Arizona Senate race a virtual tie: poll

Arizona Senate race a virtual tie: poll
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GOP Rep. Martha McSally (Ariz.) is in a virtual tie with Democratic Rep. Krysten Sinema (Ariz.) ahead of Tuesday's election in Arizona's Senate race, according to a new poll.

The ABC15/OH Predictive Insights poll published Sunday night found that McSally has the support of 49 percent of likely voters polled, while 48 percent backed Sinema. McSally's slight advantage is within the poll's margin of error of 4 percentage points.

McSally's lead is down from 7 points in the same poll last month.

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The new poll falls in line with other surveys that have shown Sinema and McSally in a close race ahead of the election. Sinema holds a lead of 1.2 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of recent polling in the race. 

The latest poll's results are based on surveys with 631 "qualified, likely voters" from Nov. 2-3. 

Mike Noble, the chief pollster of OH Predictive Insights, said in a statement to ABC15 in Phoenix that Democratic voters "are defying past historic early voting trends."

“The race has tightened and it’s fitting that the winner will be decided based on who can best turn out their voters on election day," Noble said.