GOP senators worry Trump, COVID-19 could cost them their majority

Senate Republicans looking at polls showing GOP incumbents losing ground are concerned that President TrumpDonald John TrumpViolence erupts between counter-protestors, Trump supporters following DC rally Biden considering King for director of national intelligence: report Here are the 17 GOP women newly elected to the House this year MORE's handling of the pandemic has put their majority in danger.

The two biggest criticisms of Trump that GOP lawmakers express privately are that his administration took too long to deploy coronavirus tests and that the president’s statements and demeanor have been too cavalier or flippant.

The biggest headwind Republicans face this fall is the faltering national economy, which now has a 14.7 percent unemployment rate, according to a Friday report by the Labor Department.

While Republican senators acknowledge that Trump’s popular support is tough to poll, some are concerned about surveys showing his approval rating below that of all 50 governors and other world leaders.

Compounding their anxiety are recent polls showing Sen. Steve DainesSteven (Steve) David DainesOVERNIGHT ENERGY: Trump races clock on remaining environmental rollbacks | New Interior order undermines conservation bill Trump campaigned on, critics say | Trump administration to further advance lease sales at Arctic refuge: report New Interior order undermines conservation bill Trump campaigned on, critics say Trump administration submits list of conservation projects after the deadline MORE (R-Mont.), a once-safe incumbent, now trailing his Democratic opponent, Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockOVERNIGHT ENERGY: Down ballot races carry environmental implications | US officially exits Paris climate accord  GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte wins Montana governor's race Senate control in flux as counting goes forward in key states MORE, and Sen. Joni ErnstJoni Kay ErnstIncoming Iowa GOP lawmaker tests positive for coronavirus Sullivan wins reelection in Alaska, giving Republicans 50 seats in Senate McConnell reelected as Senate GOP leader MORE (R-Iowa), who was also seen as cruising to reelection, in a dead heat with Democrat Theresa Greenfield.

Incumbent GOP Sens. Cory GardnerCory GardnerOVERNIGHT ENERGY: Trump races clock on remaining environmental rollbacks | New Interior order undermines conservation bill Trump campaigned on, critics say | Trump administration to further advance lease sales at Arctic refuge: report New Interior order undermines conservation bill Trump campaigned on, critics say Trump administration submits list of conservation projects after the deadline MORE (Colo.) and Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyMark Kelly reflects on using McCain's old desk: 'He was a hero of mine' McSally concedes Arizona Senate race Five takeaways from the battle for the Senate MORE (Ariz.) are well behind in the polls, while Sens. Thom TillisThomas (Thom) Roland TillisRick Scott to quarantine after contact with person who tested positive for COVID-19 Tillis wins North Carolina Senate race Sullivan wins reelection in Alaska, giving Republicans 50 seats in Senate MORE (R-N.C.) and Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsWe need a (common) 'sense of the Senate' resolution on transition planning The Hill's Morning Report - Biden wins Arizona, confers with Dem leaders; Trump tweets Deadlock leaves no clear path for lame-duck coronavirus deal  MORE (R-Maine) are in toss-up races.

Democrats need to net three seats and the White House to win the Senate majority.

“There’s concern,” said one Republican lawmaker describing apprehension over Trump’s job performance over the past two months.

The lawmaker acknowledged that Trump is “hard to poll” and that he has defied pollsters' predictions he would lose to Democratic nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonHere are the 17 GOP women newly elected to the House this year Why the polls were wrong Obama hits Trump for refusing to concede, says there's 'no legal basis' for challenges MORE in 2016. But the Republican also pointed to recent data that shows “every governor and every world leader is way up the polls but Trump isn’t.”

A recent survey of 22,000 voters in all 50 states by Harvard, Northeastern and Rutgers universities found voters in every state are more likely to approve of their governor’s job performance than Trump’s or Congress’s.

That could be a problem for incumbents such as Daines and Gardner, who are running against a governor and former governor, respectively.

A Montana State University poll released Tuesday showed Bullock leading Daines by 7 points, while a Keating-Onsight-Melanson poll showed former Colorado Gov. John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperDemocrats frustrated, GOP jubilant in Senate fight Chamber-endorsed Dems struggle on election night OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Down ballot races carry environmental implications | US officially exits Paris climate accord  MORE (D) ahead of Gardner by nearly 20 points.

A new Hart Research Associates poll shows that former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenViolence erupts between counter-protestors, Trump supporters following DC rally Biden considering King for director of national intelligence: report Here are the 17 GOP women newly elected to the House this year MORE has a 9-point lead over Trump in six states where Republican senators face tough reelection fights.

The poll found Democratic challengers leading Republican incumbents in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina by an average margin of 46 percent to 41 percent.

A Senate Republican strategist said GOP candidates will have to play offense by making November’s elections more of a choice between Republican and Democratic ideologies than a referendum on Trump’s performance.

“Republicans need the presidential campaign to shift from what is currently a referendum on President Trump to what will certainly become a choice between Joe Biden and President Trump,” the aide said. “When the presidential race becomes a choice, then the faithful on both parties’ sides will go back to their own corners and each state will be decided based on its own fundamentals.”

GOP senators are taking solace in the fact that four years ago a significant number of Senate candidates ran ahead of Trump.

For example, Sen. Ron JohnsonRonald (Ron) Harold JohnsonGOP senators say Warren nomination would divide Republicans Deadlock leaves no clear path for lame-duck coronavirus deal  Senate GOP calls grow to give Biden access to intelligence briefings MORE (R-Wis.), who was given up for lost at one point in the 2016 cycle, wound up winning 50.2 percent of the vote in Wisconsin, 3 points ahead of Trump, who barely carried the state with 47.2 percent.

Several Senate Republicans, including Senate Health Committee Chairman Lamar AlexanderAndrew (Lamar) Lamar AlexanderMitch McConnell might not endanger the planet Republican Bill Hagerty wins Tennessee Senate race The spectre of pension failures haunts this election MORE (Tenn.), Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.) and Sen. Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt RomneyWe need a (common) 'sense of the Senate' resolution on transition planning The Hill's Morning Report - Biden wins Arizona, confers with Dem leaders; Trump tweets Biden has spoken with some GOP senators, chief of staff says MORE (Utah), have publicly criticized the slow deployment of coronavirus tests. But they have also been careful to refrain from laying the blame at Trump’s feet or criticizing him personally.

Alexander told CNN’s Dana BashDana BashCNN's Dana Bash: Trump loss in Arizona would be 'John McCain's last laugh' Trump plays video of Biden, Harris talking about fracking at Pennsylvania rally CNN's John King: Barrett 'would be getting 70 votes or more' in Senate if nominated by another GOP president MORE on Thursday, “We’re not as prepared as we should have been.”

A second Republican senator who spoke to The Hill said the views within the Senate GOP conference of Trump’s handling of the crisis largely track how lawmakers viewed him before the pandemic.

“Members of Congress who approved of his other actions approve of his response, but not others,” the lawmaker said.

Those senators who had a positive view of him before the pandemic tend to view his performance over the past two months more favorably, while those who were skeptical or privately critical of his leadership are more so today, the source said.

Even Trump’s critics are careful not to take direct shots at him.

“We got off slow in testing, there’s no question about that,” Romney told a group of Georgetown students last week during a group chat.

Romney said he was not “blaming this administration” but described the pandemic as “a black elephant” — in other words, an enormous problem “we should have seen coming.”

“Were it up to me, I would have a far more centralized coordination effort in terms of manufacturing the devices, the reagents, the swabs, the tests ... and then getting them to the places that need it most,” he said.

GOP senators disliked Trump’s performance during press conferences of the White House coronavirus task force. They said Trump became overexposed by participating on a daily basis and made several damaging gaffes.

His most prominent stumble occurred in late April when he suggested an “injection inside” the human body such as bleach could wipe out coronavirus infections.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellRepublicans seek to batter Warnock ahead of Georgia runoff Haspel not in attendance at latest Trump intelligence briefing: reports Overnight Defense: Another Defense official resigns | Pentagon chief says military 'remains strong' despite purge | Top contender for Biden DOD secretary would be historic pick MORE (R-Ky.) told conservative talk show host Guy Benson a few days later: “Certainly, what Americans are most interested in is advice from health professionals about how to conduct their daily lives safely.”

He suggested the president play less of a role.

“To the extent that the White House decides to recraft those briefings to reflect that goal [it’s] probably a good idea,” he said.

Trump has since abandoned the daily press briefings by the task force.

But he then alarmed GOP senators when it was revealed the White House was thinking of disbanding the task force.

“I hope the task force doesn’t wind down. I think they serve an important purpose. I think the guidance coming out of that is good and if they need to have briefings, they should,” said Senate Republican Whip John ThuneJohn Randolph ThuneWe need a (common) 'sense of the Senate' resolution on transition planning Senate Republicans urge Trump to go all-in on Georgia McConnell reelected as Senate GOP leader MORE (S.D.). “I think the daily briefings probably were getting to be a little bit overkill.”

Trump quickly reversed his decision to shutter the task force, announcing it would instead operate “indefinitely.”

Sen. Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiObama 'troubled' by GOP attempts to cast doubt on election results: 'That's a dangerous path' On The Money: Biden, Democratic leaders push for lame-duck coronavirus deal | Business groups shudder at Sanders as Labor secretary | Congress could pass retirement bill as soon as this year Controversial Trump nominee Judy Shelton to pass Senate next week MORE (R-Alaska), another prominent moderate who has criticized Trump at times, said that she wants to focus more on getting the economy back on track than looking back at past mistakes.

“Everyone wants to be critical. I just want to figure out how we can figure out the concerns out there, the concerns of every American out here. I don’t find it constructive to be critical,” she said when asked about Trump’s handling of the pandemic.

“I could find things to criticize if I wanted to. What I’m trying to do is find all the reasons to be supportive,” she added. “I will tell you I have had more engagement with administration folks and their teams in the past six weeks than I’ve had in six years.”