill) … K Street works to court minority lawmakers (The Hill).




WHITE HOUSE & ADMINISTRATION: Three days after tweeting that his second White House chief of staff, John KellyJohn Francis KellyMORE, would leave at the end of the year, Trump continued to search for Kelly’s successor. Nick Ayers, the president’s first choice for the job, turned him down and tweeted his decision to pursue the next step in his political career in Georgia, along with his family.

The Washington Post: `There was no Plan B’

The New York Times: Trump tried to arrange for Ayers to fire Kelly.

In seeking to bring the 36-year-old Ayers into the Oval Office, Trump signaled a desire for political skills in his next chief to support his reelection bid and to help battle the special counsel’s Russia probe, plus a storm of investigations House Democrats have in mind for next year.

One possible alternative pick, Rep. Mark MeadowsMark Randall MeadowsConservatives wage assault on Mueller report Trump, Congress brace for Mueller findings CNN's Toobin: 'Swirl of suspicion' about more indictments not justified MORE (R-N.C.), was willing to say publicly on Monday that he covets what’s often described as the toughest job in Washington (The Hill).

The conservative chairman of the House Freedom Caucus is an eager advocate for Trump’s reelection who often shares his advice with the president. Meadows supports Trump’s conclusion that the Russia probe being conducted by special counsel Robert MuellerRobert Swan MuellerSasse: US should applaud choice of Mueller to lead Russia probe MORE is a “witch hunt” and that former Justice Department officials harbored political biases in favor of Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonIf Mueller's report lacks indictments, collusion is a delusion Conservatives wage assault on Mueller report The wisdom of Trump's lawyers, and the accountability that must follow Mueller's report MORE and against Trump as he entered office. Meadows, of course, knows many House members on both sides of the aisle, but he does not have executive branch experience in Washington.



Perspectives on personnel changes:

Monica Hesse: John Kelly and the myth of the ‘adult in the room’

Niall Stanage: Ayers decision casts harsh light on Trump.

Matthew J. Dickinson: The surprisingly normal reason Trump wants a new chief of staff

Jonathan Allen: Trump needs a chief of staff for the `worst of times’

Caroline Fredrickson: Will William Barr be Trump’s Roy Cohn?


Environmental Protection Agency water rule: The administration is expected today to unveil a plan that would weaken federal clean water rules designed to protect millions of acres of wetlands and thousands of miles of streams nationwide from pesticide runoff and other pollutants. The rule is expected to appear in the Federal Register and is intended to replace an Obama-era regulation known as Waters of the United States (The New York Times).

Troops at the border: About 2,200 of the active duty service members sent by Trump to the border with Mexico before the midterm elections will be pulled out before the holidays and sent elsewhere, officials said on Monday. The deployments to border states to back Customs and Border Protection agents were viewed by Trump critics as a political stunt and waste of military resources. The estimated price tag was at least $210 million, according to a report sent to Congress in November (The Associated Press).

Defense Department funding: A week after calling a $716 billion defense budget “crazy,” Trump is poised to approve a Pentagon budget for fiscal 2020 that is almost 5 percent higher. The president gave a green light to Defense Secretary James MattisJames Norman MattisOvernight Defense: Pentagon chief under investigation over Boeing ties | Trump uses visual aids to tout progress against ISIS | Pentagon, Amnesty International spar over civilian drone deaths Pentagon watchdog probing whether acting chief boosted Boeing Overnight Defense: Judge says Trump can't implement transgender policy | Trump floats admitting Brazil to NATO | Mattis returning to Stanford MORE to submit a $750 billion budget proposal (Politico).

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau: Kathy Kraninger, the newly confirmed director of the independent agency created by the Dodd-Frank financial reform law eight years ago, has begun a five-year term that comes with significant executive power. Sylvan Lane reports what to watch during her tenure.


INVESTIGATIONS: The president on Monday defended payments made by his former attorney Michael Cohen to bury stories from two women who claim to have had extramarital affairs with Trump.

Over Twitter, Trump described the payments as legal, “private transactions” that are being criminalized by his adversaries and leveraged by Cohen, who is cooperating with prosecutors in hopes of receiving a reduced sentence.





The Associated Press: Where the Russia investigation stands.

Over the weekend, the Manhattan district attorney’s office referred to the president as “Individual-1” in a sentencing memo for Cohen.

Cohen has pleaded guilty to a range of crimes pertaining to his personal business endeavors. But he’s also pleaded guilty to a campaign finance violation for arranging election year payments aimed at keeping adult-film star Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal, a former Playboy model, from talking about affairs they say they had with Trump.

Cohen told prosecutors in the Southern District of New York that Trump instructed him to make the payments. Prosecutors there are pursuing the matter as a campaign finance violation, arguing that the payments were made to help get Trump elected and therefore exceed the maximum donations allowed under law.

This is a legal grey area. While Cohen pleaded guilty to the campaign finance charge, the president would vigorously fight back, arguing that there are many other reasons why he wouldn’t want news of the alleged affairs to get out.

Democrats are already talking about impeaching or jailing Trump for arranging the payments (The Associated Press).

The New York Times writes:

Though it is rare to charge a politician with campaign-finance crimes over hush-money payments to mistresses, one clear precedent stands out: the Justice Department’s prosecution in 2012 of John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator and 2004 Democratic vice-presidential nominee, over similar payments to hide a pregnant mistress while he was running for president in 2008. … [But] that case ended with a mistrial on five charges and an acquittal on one.”

Greg Sargent: Trump’s rage tweets expose the depth of his corruption.

Mark Penn: Cohen’s plea deal concocted by prosecutors to snare Trump.

More from the investigations front … Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul ManafortPaul John ManafortBill Maher questions whether Democrats put 'too much trust' in Mueller report Trump, Congress brace for Mueller findings CNN's Toobin: 'Swirl of suspicion' about more indictments not justified MORE will be in court today, where a federal judge will hear arguments about whether he violated a plea deal by lying to Mueller’s team (The Hill) … Alleged Russian agent Maria Butina has reached a plea deal and will cooperate with prosecutors in a case involving the Kremlin’s efforts to infiltrate the National Rifle Association (ABC News) … The pressure is on Congress to secure the 2020 presidential race from foreign cyberattacks (The Hill).

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The Senate has long stood in defense of Democracy, and must again, seven paragraphs written by 44 former U.S. senators from both parties in an open letter to Senate colleagues, and as opinion contributors to The Washington Post. “We are at an inflection point in which the foundational principles of our democracy and our national security interests are at stake, and the rule of law and the ability of our institutions to function freely and independently must be upheld.”

Theresa May chooses the lesser of two humiliations, by Andrew Grice, The Independent.


The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. and will resume consideration of Justin Muzinich to be deputy secretary of Treasury, as well as Jonathan Kobes to be a judge for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit. The Senate may also consider a war powers resolution dealing with Yemen.

The House convenes at 10 a.m. to consider 13 bills under suspension of the rules. Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanFormer Dem candidate says he faced cultural barriers on the campaign trail because he is working-class Former House candidate and ex-ironworker says there is 'buyer's remorse' for Trump in Midwest Head of top hedge fund association to step down MORE (R-Wis.) will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. … Google CEO Sundar Pichai will testify at 10 a.m. before the House Judiciary Committee on "Transparency and Accountability: Examining Google and its Data Collection, Use and Filtering Practices." … Reps. Mark PocanMark William PocanTwo lawmakers just debated the merits of Nickelback on the House floor On The Money: Mnuchin urges Congress to raise debt limit 'as soon as possible' | NY officials subpoena Trump Org's longtime insurer | Dems offer bill to tax financial transactions Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez back 'end the forever war' pledge MORE (D-Wis.) and Pramila JayapalPramila JayapalOn The Money: Trump issues emergency order grounding Boeing 737 Max jets | Senate talks over emergency resolution collapse | Progressives seek defense freeze in budget talks Progressives seek defense freeze in budget talks House Dems reintroduce the Dream Act MORE (D-Wash.), the co-chairs of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, will hold a media availability at 1:15 p.m.

The president meets with Schumer and Pelosi at 11:30 a.m., joined by the vice president. He will sign the “Iraq and Syria Genocide Relief and Accountability Act of 2018” at 3:45 p.m.

Pence will attend the Senate GOP policy luncheon in the Capitol at 12:45 p.m.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the U.S. producer price index report for November at 8:30 a.m.

Deputy Secretary of State John J. Sullivan at 9 a.m. kicks off a ministerial meeting about counterterrorism cooperation with senior officials from Argentina, the Bahamas, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Honduras, Jamaica, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Trinidad and Tobago. They will discuss threats posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, al Qaeda and Hezbollah. Senior counterterrorism and security officials from the departments of Justice, Treasury, Homeland Security, and the U.S. intelligence community will participate.

First lady Melania TrumpMelania TrumpThe Hill's Morning Report — Washington readies for Mueller end game Schwarzenegger tells Trump to 'listen to the first lady' before attacking McCain The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump steps up attacks on McCain MORE participates in the annual Toys for Tots toy drive at noon at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling in Washington, hosted by the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve.

The National Immigrant Integration Conference concludes a three-day event today about the state of immigrant and refugee integration in America at the Crystal Gateway Marriott in Arlington, Va., with speakers including Reps. Luis Gutiérrez (D-Ill.), Grace MengGrace MengMuslim man denied green card after being detained, allegedly served pork: report Feminine hygiene products to be available to House lawmakers using congressional funds First DACA recipient to become Rhodes scholar to attend State of the Union MORE (D-N.Y.), chairman-elect of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Joaquin CastroJoaquin CastroBooker takes early lead in 2020 endorsements Julian Castro hints at brother Joaquin's Senate run Dems prepare next steps after Trump's veto MORE (D-Texas), Carlos CurbeloCarlos Luis CurbeloEx-GOP lawmaker joins marijuana trade group Dems think they're beating Trump in emergency declaration battle Trump suggests Heller lost reelection bid because he was 'hostile' during 2016 presidential campaign MORE (R-Fla.), and Sen. Bob MenendezRobert (Bob) MenendezThe Hill's 12:30 Report: Manafort sentenced to total of 7.5 years in prison Acting Defense chief calls Graham an 'ally' after tense exchange William Barr is right man for the times MORE (D-N.J.). The program begins at 8:30 a.m.


> United Kingdom - Brexit: Prime Minister Theresa May on Monday delayed a parliamentary vote scheduled today on Great Britain’s planned exit in March from the European Union, thrusting Brexit and perhaps May’s tenure into the unknown (Reuters). … Brexit explained (The Associated Press).

> Iran: A senior Revolutionary Guards commander said Iran had recently carried out a ballistic missile test but he did not specify the type of missile, according to a Fars News report today (Reuters). “The reaction of the Americans shows that this test was very important for them and that’s why they were shouting,” said Amirali Hajizadeh, head of the Revolutionary Guards’ airspace division.

> France: President Emmanuel Macron, during a televised national address on Monday, pledged to cut taxes for pensioners and raise the minimum wage in January but refused to reinstate a wealth tax, as Macron responded after a month of deliberations to a wave of protests that have challenged his authority (Reuters). The unrest in France triggered concessions from the president, but also negative economic consequences there (The New York Times).

> Artificial Intelligence: Experts interviewed as part of a research study mostly have a sunny outlook about the impact of artificial intelligence over the next decade. Their primary concerns about the emerging technology center around what it will mean for human productivity and free will (Pew Research).


And finally … Holiday wreaths at Arlington National Cemetery began as gravesite tributes in 1992 and continue this year with “Wreaths Across America” … Donated wreaths will be placed at gravesites at the national cemetery in Virginia on Dec. 15, as part of National Wreaths Across America Day (The Associated Press).

Volunteers (and wreaths) are still needed to decorate veterans’ headstones. Those who want to assist on Saturday or would like to sponsor a wreath can find information here (WTOP) and HERE.