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Quinnipiac poll shows what’s really on ballot in 2018 midterms for Dems — impeachment

Quinnipiac poll shows what’s really on ballot in 2018 midterms for Dems — impeachment
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A new Quinnipiac poll shows that if Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections, more than 70 percent of their supporters want to begin impeachment proceedings against President Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpPolice say man dangling off Trump Tower Chicago demanding to speak with Trump Fauci says he was 'absolutely not' surprised Trump got coronavirus after Rose Garden event Biden: Trump 'continues to lie to us' about coronavirus MORE.

The poll outlines precisely what is at stake in the midterm contests and it verifies what concerned GOP strategists have been saying for months: 2018 is a referendum on impeachment.

Although the overall percentage of American voters who favor impeachment has actually declined seven percent since January, the survey underscores the left’s intensity — some might even say obsession — with the subject of impeachment.

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Because impeachment proceedings must originate in the House chamber, the importance of getting out the base for congressional races this November just became all the more important.

 

There are some silver linings for the GOP.

Although the new poll shows an overwhelming majority of Democrats want Trump impeached, it also shows that the majority of all voters do not believe Trump should be impeached simply if he fires Special Counsel Robert MuellerRobert (Bob) MuellerCNN's Toobin warns McCabe is in 'perilous condition' with emboldened Trump CNN anchor rips Trump over Stone while evoking Clinton-Lynch tarmac meeting The Hill's 12:30 Report: New Hampshire fallout MORE. In fact, that figure is trending in Trump’s favor and has moved five points in favor of the president since February.

Perhaps even more interesting is that while 59 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats don’t believe the president should fire Mueller, a majority of all American voters — 55 percent — would actually oppose a bill that would prevent him from doing so.

According to the poll, the majority of voters believe Mueller is fair, but even that number is down nearly ten points since just last November. This trend in Trump’s favor comes as the president has become more vocal about questioning the Russia investigation and the appearance of political bias within the FBI, the deep state and the special counsel’s office.

Despite the intensity on the left, Trump’s base continues to stick with him.

A whopping 82 percent of Republican voters think the Russia investigation is a “political witch hunt,” and a majority (51 percent) believe the mainstream media has become the “enemy of the people” rather than an “important part of democracy.” A stunning 81 percent of Republican voters trust the president more than the news media to “tell them the truth about important issues.”

As for former FBI director James ComeyJames Brien ComeyEx-deputy attorney general says Justice Dept. 'will ignore' Trump's threats against political rivals DOJ weakens policy on investigating elections: report 'Comey Rule' exposes entertainment reporting's blinding partisanship MORE, the results were a mixed bag. While the majority of voters replied they trust Comey more than Trump on important issues, 41 percent of respondents reported having an “unfavorable” opinion of Comey which is up from just 33 percent last May.

Somewhat surprisingly, Quinnipiac also surveyed the public’s views on Environmental Protection Agency administrator Scott PruittEdward (Scott) Scott PruittCrystal clean water? Not if Trump can help it OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Barrett says climate change is a 'contentious matter of public debate' | Shuffle of EPA's science advisers elevates those with industry tries | Conservation groups to sue Trump administration, seeking giraffe protections Shuffle of EPA's science advisers elevates those with industry tries MORE who has been under fire for admittedly extravagant travel and potential mismanagement of resources. Also somewhat surprisingly, only 51 percent of Republican voters support the way Pruitt has managed the agency, while 52 percent of total voters disapproved. It remains to be seen whether that public opinion will have any impact on the only opinion that matters: Trump’s.

There are potential problems with the poll, however.

The polling organization states only that it surveyed “voters” with no mention of the category of “likely voters” which the Gallup organization — known as the industry gold standard in polling — considers the most accurate predictor of actual election day behavior.

It is also important to point out that the Quinnipiac poll got the 2016 elections wrong, along with most mainstream pollsters. Just two months before the election, Quinnipiac predicted Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham Clinton Rally crowd chants 'lock him up' as Trump calls Biden family 'a criminal enterprise' Undecided voters in Arizona wary of Trump, crave stability Push to expand Supreme Court faces Democratic buzzsaw MORE would beat Donald Trump by “a landslide” and in late October 2016, they had Clinton beating Trump by seven points.

However, it generally affirms what both parties have expressed they need to do which is enthusiastically turn out their respective bases this fall.

As both sides offer up a smorgasbord of candidates over the next six months, it will become increasingly important to communicate to the party faithful there is really only one thing on the menu this fall: impeachment.