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Tina Smith and Jason Lewis tied in Minnesota

Tina Smith and Jason Lewis tied in Minnesota
© Bonnie Cash

Sen. Tina SmithTina Flint SmithSenate majority battle snags Biden Cabinet hopefuls Smith wins reelection in Minnesota Democrats expand Senate map, putting GOP on defense MORE (D-Minn.) is in a statistical tie with GOP challenger Jason LewisJason LewisRep. Angie Craig defends Minnesota House seat in race clouded by legal confusion Smith wins reelection in Minnesota Klobuchar 'feeling good' about Democrats taking control of Senate MORE, according to a KSTP-SurveyUSA poll released Thursday.

The survey gives Smith a lead of a single point, 43 percent to 42 percent, well within the margin of error, with 12 percent of those polled undecided and 3 percent supporting a third-party candidate. The same survey showed Smith with a 7-point lead, 44 percent to 37 percent, earlier this month.

"This Senate race could go either way, and it's a bit of a surprise because Tina Smith has had a lot more resources than Jason Lewis," Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier told 5 Eyewitness News, a Minneapolis-area ABC affiliate.

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Schier said survey finds Smith losing ground among suburban voters and women, even as Democratic super PACs have highlighted sexist comments Lewis made in the past as a radio host.

"It's been a long time since Jason Lewis has been on the radio as a talk show host," Schier said. "He's been a member of the House. He's run for office for Congress twice and for some voters that's old news.”

The survey is a shift from other recent polls, which show Smith with leads of between 4 and 10 points. The RealClearPolitics average gives Smith a 5.8-point average lead, and the Cook Political Report lists the race as “likely Democratic.”

In the 2018 special election to replace former Sen. Al FrankenAlan (Al) Stuart FrankenThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by the UAE Embassy in Washington, DC - Trump, Biden clash over transition holdup, pandemic plans The Hill's Morning Report - Fearing defeat, Trump claims 'illegal' ballots The Hill's Morning Report - Biden inches closer to victory MORE (D-Minn.), Smith won with 53 percent of the vote.

KSTP-SurveyUSA pollsters surveyed 625 likely voters from Oct. 16-20. The poll has a 5-point credibility interval.