Schumer’s headaches to multiply in next Congress

The 2020 presidential election is going to be a headache for Senate Democratic Leader Charles SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerGOP Green New Deal stunt is a great deal for Democrats National emergency declaration — a legal fight Trump is likely to win House Judiciary Dems seek answers over Trump's national emergency declaration MORE (N.Y.).

To have a chance of winning the Senate majority in 2020, Democrats will have to win over centrist voters in states such as Colorado, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina and Alabama.

The best way to do that for Schumer is to keep his caucus focused on health care and other practical middle-class issues.

But the half-dozen Senate Democrats vying for the party’s presidential nomination will have just as much — if not more — interest in hitting on hot-button topics that rev up the liberal base. 

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Otherwise, they risk getting overlooked in what is certain to be a crowded field where White House hopefuls will be fiercely competing for media attention.  

The 2020 race is also likely to produce attendance problems, a headache for a leader who will need to keep his caucus together and in Washington for close votes.

Schumer faces high hurdles to winning the Senate in 2020.

He’s likely to face a deficit of two or three seats with races in Florida and Arizona still being contested.

That will mean winning GOP seats in states that voted for President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump nominates Jeffrey Rosen to replace Rosenstein at DOJ McCabe says ‘it’s possible’ Trump is a Russian asset McCabe: Trump ‘undermining the role of law enforcement’ MORE such as Iowa, North Carolina and Georgia, while defeating talented GOP incumbents in Colorado and Maine. 

Democrats also will be defending Sen. Doug Jones’s seat in deep-red Alabama, a state Trump carried by 28 points in 2016.

Usually the best way to win in Senate battlegrounds is to nominate centrist candidates who focus on bread-and-butter issues.

Schumer highlighted that as a key political goal when asked what Democrats have to do to win the majority in 2020. 

“By focusing on middle-class issues that affect average voters such as health care, drug prices, things like that, I think we’ll expand our majority,” Schumer said Wednesday. 

Winning back red-states in the Senate isn’t impossible for Democrats.

This past week, Sens. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinDemocrats brush off GOP 'trolling' over Green New Deal Senate confirms Trump pick William Barr as new attorney general GOP wants to pit Ocasio-Cortez against Democrats in the Senate MORE (D-W.Va.) and Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterHow the border deal came together GOP braces for Trump's emergency declaration Border talks stall as another shutdown looms MORE (D-Mont.) won in pro-Trump states. Both emphasized the rising cost of health care, protecting people with pre-existing conditions and taking care of veterans.

Winning in 2020 could be different with Trump on the ballot, however.

In addition, the presidential race will highlight differences between the parties at the top of the ticket. If a Democratic senator is the party’s nominee, it could also be tougher for senators down-ballot to run on their own records.

Five Senate Democrats are believed to be exploring presidential bids, in addition to Sen. Bernie SandersBernard (Bernie) SandersSanders campaign reports raising M in less than a day The Memo: Bernie Sanders’s WH launch sharpens ‘socialist’ question Gillibrand uses Trump Jr. tweet to fundraise MORE (I-Vt.), who caucuses with Democrats. All are in the party’s liberal wing: Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenSanders campaign reports raising M in less than a day The Memo: Bernie Sanders’s WH launch sharpens ‘socialist’ question Gillibrand uses Trump Jr. tweet to fundraise MORE (D-Mass.), Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerSanders campaign reports raising M in less than a day Gillibrand uses Trump Jr. tweet to fundraise Trump: Bernie Sanders 'missed his time' for White House MORE (D-N.J.), Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisSanders campaign reports raising M in less than a day The Memo: Bernie Sanders’s WH launch sharpens ‘socialist’ question Gillibrand uses Trump Jr. tweet to fundraise MORE (D-Calif.), Sen. Kirsten GillibrandKirsten Elizabeth GillibrandSanders campaign reports raising M in less than a day Gillibrand uses Trump Jr. tweet to fundraise Meghan McCain: 'Don't underestimate' Bernie Sanders MORE (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Jeff MerkleyJeffrey (Jeff) Alan MerkleyGOP Green New Deal stunt is a great deal for Democrats The border deal: What made it in, what got left out Lawmakers introduce bill to fund government, prevent shutdown MORE (D-Ore.). 

They all back Medicare for All Act, a single-payer health-care plan sponsored by Sanders that Republicans say would drive up the deficit.

Two — Gillibrand and Warren — have called for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Booker played a leading role in opposing Supreme Court Justice Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughBudowsky: Roberts Court faces its own state of emergency The 10 Dems most likely to win the 2020 presidential nomination Five things to watch as Barr takes the reins of Justice, Mueller probe MORE and hasn’t ruled out the possibility of an effort to impeach him. 

New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof warned this past week that Democratic rhetoric hurt the party’s chances in Senate races this year.  

“Every time Democrats mentioned the word 'impeachment' or talked about abolishing ICE, Republicans benefited,” he wrote. 

 Kristof said Booker’s stand against Kavanaugh revved up liberals but probably hurt centrist candidates who lost reelection, such as Sens. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillMcCaskill: Lindsey Graham 'has lost his mind' Trey Gowdy joins Fox News as a contributor The Hill’s 12:30 Report: Trump AG pick Barr grilled at hearing | Judge rules against census citizenship question | McConnell blocks second House bill to reopen government MORE (D-Mo.) and Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyOvernight Energy: Trump taps ex-oil lobbyist Bernhardt to lead Interior | Bernhardt slams Obama officials for agency's ethics issues | Head of major green group steps down Trump picks ex-oil lobbyist David Bernhardt for Interior secretary EPA's Wheeler faces grilling over rule rollbacks MORE (D-Ind.). 

“Senator Cory Booker’s ‘Spartacus moment’ thrilled some Democrats but hurt the party,” Kristof wrote. 

“That’s a risk going forward: Democrats jockeying for the presidential nomination in 2020 will tug the party toward impeachment talk or a blizzard of subpoenas — in ways that may help Trump,” he wrote. 

Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University who did three fellowships with former Senate Majority Leader Harry ReidHarry Mason ReidSanders hires veteran progressive operative to manage 2020 bid Constitutional conservatives need to oppose the national emergency Klobuchar: 'I don't remember' conversation with Reid over alleged staff mistreatment MORE (D-Nev.), said there’s not much Schumer can do to rein in Sanders, Warren or other colleagues if they break from party message. 

“There’s not really that much he can do personally to rein in Elizabeth Warren, to rein in Kamala Harris. You can counsel them, you can point them in a direction you think they ought to go but if they want to go full out in a populist direction or progressive direction, there’s not a whole lot he can do about it,” he said. 

“If they chart their own way and they decide what they need to do is a Beto O’Rourke approach, Schumer can stand by and look disapprovingly about it but I don’t know that he can really stop them,” Baker added, referring to populist Texas Senate Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke.

He noted that Schumer, who thought Democrats should have focused on fixing the economy instead of passing the Affordable Care Act during former President Obama’s first year in office, has a pragmatic streak. 

“His instincts are more conservative,” he said. “He necessarily doesn’t want to be dragged way the heck over to the left.”

Jim Kessler, a former Schumer aide and senior vice president for policy at Third Way, a Democratic think tank, said he agrees with Kristof.

“I think Kristof is right, voters really wanted to hear a lot more about things that affect them,” he said. “They care about things like health care costs and jobs and opportunity.” 

He said when a bunch of senators are gearing up to run for the presidency, “it’s a challenge for whoever is leading that caucus.”

“It’ll be a challenge for Schumer with so many people running for office,” he added, predicting Schumer would ask his colleagues to wage their battles on the campaign trail and “not force the Senate’s hands” on votes and other issues. 

Schumer on Sunday argued that the Democratic Party will benefit from a competition of ideas during the primary.

“I think we have lots of strong candidates across the political spectrum. My basic philosophy right now is let a thousand flowers bloom. Let’s get a lot of people out there,” he told CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellDems think they're beating Trump in emergency declaration battle Sanders: 'Not crazy' about nixing the Senate filibuster McCabe: No one in 'Gang of Eight' objected to FBI probe into Trump MORE (R-Ky.), who went through a similar situation in 2015 and 2016 when Sens. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzO'Rourke mulling another Senate run as well as presidential bid Texas senator introduces bill to produce coin honoring Bushes Trump working on labels for 2020 Dems: report MORE (R-Texas), Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulOn unilateral executive action, Mitch McConnell was right — in 2014 Congress must step up to protect Medicare home health care Business, conservative groups slam Trump’s national emergency declaration MORE (R-Ky.) and Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamCongress closer to forcing Trump’s hand on Saudi support Democrats brush off GOP 'trolling' over Green New Deal Warren: Officials have duty ‘to invoke 25th amendment’ if they think Trump is unfit MORE (R-S.C.) ran for president, has suggested he’s happy to see his counterpart deal with the dilemma.

“It’s going to be fun to watch the Democratic presidential aspirants” compete, McConnell quipped Wednesday. 

Republican strategists say Schumer’s message tailored to moderate and swing voters will have to compete with his colleagues’ efforts to rev up the base. 

“It’s always a challenge for a Senate leader when you have multiple members of your conference running for president. For starters, you have attendance problems. Compounding the attendance problem is the fact that they’re in a race to appeal to the further reaches of the party by the definition of the campaign they’re in,” said Josh Holmes, a GOP strategist and McConnell’s former chief of staff. 

“Whatever message you’re trying to drive as a conference doesn’t exist,” he added. “His conference [members] in trying to compete with each other are going to be drowning out everything he says.” 

Democratic candidates in Senate primaries may also be tempted to run to the left with better-known White House hopefuls atop the tickets, he predicted.   

“The biggest challenge for Democrats is going to be in the nomination process for Senate candidates. You don’t have the presidential primary discussion in a well — that happens everywhere — and there are going to an awful lot of candidates echoing that message and other more electable candidates not willing to go along for the ride,” Holmes. 

“You could see the Democratic primary process really upended at the Senate level in 2020,” he said.