Cook Political Report moves Senate races in Texas, Georgia, Alaska toward Democrats

The Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted Senate races in Georgia, Texas and Alaska, all with Republican incumbents, toward Democrats.


Cook changed its rating for Alaska’s Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Sen. Dan SullivanDaniel Scott SullivanSenate confirms Biden pick for No. 2 role at Interior Concerns grow over China's Taiwan plans China conducts amphibious landing drill near Taiwan after senators' visit MORE (R-Alaska) is seeking reelection against Al Gross, an independent candidate backed by the state Democratic Party. Sullivan led by 4 points in the most recent survey, conducted Sept. 25-Oct. 4 by Alaska Survey Research, but the state has one of the least-polled Senate races.

In Texas, Cook also shifted the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” There, Sen. John CornynJohn CornynBiden officials pledge to confront cybersecurity challenges head-on Eight Republicans join Democrats to confirm head of DOJ environmental division Federal officials abroad are unprotected — in a world of increasing volatility MORE (R) faces Air Force veteran and former congressional candidate M.J. Hegar. Cornyn leads the race by an average of 7.6 points, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average.

Cook also shifted Georgia’s Senate special election from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.” Sen. Kelly LoefflerKelly LoefflerSchumer, Tim Scott lead as Senate fundraising pace heats up Trump says Herschel Walker will enter Georgia Senate race WNBA announces zero COVID-19 positive tests, 99 percent fully vaccinated MORE (R) is defending her seat in a race that includes Rep. Doug CollinsDouglas (Doug) Allen CollinsLoeffler meets with McConnell amid speculation of another Senate run Georgia agriculture commissioner launches Senate campaign against Warnock Poll shows tight GOP primary for Georgia governor MORE (R-Ga.) and Democratic candidates Raphael Warnock and Matt Lieberman. If no one reaches more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two will face a runoff on Jan. 5.

The Democratic vote in the election has largely consolidated around Warnock, a Baptist pastor who currently leads the field by 6.2 points in the RCP average of the race. Lieberman, who trails the other three candidates in most polling, has faced calls to drop out, but these have largely subsided since Warnock took the lead.

Georgia will also hold a standard Senate election for its other seat between incumbent Sen. David Perdue (R) and Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff.

Last week, the nonpartisan handicapper shifted the South Carolina Senate race from “lean Republican” in favor of incumbent Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamEight Republicans join Democrats to confirm head of DOJ environmental division GOP sees debt ceiling as its leverage against Biden DACA court ruling puts weight of immigration reform on Democrats MORE (R) to a “toss-up,” giving Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison a boost.