There is no blue wave in California

Democrats need to gain 23 seats to win the House in midterms. They have been touting the fact that there are 10 competitive seats up for grabs in California, seven of which were carried by Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonThree legal scholars say Trump should be impeached; one thinks otherwise Report: Barr attorney can't provide evidence Trump was set up by DOJ Jayapal pushes back on Gaetz's questioning of impeachment witness donations to Democrats MORE in 2016, and are currently held by Republicans. Of those, four are in the traditional Republican stronghold of Orange County, where demographic shifts purportedly favor Democrats. Making the opportunity more ripe, two of those four Orange County races are open seats with the retirement of Ed RoyceEdward (Ed) Randall RoyceMystery surrounds elusive sanctions on Russia Hillicon Valley: Lawmakers struggle to understand Facebook's Libra project | EU hits Amazon with antitrust probe | New cybersecurity concerns over census | Robocall, election security bills head to House floor | Privacy questions over FaceApp House panel advances bill to protect elections from foreign interference MORE and Darrell IssaDarrell Edward IssaDuncan Hunter to plead guilty to campaign finance violations Why the GOP march of mad hatters poses a threat to our Democracy Elijah Cummings, native son of Baltimore, gets emotional send-off from Democratic luminaries MORE, two powerful House committee chairmen.

This week’s wild jungle primary, where the top two vote getters move on to the general, was supposed to be about the huge fields of Democrats vying for a rising tide of disgusted voters ready to send President TrumpDonald John TrumpStates slashed 4,400 environmental agency jobs in past decade: study Biden hammers Trump over video of world leaders mocking him Iran building hidden arsenal of short-range ballistic missiles in Iraq: report MORE a rebuke. The only fear was that they might split the vote and be shut out of the runoff despite commanding powerful anti-Republican majorities.

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The fundraisers and pundits have been telling everyone, and donors in particular, that the path to the Democratic majority runs through California. By Election Day, they had raised and spent millions to try and capitalize on the opportunity. The media has been calling it a win for Democrats because they avoided being shut out of winnable races and will have a candidate in all 10 general elections in November.

That is a very shallow and self-serving conclusion to draw. The best predictor of the November results is to aggregate the Republican versus Democratic votes into a two-party contest. What the coverage has almost universally ignored is that there was no commanding blue wave of voters for the Democrats to unify and win in November. In fact, in nine of the 10 competitive races in California, the Democratic candidates were squabbling over decidedly inadequate pools of available voters, and the Republicans maintained their traditional majority advantages.

Here are the final results in those 10 races from Tuesday’s primary elections. In the 4th district, Republican Tom McClintockThomas (Tom) Milller McClintockJudiciary Republican asks impeachment witnesses if they voted for Trump Live coverage: Witnesses say Trump committed impeachable offenses This week: Impeachment inquiry moves to Judiciary Committee MORE won with 52 percent of the vote, and the GOP on the whole earned 59 percent. In the 10th district, Republican Jeff DenhamJeffrey (Jeff) John DenhamEx-Rep. Duffy to join lobbying firm BGR Former GOP Rep. Walters joins energy company TikTok faces lawmaker anger over China ties MORE won with 38 percent, and the GOP earned 52 percent. In the 21st district, Republican David ValadaoDavid Goncalves ValadaoCalifornia Republican ousted in 2018 announces rematch for House seat The 8 House Republicans who voted against Trump’s border wall The Hill's Morning Report — Presented by T-Mobile — The political currents that will drive the shutdown showdown MORE won the race against Democrat T.J. Cox with 64 percent of the vote. In the 22nd district, Republican Devin NunesDevin Gerald NunesConservative Dan Bongino launches alternative to the Drudge Report Poll: 46 percent of voters say Trump's Ukraine dealings constitute impeachable offense GOP member urges Graham to subpoena Schiff, Biden phone records MORE won with 58 percent, beating three Democrats and two minor party candidates with a combined 41 percent.

In the 25th district, Republican Steve Knight won with 53 percent, beating three Democrats with a combined 47 percent. In the 39th district, Republican Young Kim won with 22 percent beating a field of 16 candidates, and the GOP earned 54 percent. In the 45th district, Republican Mimi Walters won with 53 percent, beating three Democrats and a minor party candidate with a combined 47 percent. In the 48th district, Republican Dana RohrabacherDana Tyrone RohrabacherGeorge Papadopoulos launches campaign to run for Katie Hill's congressional seat The Hill's Morning Report - Trump, Biden go toe-to-toe in Iowa Ex-GOP lawmakers are face of marijuana blitz MORE won with 30 percent, beating a field of 15 candidates including a challenge from a popular former Orange County Republican Party chairman, and the GOP earned 53 percent.

In the 49th district, where Issa holds his seat, there was a toss-up, and Diane Harkey won 26 percent. beating a field of 15 candidates, and the GOP earned 48 percent, while four Democrats combined for 50 percent with the highest, Mike Levin, getting 17 percent. In the 50th district, Republican Duncan HunterDuncan Duane HunterThe Hill's Morning Report - Dem impeachment report highlights phone records Duncan Hunter pleads guilty after changing plea Overnight Defense: Trump heads to NATO meeting amid tensions | Impeachment inquiry enters critical next phase | China suspends US Navy port calls to Hong Kong MORE won with 49 percent, the GOP earned 64 percent, and the highest performing Democrat got 16 percent.

With the clarity that only election results can produce, only one district in California appears like a possible flip. Even that is far from certain. The much vaunted rising blue wave of voters assembling to sweep the Democrats to victory in November turned out to be a blue mirage. If the path to winning the next majority runs through these 10 districts in California, it looks like the Republicans will hold the House, and the Democrats will be wandering in the political desert for another cycle.

Dan Palmer is a Republican donor and conservative political strategist. He served as executive director of United We Stand, planned the potential transition of Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSanders meets with MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred Cruz knocks Chick-fil-A over past donation: It has 'lost its way' Overnight Energy: Relocated BLM staff face salary cuts | UN report calls for drastic action on climate change | California asks EPA to reconsider emissions rule MORE, and supported the campaigns of Kevin McCarthyKevin Owen McCarthyWhite House calls Democratic witness's mentioning of president's youngest son 'classless' Republicans disavow GOP candidate who said 'we should hang' Omar Nunes accuses Democrats of promoting 'conspiracy theories' MORE and Donald Trump. You can find him on Facebook @RealDanPalmer.