Polling expert Bill McInturff predicted on Sunday that whites without college educations will play a big part in deciding the presidential election this year.
McInturff was asked by "Meet the Press" host Chuck ToddCharles (Chuck) David ToddArkansas governor backs employer vaccine mandates Paid family leave is 'not a vacation,' Buttigieg says Grisham thinks Trump will run in 2024 and have no 'guardrails' MORE for his take on demographic splits observed in recent polls. The polling data Todd referred to showed Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenJan. 6 panel lays out criminal contempt case against Bannon Overnight Energy & Environment — Presented by the American Petroleum Institute — Democrats address reports that clean energy program will be axed Two House Democrats to retire ahead of challenging midterms MORE leading among college-educated whites as well as younger and older demographics, while middle-aged voters were almost evenly split between Trump and Biden.
When asked by Todd for his thoughts on Biden’s lead among senior voters, McInturff said, “They’re a volatile group, but I think the other thing to look at is who’s not voted. Among the roughly 3 out of 10 people who say they have not voted yet, they’re voting for Donald TrumpDonald TrumpTrump goes after Cassidy after saying he wouldn't support him for president in 2024 Jan. 6 panel lays out criminal contempt case against Bannon Hillicon Valley — Presented by Xerox — Agencies sound alarm over ransomware targeting agriculture groups MORE by almost 30 points.”
Early voting turnout has been massive this year, with over the half the total amount of voters who turned out 2016 already casting their ballots before Election Day.
“Look at the states with huge number of white non-college who’ve not yet voted: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. This election is gonna come down to those states again,” said McInturff.
McInturff noted that a Republican led-effort to increase voter turnout among white non-college educated individuals and those in rural areas could change the composition of the electorate. He went on to predict that the election outcomes in those four states would be very close.