The Hill's Morning Report - Senate to vote on reopening government as Trump sinks in the polls

 

 

 

Welcome to The Hill’s Morning Report, and happy Thursday! Our newsletter gets you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch. Co-creators are Jonathan Easley and Alexis Simendinger (CLICK HERE to subscribe!). On Twitter, you can find us at @joneasley and @asimendinger.

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The Senate will vote today on dueling proposals to reopen the government, as a raft of new polling data shows President TrumpDonald John TrumpBill Kristol resurfaces video of Pence calling Obama executive action on immigration a 'profound mistake' ACLU says planned national emergency declaration is 'clear abuse of presidential power' O'Rourke says he'd 'absolutely' take down border wall near El Paso if he could MORE getting pummeled over the shutdown fight.

The surveys:

The Associated Press-NORC poll: Sixty percent say Trump bears a great deal of responsibility for the impasse, compared to 31 percent who blame Democrats. The president’s approval rating sank 8 points month-over-month, to 34 percent positive.

The Hill-Harris X poll: Trump’s approval rating falls in third consecutive survey.

CBS News poll: Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia D'Alesandro PelosiBill Kristol resurfaces video of Pence calling Obama executive action on immigration a 'profound mistake' Winners and losers in the border security deal House passes border deal, setting up Trump to declare emergency MORE (D-Calif.) has the edge over Trump in budget negotiations. Seventy percent say a border wall isn’t worth shutting down the government over, including 43 percent of Republicans.

The Morning Consult/Politico Poll: Trump disapproval rating hits record high of 57 percent.

Trump’s top economic adviser Kevin Hassett warned on Wednesday that U.S. economic growth could be zero percent this quarter if the shutdown lasts through March. Trump’s acting chief of staff Mick MulvaneyJohn (Mick) Michael MulvaneyPuerto Rico governor threatens legal action over national emergency declaration: 'See you in court' Trump to sign border deal, declare national emergency Trump touts deal as providing B for border security MORE is preparing for the shutdown to last into April, according to The Washington Post.

Amid that backdrop, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellBill Kristol resurfaces video of Pence calling Obama executive action on immigration a 'profound mistake' Winners and losers in the border security deal House passes border deal, setting up Trump to declare emergency MORE (R-Ky.) will bring two government funding bills to the floor today, although neither is expected to get the necessary 60 votes for passage.

The Senate will first vote on Trump’s proposal to extend protections for some immigrants in the country illegally in exchange for the $5.7 billion he’s requesting for a border wall. The second bill would open the government for three weeks, ostensibly to give lawmakers more time to negotiate over border wall money.

“It’s hard to imagine 60 votes developing for either one.” — Sen. Roy BluntRoy Dean BluntGOP braces for Trump's emergency declaration The border deal: What made it in, what got left out Contractor back pay not included in shutdown deal MORE (R-Mo.)

While both bills appear doomed, the votes will be closely watched to see which party suffers more defectors and whether the results could spark new negotiations.

The Hill: GOP seeks to chip away at Dem unity with shutdown votes.

The Associated Press: Votes on Senate bills seen as progress even if they fail.

Is there another way out? House Democrats are preparing a new proposal that would give Trump somewhere in the neighborhood of $5 billion for border security, as long as it’s not used on a physical barrier (Reuters).

Rep. James Clyburn (S.C.), the third ranking Democrat in the House, said the money could be used for “smart wall” technologies, such as drones and X-rays, as well as for additional border agents.

It’s unclear if Trump would go for something like that. The president has said he’ll veto anything that doesn’t include $5.7 billion specifically for a wall, but Republicans are sure to be citing Clyburn’s remarks heading into the weekend.

Meanwhile, a showdown over the State of the Union address ended late Wednesday when Trump agreed to postpone the speech in the House chamber until “the shutdown is over” (The Hill).

The president struck a conciliatory tone heading into day 34 of the shutdown after Pelosi withdrew his invitation to address the House chamber. Trump had also considered options to speak from outside Washington.

 

 

 

Earlier in the day, Trump told Pelosi he intended to accept the Speaker’s Jan. 3 invitation to address the American people on Tuesday. But the president appeared boxed in by Pelosi after she officially withdrew the offer, raising questions about when and where he would speak, and whether networks would cover the address.

“The House of Representatives will not consider a concurrent resolution authorizing the president's State of the Union address in the House chamber until the government has opened.” — Pelosi

The House canceled votes on Friday, when the second pay period for 800,000 federal workers ends without compensation, making it almost certain the shutdown will drag on through Tuesday.

 

 

LEADING THE DAY

CONGRESS: The public testimony of former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen had been billed as the must-watch season opener for House Democratic investigations. But citing public remarks by the president and by members of Trump’s legal team, Cohen said he won’t appear on Capitol Hill on Feb. 7 (The Hill).

He’s expected to report to federal prison to begin a three-year sentence in March, raising questions about whether his House appearance is postponed or effectively canceled. Democrats are already talking about forcing Cohen to testify through a subpoena.

“Due to ongoing threats against his family from President Trump and [Trump lawyer Rudy] Giuliani, as recently as this weekend, as well as Mr. Cohen's continued cooperation with ongoing investigations, by advice of counsel, Mr. Cohen’s appearance will be postponed to a later date,” Cohen legal spokesman Lanny Davis said on Wednesday.

The president weighed in to say he thought his former “fixer,” who pleaded guilty to lying to Congress and is cooperating with special counsel Robert MuellerRobert Swan MuellerSasse: US should applaud choice of Mueller to lead Russia probe MORE, is threatened by the truth (The Hill).

Separately, Democrats who lead the House Oversight and Reform Committee on Wednesday announced they will investigate the White House security clearance process, including how it impacted Trump son-in-law and West Wing senior adviser Jared KushnerJared Corey KushnerThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by the American Academy of HIV Medicine - Will there be any last-minute shutdown drama? Rule change sharpens Dem investigations into Trump Drama hits Senate Intel panel’s Russia inquiry MORE (The Hill). … And the House Foreign Affairs Committee said it plans to probe whether Trump’s business interests are linked to foreign policy decisions (CNN).

According to Deutsche Bank today, the House Financial Services and Intelligence committees asked the lender for information about ties to Trump as part of Democrat-led inquiries. The bank said it is in discussions with the committees (Reuters).

Congressional Black Caucus member Rep. Sheila Jackson LeeSheila Jackson LeeFive takeaways from acting AG's fiery House hearing Democrat to acting AG: 'We are not joking here' Whitaker takes grilling from House lawmakers MORE (D-Texas), who is embroiled in a lawsuit claiming she fired an aide who said she was sexually assaulted by a supervisor at the CBC’s foundation, said on Wednesday she will resign as the foundation’s chairwoman. The veteran lawmaker known for her assertive style also stepped down from a House Judiciary subcommittee chairmanship for the time being (The New York Times).

 

 

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-CortezHillicon Valley: New York says goodbye to Amazon's HQ2 | AOC reacts: 'Anything is possible' | FTC pushes for record Facebook fine | Cyber threats to utilities on the rise Poll finds Democrats oppose certain aspects of border deal Ocasio-Cortez celebrates Amazon canceling New York offices: 'Anything is possible' MORE (D-N.Y.), the liberal firebrand from Queens, is using her command of social media and her moment in the political spotlight to tackle some of her targets, employing communications techniques some liken to Trump’s (The Hill). 

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

POLITICS: Another day, another name atop the Democratic presidential field.

The 2020 Democratic primary will be a long and brutal slog, so early surveys should be taken with a grain of salt.

But California Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisHillicon Valley: New York says goodbye to Amazon's HQ2 | AOC reacts: 'Anything is possible' | FTC pushes for record Facebook fine | Cyber threats to utilities on the rise O’Rourke heading to Wisconsin amid 2020 speculation 2020 Dems slam Trump's plan to declare national emergency MORE has moved to the top of the latest Daily Kos straw poll with 27 percent support, followed by Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenWarren's 'ultra wealth' tax is misleading Hillicon Valley: New York says goodbye to Amazon's HQ2 | AOC reacts: 'Anything is possible' | FTC pushes for record Facebook fine | Cyber threats to utilities on the rise O’Rourke heading to Wisconsin amid 2020 speculation MORE of Massachusetts at 18 percent, former Vice President Joe BidenJoseph (Joe) Robinette BidenO’Rourke heading to Wisconsin amid 2020 speculation NBC, CNN to host first two Democratic presidential primary debates Feinstein says she thinks Biden will run after meeting with him MORE of Delaware at 13 percent, Vermont independent Sen. Bernie SandersBernard (Bernie) SandersHillicon Valley: New York says goodbye to Amazon's HQ2 | AOC reacts: 'Anything is possible' | FTC pushes for record Facebook fine | Cyber threats to utilities on the rise O’Rourke heading to Wisconsin amid 2020 speculation Amazon to pay Bernie Sanders in federal income taxes: report MORE at 12 percent and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke at 8 percent.

The 2020 Democratic presidential contenders are preparing to unload on the president. Amie Parnes reports that Democrats are increasingly calling Trump a racist, and have no intentions of backing away from that attack line in what is expected to be one of the ugliest presidential battles in modern politics (The Hill).

The Republican National Committee will vote Friday to declare the party’s “undivided support” for Trump’s presidency in an effort to block any potential GOP primary challengers (The Associated Press).

Tune into C-SPAN today for the latest. Biden will address the U.S. Conference of Mayors annual winter meeting at 8:45 a.m. Sens. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerO’Rourke heading to Wisconsin amid 2020 speculation 2020 Dems slam Trump's plan to declare national emergency NBC, CNN to host first two Democratic presidential primary debates MORE (D-N.J.) and Jeff MerkleyJeffrey (Jeff) Alan MerkleyThe border deal: What made it in, what got left out Lawmakers introduce bill to fund government, prevent shutdown Dems wary of killing off filibuster MORE (D-Ore.) will take the stage beginning at 4:15 p.m. Other speakers today include South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who is running for president, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) and Eric Garcetti, the Democratic mayor of Los Angeles. You can find the full schedule HERE.

More from the campaign trailBiden’s long political record attracts scrutiny, including a speech he gave that boosted an incumbent GOP lawmaker in a tight House race (The New York Times) … Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (D), who is considering a presidential run, is defending his controversial “stop and frisk” program and says he opposes legalizing marijuana (The Hill).

The Morning Report is created by journalists Jonathan Easley & Alexis Simendinger. We want to hear from you! @jeasley@thehill.com and @asimendinger@thehill.com. We invite you to share The Hill’s reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to SUBSCRIBE!

OPINION

Will Democrats ever give Trump on a chance on border security talks?, by Marc Lotter, opinion contributor for The Hill and former press secretary for Vice President Pence. http://bit.ly/2DvThZS

The shutdown has backfired on Trump, by Gregory J. Wallance, opinion contributor for The Hill. http://bit.ly/2UepkD8

WHERE AND WHEN

The House meets at 9 a.m.

The Senate convenes at 11 a.m.

The president has no public events on his schedule.

Treasury Secretary Steven MnuchinSteven Terner MnuchinThe next two years of federal housing policy could be positive under Mark Calabria The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by the American Academy of HIV Medicine - Will there be any last-minute shutdown drama? Trump mulling 60-day delay for China tariff deadline MORE will speak at the U.S. Conference of Mayors luncheon in Washington at 2 p.m.

Secretary of State Mike PompeoMichael (Mike) Richard PompeoOvernight Defense: Trump to sign funding deal, declare national emergency | Shanahan says allies will be consulted on Afghanistan | Dem demands Khashoggi documents Senate confirms Trump pick William Barr as new attorney general Top Dem demands State Department documents on Khashoggi killing MORE meets with British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt at 12:15 p.m. at the State Department.

During a period of spotty government economic data resulting from the partial federal shutdown, the Commerce Department comes through with its weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m.

ELSEWHERE

> Venezuela: The United States and Venezuela plunged into a new face-off during the country’s leadership struggles  (The Associated Press). The president of Venezuela's National Assembly, Juan Guaidó (pictured below), took an oath on Wednesday as interim president amid nationwide demonstrations against Nicolás Maduro this week.

 

 

During a fast-moving situation with uncertain geopolitical implications, the U.S. officially recognized Guaidó as Venezuela’s leader after describing Maduro, who was sworn in for a second six-year term earlier this month, as the “former president.”

Pompeo late Wednesday said in a statement that the U.S. government rejects Maduro’s demand that U.S. diplomats leave Venezuela (The Hill). Pompeo called on the Venezuelan armed forces to refrain from endangering American personnel or face “appropriate actions” (The Washington Post).

> Uninsured: Women and young adults helped drive up the U.S. rate of the uninsured to its highest level in four years, according to the Gallup National Health and Well-Being Index released on Wednesday. The increase is equivalent to about 7 million more adults without health coverage. Federal policy changes and more expensive insurance premiums are thought to have contributed to the rise.

> Flying cars! The Boeing Company successfully completed the first test of a prototype pilotless passenger vehicle that flies. The trial run, which took place Tuesday in Virginia, included takeoff, hover and landing, but the vehicle did not fly forward (USA Today).

 

 

THE CLOSER

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! Inspired by today’s anniversary of the first, transformative sale of Apple Macintosh computers in 1984, we’re eager for some smart guesses drawn from past and current headlines tied to Apple.

Email your responses to jeasley@thehill.com or asimendinger@thehill.com, and please add “Quiz” to subject lines. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

Why did some Wall Street analysts trim projections this month for the price of Apple stock?

  1. Apple’s CEO focused on education during this week’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland
  2. iPhone sales are projected to decline in 2019
  3. The company announced it will stop making iPhones
  4. MacBook laptops were unpopular with consumers in 2018

When Steve Jobs ­unveiled the first Apple Macintosh computer with its 9-inch screen 35 years ago, what was the price tag?

  1. $2,500
  2. $1,500
  3. $850
  4. $500

Apple ran into some controversy last year when it unveiled the latest version of the Apple Watch with what new function?

  1. Fitness activity tracking
  2. Electronic ignition of consumer vehicles
  3. Remote piloting of recreational drones
  4. Detects cardiac performance akin to a medical electrocardiogram

Apple aired the now-iconic commercial for its Macintosh computer during the 1984 Super Bowl. The ad was created for the company on a small budget by which famous filmmaker?

  1. Steven Spielberg
  2. Ridley Scott
  3. Sidney Pollack
  4. James L. Brooks

Apple CEO Tim Cook, in an op-ed published by TIME last week, advocated for greater consumer privacy online. What idea did he propose?

  1. Independent blue ribbon panel to study consumer privacy
  2. Federal ban on all data collection, retention and resale by private companies
  3. New app
  4. Requirement for a clearinghouse of data brokers, to be regulated by the Federal Trade Commission, allowing consumers to delete their data