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What to watch: Five fights awaiting Trump, Congress

Congress is returning to Washington with several divisive fights looming over the 2019 agenda.

The first year of divided government under the Trump administration will set up a clash between Senate Republicans, who expanded their majority, and House Democrats ready to challenge the administration.

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The 2020 election will also cast an increasingly long shadow as President TrumpDonald TrumpRomney: 'Pretty sure' Trump would win 2024 GOP nomination if he ran for president Pence huddles with senior members of Republican Study Committee Trump says 'no doubt' Tiger Woods will be back after accident MORE gears up to run for reelection and a boatload of Democrats ready presidential campaigns.

Ending a partial government shutdown will be the first piece of business. Here’s what to watch for.

Government funding

Roughly 25 percent of the federal government has been closed since Dec. 22 amid a protracted fight over Trump’s demands for $5 billion in funding for a wall on the Mexican border.

The shutdown came after Trump, under fire from conservatives, refused to support a Senate-passed seven-week bill that provided no extra money for the border. House Republicans, instead, passed a seven-week stopgap bill that included $5.7 billion for the wall and border security.

House Democrats plan to pass a bill to fully reopen the government when they take power on Thursday. Their plan is to approve a spending bill for the Department of Homeland Security that would continue existing funding through Feb. 8. They would also pass a package of six other bills funding the remaining closed parts of the government through the end of the fiscal year.

The move would kick the fight back to the Senate and force Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellMcConnell backs Garland for attorney general Trump to attend private RNC donor retreat The Patriot Party already exists — it's the Democrats MORE (R-Ky.) to decide whether to move a bill without Trump’s support. Another question? Whether Trump would sign such a deal.

Behind the scenes, there has been talk about a deal in which Trump would lower his demands to roughly $2.5 billion. That would be in exchange for Democrats, who previously rejected a two-year deal that would have given Trump $2.5 billion in 2019, backing down from their hardline of $1.3 billion for fencing.

Such a deal would hinge on wording that would allow both sides to save face, meaning funding would need to go to fencing or other security measures falling short of a wall. They would also need to iron out an agreement on what restrictions to include on the funding, with the White House pushing for wide leeway on how they can use it.

Nominations

Trump’s Cabinet reshuffling will set up several fights in the Senate as lawmakers work to confirm his picks.

Defense Secretary James MattisJames Norman MattisThe GOP senators likely to vote for Trump's conviction Mission near impossible: Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon Overnight Defense: Biden administration pausing UAE, Saudi arms sales | Pentagon making climate change national security priority | VA secretary nominee sails through hearing MORE’s resignation, and Trump’s decision to force him out early, rankled Senate Republicans and set a high bar for his successor. Lawmakers viewed the retired general as a stabilizing influence who aligned more closely with their foreign policy views than the president.

Sen. Ron JohnsonRonald (Ron) Harold JohnsonTop cops deflect blame over Capitol attack NRSC chair Scott calls for party unity: 'The Republican Civil War is now cancelled' GOP senator raises uncorroborated claims about 'provocateurs,' 'fake Trump supporters' at Capitol riot hearing MORE (R-Wis.), who says he wants a “Mattis clone,” predicted the confirmation battle for Mattis’s successor “ought to be pretty interesting” and that “hard questions” will be asked by both Democrats and Republicans.

Sen. Pat ToomeyPatrick (Pat) Joseph ToomeyPhilly GOP commissioner on censures: 'I would suggest they censure Republican elected officials who are lying' Toomey censured by several Pennsylvania county GOP committees over impeachment vote Toomey on Trump vote: 'His betrayal of the Constitution' required conviction MORE (R-Pa.) told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that some of Trump’s views are “very, very distinct” from most Republicans and that he wanted the next Defense secretary to share “a more traditional view about America’s role in the world.”

Mattis’s resignation came as Trump is already facing several nomination fights.

William Barr, the president’s nominee to be the next attorney general, is under fire for his criticism of special counsel Robert MuellerRobert (Bob) MuellerWhy a special counsel is guaranteed if Biden chooses Yates, Cuomo or Jones as AG Barr taps attorney investigating Russia probe origins as special counsel CNN's Toobin warns McCabe is in 'perilous condition' with emboldened Trump MORE’s probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election. The Wall Street Journal reported that Barr, a former attorney general during the George H.W. Bush administration, wrote in an unsolicited memo that the probe is based on a “fatally misconceived” theory and would do “lasting damage” to the presidency.

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Senate Minority Leader Charles SchumerChuck SchumerCongress holds candlelight vigil for American lives lost to COVID-19 The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - Lawmakers investigate Jan. 6 security failures Senate confirms Thomas-Greenfield as UN ambassador MORE (D-N.Y.) has called on Trump to drop Barr. Several Republicans, including Sens. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsMicrosoft, FireEye push for breach reporting rules after SolarWinds hack On The Money: Schumer urges Democrats to stick together on .9T bill | Collins rules out GOP support for Biden relief plan | Powell fights inflation fears Schumer urges Democrats to stick together on .9T bill MORE (R-Maine) and Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulSanders votes against Biden USDA nominee Vilsack Senate confirms Vilsack as Agriculture secretary Hillicon Valley: Biden to take 'executive action' to address SolarWinds breach | Facebook and Google respond to Australian proposed law | DOJ charges North Korean hackers with stealing .3 billion in cryptocurrency MORE (R-Ky.), have also signaled they want assurances on Mueller or expressed unrelated reservations about Barr.

Senators will also need to tackle Heather Nauert’s nomination to be ambassador to the United Nations, handle a replacement for Interior Secretary Ryan ZinkeRyan Keith ZinkeOvernight Energy: Interior finalizes plan to open 80 percent of Alaska petroleum reserve to drilling | Justice Department lawyers acknowledge presidential transition in court filing | Trump admin pushes for permits for men who inspired Bundy standoff Trump administration pushes for grazing permits for men who inspired Bundy standoff Interior secretary tests positive for COVID-19 after two days of meetings with officials: report MORE and confirm Andrew Wheeler as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency.

Debt ceiling

Congress will face another perennial fiscal headache later this year: raising the debt ceiling.

The debt ceiling was suspended until March, and the Treasury Department’s use of “extraordinary measures” means the real deadline for action is probably mid-summer, say budget experts.

Raising the debt ceiling was a point of contention between GOP leadership and conservatives, with rank-and-file members wanting to use the vote to force through spending and entitlement cuts or changes to the congressional budget process.

Trump threw Republicans for a loop when he opened the door to nixing the debt ceiling in a meeting last year, arguing “there are a lot of good reasons” to get rid of it.

Democrats coming into power could further shift the dynamics. The House Freedom Caucus, which tried to weaponize the issue, will be in the minority. House Minority Leader Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiFive big takeaways on the Capitol security hearings Curator estimates Capitol art damage from mob totals K Democrats want businesses to help get LGBT bill across finish line MORE (D-Calif.), likely the next Speaker, previously said House Democrats would back a “clean” hike.

Rep. John YarmuthJohn Allen YarmuthDemocrats in standoff over minimum wage On The Money: Neera Tanden's nomination in peril after three GOP noes | Trump rages after SCOTUS rules on financial records House panel advances Biden's .9T COVID-19 aid bill MORE (D-Ky.), the incoming Budget Committee chairman, also has a proposal to de-escalate the fight by reinstating the “Gephardt rule,” which deemed the debt ceiling raised when Congress passed a budget.

NAFTA

Trump needs Congress to pass implementing legislation for his new trade deal with Mexico and Canada, which is meant to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

But the trade agreement is already sparking fierce debate, and alarm bells, among members raising questions about if it could get through Congress in its current form.

Though Congress previously agreed to fast-track any trade deals, House Democrats could easily nix the abbreviated floor process. In 2008, Democrats, led by Pelosi, voted to change the timeline required for Congress to take up trade agreements, effectively killing a Bush administration deal with Colombia.  

Pelosi has repeatedly indicated that she views Trump’s trade agreement with Mexico and Canada as a “work in progress” and wants changes to bolster labor and environmental protections.

“While there are positive things in this proposed trade agreement, it is just a list without real enforcement of the labor and environmental protections. We are also still waiting for Mexico to pass its promised law on the wages and working conditions of Mexican workers competing with American workers,” Pelosi said after a meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Robert LighthizerBob LighthizerWhiskey, workers and friends caught in the trade dispute crossfire GOP senator warns quick vote on new NAFTA would be 'huge mistake' Pelosi casts doubt on USMCA deal in 2019 MORE in December.

Even in the Senate, Republicans are warning about the potential consequences of the deal and publicly saying Trump cannot pull out of NAFTA without their approval. Trump has threatened to do so in an effort to pressure Congress to approve his new agreement.

Foreign policy

Congress and Trump are expected to battle on multiple foreign policy fronts in 2019 as Republicans appear increasingly unnerved by the administration’s foreign policy decisions.

A battle over the U.S.-Saudi relationship is spilling over into the new year.

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) will reintroduce his resolution that directs Trump to remove any troops in or “affecting” Yemen within 30 days unless they are fighting al Qaeda. Senators are also expected to reintroduce legislation to require sanctions on anyone involved in Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi’s death.

Trump is also facing fights over his plans to remove troops from Syria and draw down the U.S. military in Afghanistan. The Syria decision, in particular, has rattled lawmakers, who worry it will empower Russia, the Assad government and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioSanders votes against Biden USDA nominee Vilsack Senate confirms Vilsack as Agriculture secretary DeSantis easily defeats Rubio, Scott in hypothetical presidential primary: poll MORE (R-Fla.) predicted there would be oversight hearings about the administration’s strategy. Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamProgressive support builds for expanding lower courts McConnell backs Garland for attorney general Senate GOP campaign chief talks strategy with Trump MORE (R-S.C.), who has publicly and privately urged Trump to reverse course, said after a White House meeting on Sunday that he felt reassured and that he believed the administration was “slowing things down” to evaluate the situation.

Graham told CNN that Trump hadn’t changed his mind about withdrawing troops but that there is a “pause” to “assess the effects of the conditions on the ground."