Partisan lines harden in Senate over immigration reform bill

Partisan lines are hardening over the Senate’s immigration reform bill, downgrading hopes a 70-plus majority of senators will back it in an up-or-down vote next week.

The bill seems likely to pass the Senate, particularly after a Congressional Budget Office score on Tuesday found it would reduce deficits by $700 billion over the next two decades.

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Yet hopes the bill could win 70 or 80 votes are fading along with the chances that a key amendment sponsored by Sen. John CornynJohn CornynLawmakers already planning more coronavirus stimulus after T package Cuban says he'd spank daughter if she was partying during coronavirus pandemic Twitter comes under fire over Chinese disinformation on coronavirus MORE (R-Texas) will be approved.

Senate Majority Leader Harry ReidHarry Mason ReidGOP embraces big stimulus after years of decrying it Five Latinas who could be Biden's running mate Winners and losers from Super Tuesday MORE (D-Nev.) on Tuesday said he opposes including any triggers in the bill that would have to be pulled before the path to citizenship is granted to millions of immigrants.

That likely dooms Cornyn’s measure, which could come up for a vote as early as Wednesday. It would make permanent legal residency for illegal immigrants contingent on reaching ambitious border-security benchmarks.

In another blow to the amendment on Tuesday, Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamTrump reviews Pelosi on morning TV: 'She wasn't bad' Encryption helps America work safely – and that goes for Congress, too Graham: Pelosi comment on Trump is 'most shameful, disgusting statement by any politician in modern history' MORE (S.C.), a Republican member of the Gang of Eight, said he would vote against it.

If Cornyn’s amendment isn’t added, he and a number of other Republicans are unlikely to support the bill.

“Absent passage of that sort of enforcement mechanism, I can’t support this bill, and there will be many Republicans who cannot and many others who believe that it’s just another hollow promise,” Cornyn said Tuesday.

Losing Cornyn’s vote will imperil the support of other Republican leaders. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellOvernight Health Care: White House projects grim death toll from coronavirus | Trump warns of 'painful' weeks ahead | US surpasses China in official virus deaths | CDC says 25 percent of cases never show symptoms 14 things to know for today about coronavirus Trump says he wouldn't have acted differently on coronavirus without impeachment MORE (Ky.) last week called Cornyn’s “the key amendment.”

Democrats have signaled in recent days that they’ll be satisfied if they don’t get a supermajority of more than 70 votes, a goal of Sen. Charles SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerMcConnell launches ad touting role in passing coronavirus relief Joe Biden can't lead the charge from his home in Delaware Texas man arrested for allegedly threatening Democrats over coronavirus bill MORE (N.Y.), who believes it would give House Republicans political cover to support comprehensive immigration reform.

Reid has told Schumer not to worry about the political calculus in the House.

“I have talked to my four Democrats [on] the Gang of Eight and I have told them, ‘Concentrate on the Senate. Don’t at this stage worry about what’s going to happen in the House,’ ” Reid told reporters Tuesday.

It will now be more difficult to reach the 70-vote mark, even though Graham predicted in an NBC interview Sunday that the Senate legislation will pass with “plus 70 votes.”

Democrats can count on about 10 Republicans to vote for the bill, but that gets them to 64 votes for final passage.

The Republicans considered most likely to vote yes are the four members of the Senate Gang of Eight —Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioPompeo: Countries must 'step up,' provide 'transparent' coronavirus information to save lives China did not count coronavirus positives if patient had no symptoms: report Trump seeks to sell public on his coronavirus response MORE (Fla.), John McCainJohn Sidney McCainBiden's pick for vice president doesn't matter much Juan Williams: Biden's promises on women are a big deal Ernst calls for public presidential campaign funds to go to masks, protective equipment MORE (Ariz.), Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeMcSally campaign to suspend TV ads, canvassing amid pandemic Coronavirus isn't the only reason Congress should spend less time in DC Trump Jr. says he inherited 'Tourette's of the thumbs' from his father MORE (Ariz.) and Graham — and Sens. Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiGOP senators urge Saudi Arabia to leave OPEC Schumer: Senate should 'explore' remote voting if coronavirus sparks lengthy break Turning the virus into a virtue — for the planet MORE (Alaska), Kelly AyotteKelly Ann AyotteLobbying World On the Trail: Senate GOP hopefuls tie themselves to Trump GOP fears Trump backlash in suburbs MORE (N.H.), Mark KirkMark Steven KirkOn the Trail: Senate GOP hopefuls tie themselves to Trump Biden campaign releases video to explain 'what really happened in Ukraine' Why Republicans are afraid to call a key witness in the impeachment inquiry MORE (Ill.), Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerOn The Trail: Democrats plan to hammer Trump on Social Security, Medicare Lobbying World Democrats spend big to put Senate in play MORE (Nev.) and Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsGOP presses for swift Ratcliffe confirmation to intel post Campaigns pivot toward health awareness as races sidelined by coronavirus Senate eyes quick exit after vote on coronavirus stimulus package MORE (Maine). 

Reid warned that any amendments that put obstacles in the pathway to citizenship would threaten Democratic support.

“I’m not in favor of a trigger,” he said. “If there needs [to be] more done in the eyes of some senators on border security, put those proposals forward.

“But we have to be really, really careful with triggers, because there are a lot of important things in this legislation,” he added. “The pathway to citizenship is really important.”

The Senate voted Tuesday, largely along party lines, to reject a trigger proposed by Sen. John ThuneJohn Randolph ThuneTrump's magical thinking won't stop the coronavirus pandemic Lawmakers brace for more coronavirus legislation after trillion bill The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Airbnb - Senate overcomes hurdles, passes massive coronavirus bill MORE (S.D.), the third-ranking member of the Republican leadership.

The Senate voted 39-54 to defeat Thune’s proposal to require the construction of 350 miles of new fence along the southern border before granting provisional legal status to immigrants.

Members of the Gang of Eight had been negotiating with Cornyn about changing his amendment. After Cornyn told Republican colleagues at a closed-door meeting last week that he was open to modifying it, some of them felt convinced he would ultimately vote for the bill, paving the way for it to pass with more than 70 votes.

However, no deal on the Cornyn amendment was in sight Tuesday afternoon.

“The one part that’s non-negotiable is the part that actually enforces the standard set out in the Gang of Eight bill,” Cornyn said.

The Senate bill sets the goals of 100 percent border-monitoring capabilities and a 90 percent apprehension rate of illegal entrants along the southern border but does not require them before granting permanent legal residency. Cornyn would make those goals mandatory.

Democratic members of the Gang say this demand is unacceptable.

Durbin has called the apprehension rate trigger “totally unacceptable.”

“What would not be acceptable to us is a sense that the pathway to citizenship is somehow contingent or not real,” said Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetCyber threats spike during coronavirus pandemic Democrats eye additional relief checks for coronavirus Hillicon Valley: Facebook launches portal for coronavirus information | EU sees spike in Russian misinformation on outbreak | Senate Dem bill would encourage mail-in voting | Lawmakers question safety of Google virus website MORE (Colo.), another Democratic member of the Gang.

The stalemate over a border-security trigger for the pathway to citizenship leaves it to other Republicans to negotiate a deal. Sens. Bob CorkerRobert (Bob) Phillips CorkerMcConnell, Romney vie for influence over Trump's trial RNC says ex-Trump ambassador nominee's efforts 'to link future contributions to an official action' were 'inappropriate' Lindsey Graham basks in the impeachment spotlight MORE (R-Tenn.) and John HoevenJohn Henry HoevenGOP senators urge Saudi Arabia to leave OPEC GOP divided on next steps for massive stimulus package Overnight Energy: Democratic lawmakers seek emissions reductions in airline bailout | House Dems warn Trump against oil industry bailout | GOP senators ask Saudis to stabilize oil market MORE (R-N.D.) are working on an amendment to strengthen border security, and so is Rubio.

Negotiators say they were working diligently but had nothing to report as of Tuesday afternoon.

“We’re working away. We’re working away,” McCain said. “Constant meetings, constant conversations.”

“I think we should have had something yesterday,” he said.