Republicans say party can’t afford to cut ties to Trump

A sharpening debate has emerged in Republican circles over whether and when to cut ties with Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpForget the spin: Five unrefuted Mueller Report revelations Lara Trump: Merkel admitting migrants 'one of the worst things that ever happened to Germany' Financial satisfaction hits record high: survey MORE, who has shaken up his campaign team as his poll numbers have dropped.

While some in the GOP have called for Republicans to cut Trump loose sooner rather than later to avoid lasting damage, strategists concerned about control of Congress in 2017 say that would be disastrous.  

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The argument pits pundits such as Michael Gerson and David Books, against tacticians close to congressional leaders who have one priority: keeping the Senate and House in Republican hands after November.

The Republicans close to congressional leaders argue their party can’t afford to completely cut ties to Trump if it wants to avoid a disaster this fall.

“The bandwagonning [against Trump] that a lot of Democrats are trying to goad Republicans into is one way of ensuring that very good [Republican] candidates have an even harder time getting across the finish line in November,” said one Senate Republican strategist. “A lot of Republican commentators and analysts fall in the same category.

“They want to make the argument we have to stand up against this guy on principle. The problem with that is if you do so, you end up taking out really good Republicans,” the source added.

Republicans have to defend 24 Senate seats this year while Democrats only need to protect 10. Democrats will capture the upper chamber if they pick up four seats and keep the White House. 

Gerson, a senior aide to President George W. Bush and columnist for The Washington Post, and Brooks, a conservative columnist for The New York Times, have loudly called on Republicans to distance themselves from Trump.   

Gerson warned on Monday that “Trump may cost the GOP a generation of voters.”

He urged party leaders such as Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanAppeals court rules House chaplain can reject secular prayers FEC filing: No individuals donated to indicted GOP rep this cycle The Hill's Morning Report - Waiting on Mueller: Answers come on Thursday MORE (Wis.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellElection agency limps into 2020 cycle The Hill's Morning Report - Will Joe Biden's unifying strategy work? Dems charge ahead on immigration MORE (Ky.) to consider that at some schools with large minority populations, chanting Trump is viewed as a racial taunt.

Earlier in the year, Gerson wrote that if Priebus endorsed Trump’s nomination, “it would turn the sins of Trump in to the sins of the GOP” and squander the party’s legacy in a “squalid and hopeless political effort.”

Brooks warned earlier this month that Republicans who refuse to disavow Trump “are being sucked down a nihilistic whirlpool.”

“If you’re not in revolt, you’re in cahoots. When this period and your name are mentioned, decades hence, your grandkids will look away in shame,” he wrote.

The two are hardly alone.

Other GOP pundits such as MSNBC host Joe Scarborough have questioned whether Republicans are damaging their party with Trump.

Former Minnesota Rep. Vin Weber, who served as a senior adviser to Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, told Bloomberg Politics earlier this month that he would prefer that Trump loses to Clinton.

He argued that Trump is “contrary to the spirit of Republicanism” and will hurt candidates down ballot.

Republican strategists on the ground in key states, however, say the handwringing over Trump is a Washington parlor game that ultimately could cost Senate candidates.

“Those guys live in a world where all they do is talk about Trump, the impact of Trump and the future of the party. Voters, vis a vis their own needs, aren’t thinking about the future of the Republican Party,” said another GOP strategist.

“Candidates should disavow things they disagree with Trump on but they should focus on their own races. They should focus on their own voters more than the future of their party,” the source added.

Republicans in this camp say turning off the party from the presidential nominee will only depress GOP turnout in November. Mass Republican defections from Trump can mean the difference between him losing a key battleground by 3-4 points or by 8-9 points.

Strategists in both parties say vulnerable incumbents such as Sen. Rob PortmanRobert (Rob) Jones PortmanSherrod Brown asks Trump Fed pick why he referred to Cleveland, Cincinnati as 'armpits of America' Senate Republicans tested on Trump support after Mueller GOP senator wears shirt honoring Otto Warmbier at Korean DMZ MORE of Ohio and Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania can run up to 5 points ahead of Trump on Election Day, but making up a gap of 6-10 points is much harder.

There are signs that Trump is seeking to help his party by adopting a different tone.

He has stayed away from divisive remarks at campaign events and on Twitter this week, and he expressed regret in a Thursday night speech for remarks that had caused “personal pain.”

Trump also shook up his campaign by bringing in a Breitbart News executive as his campaign CEO on Wednesday. Campaign chairman Paul Manafort resigned on Friday.

The Wall Street Journal editorial page on Sunday pressed Republican leaders to drop Trump if his campaign does not show considerable improvement by Labor Day.

“If they can’t get Mr. Trump to change his act by Labor Day, the GOP will have no choice but to write off the nominee as hopeless and focus on salvaging the Senate and House and other down-ballot races,” the paper wrote.

But Chip Saltsman, a GOP strategist who advised former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s presidential campaign this year, said it’s odd by historical standards to view Labor Day as the drop-dead deadline to turn around Trump’s campaign. Traditionally, Labor Day is seen as the date when many people begin paying serious attention to presidential politics.

“Labor Day is the traditional starting line for some people and they’re talking about it as the finish line,” he said. “How many times have we seen polls move up and down dramatically?”

Saltsman said if Republicans disavow Trump, “it makes it tougher” for Senate candidates such as Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioDems plot aggressive post-Mueller moves, beginning with McGahn Senate Republicans tested on Trump support after Mueller Cuban negotiator says Trump's efforts to destabilize Cuba's government will fail MORE of Florida and Richard BurrRichard Mauze BurrGOP senator: 'No problem' with Mueller testifying Collins backs having Mueller testify Graham says he's 'not interested' in Mueller testifying MORE of North Carolina.

“The fight is between us and Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonForget the spin: Five unrefuted Mueller Report revelations Former senators launching effort to help Dems win rural votes Biden's announcement was a general election message, says political analyst MORE, not us and us,” he added. “Cannibalization is not a good political strategy.”