Is Paul Ryan the latest sign of crumbling Republican Party?

Is Paul Ryan the latest sign of crumbling Republican Party?
© Greg Nash

History, geography and demography are the go-to guideposts as we head towards the 2018 midterm elections. The magic number for control of the Speaker’s gavel is 218, and the House Democrats hold 193 seats. With Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanHill.TV's Saagar Enjeti rips Sanders for 'inability to actually fight with bad actors' in party Biden fires back at Sanders on Social Security Warren now also knocking Biden on Social Security MORE set to pack his bags come January, the Democratic electoral roadmap is clear: Build out from the suburbs.

For starters, there are the 23 districts that went for Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonSchiff pleads to Senate GOP: 'Right matters. And the truth matters.' Hill.TV's Saagar Enjeti defends Tulsi Gabbard's lawsuit against Hillary Clinton Trump to hold rally on eve of New Hampshire primary MORE but are represented by Republicans in Congress. The bulk of these seats are located in upscale suburbs, with an above average number of white voters holding a college degree or better. For the record, this demographic that has markedly soured on Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpSchiff pleads to Senate GOP: 'Right matters. And the truth matters.' Anita Hill to Iowa crowd: 'Statute of limitations' for Biden apology is 'up' Sen. Van Hollen releases documents from GAO investigation MORE and the GOP. According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, whites college graduates who are 60 and older now lean Democratic by 2 points on the generic ballot, after favoring Republicans by 10 points in the first quarter of 2016.

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The combination of a rattled president, a hyper-volatile stock market, and a Republican-led House notionally committed to cutting Medicare is a turnoff for upper class seniors and their grandchildren. To be clear, Medicare is a benefit earned after a lifetime of work. It is not welfare. Geographically, the GOP is at a disadvantage here, too. Seven of these seats are in California, and another five are scattered across Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York and Virginia, which are all blue states. Overall, at least 25 vulnerable Republican seats are located in those states alone.

Beyond that, those very same states were hard hit by the recent Republican-driven $10,000 cap on the federal tax deduction for state and local taxes, and voters there will want revenge. In California, the average state and local taxes deduction had exceeded $18,000. Indeed, among higher-income Californians that figure jumps to more than $64,000, and in New York the number is an astronomical $84,964.

Hell hath no fury like a deep-pocketed taxpayer fleeced. Just ask Rob Astorino, the once-popular Republican Westchester County executive, who was drummed out of office in 2017 for the president’s perceived sins. Already, a whole cluster of Republican incumbents won’t seek reelection, and five members from these hyper-competitive districts have already announced their retirement. Republican stalwarts like Darrell IssaDarrell Edward IssaDuncan Hunter to plead guilty to campaign finance violations Why the GOP march of mad hatters poses a threat to our Democracy Elijah Cummings, native son of Baltimore, gets emotional send-off from Democratic luminaries MORE, Ileana Ros Lehtinen and Ed RoyceEdward (Ed) Randall RoyceThe most expensive congressional races of the last decade Mystery surrounds elusive sanctions on Russia Hillicon Valley: Lawmakers struggle to understand Facebook's Libra project | EU hits Amazon with antitrust probe | New cybersecurity concerns over census | Robocall, election security bills head to House floor | Privacy questions over FaceApp MORE are bidding their colleagues adieu. As Congressman Thomas MassieThomas Harold Massie2 Democrats say they voted against war powers resolution 'because it merely restated existing law' The Hill's 12:30 Report: Pelosi plans to send impeachment articles next week NY Times's Haberman: Trump 'surprised' Iranian strike wasn't 'more of a unifying event' MORE of Kentucky said after Speaker Ryan stepped down, “We’ve already got twice as many retirements in our party as the Democrats.”

The next set of districts to be targeted by the Democratic are those red pockets located in blue states that went for Trump, but look way too shaky for GOP comfort. On that score, think of the seats held by New Jersey’s Rodney FrelinghuysenRodney Procter FrelinghuysenThe 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority Top House GOP appropriations staffer moves to lobbying shop Individuals with significant disabilities need hope and action MORE and Frank LoBiondoFrank Alo LoBiondo Democratic challenger on Van Drew's party switch: 'He betrayed our community' Trump announces Van Drew will become a Republican in Oval Office meeting Van Drew, set to switch parties, will vote as a Democrat on impeachment MORE, and Pennsylvania’s Charles Dent, all of whom are quitting. Frelinghuysen, the outgoing chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, saw his district go for Trump by a meager 0.9 points. In Dent’s and LoBiondo’s districts, Trump’s margins were under 8 points and 5 points, respectively.

While Clinton won’t be on the ballot in November, Trump and his antics most certainly will. As Conor Lamb’s special election victory in western Pennsylvania demonstrated, Republicans have every reason to worry, even if their state and district went for Trump, and even if the district contains a significant, but not overwhelming, rural vote. Districts that are home to both rural and suburban blocs are also on the Democratic Party’s radar, especially as a trade war with China brews.

Although rural America is now the GOP’s electoral backbone, the Lamb win indicates that nothing and no one should be taken for granted. As Ron Brownstein has observed, the Democrats are now targeting “districts that mix a substantial rural population (around 15 percent to 40 percent of the district) with larger population centers, particularly white-collar suburbs.” Rural-tinged districts in Kentucky, Iowa, Illinois, California and Washington appear to be likely battlegrounds in the fall.

The fact the Democrats are highly competitive at a time when unemployment stands at 4.1 percent speaks volumes about the “in” party and the incumbent president. Although the midterms are more than six months away, the die appears to have been cast, with the remaining questions being whether Ryan’s departure is a harbinger of more Republican retirements to come, and whether or not the GOP will fall victim to a Democratic wave. Make no mistake, the two are highly related.

Lloyd Green was the opposition research counsel to the George H.W. Bush campaign in 1988 and later served in the U.S. Department of Justice.