Democrats hold fading odds of winning Senate this November

Democrats hold fading odds of winning Senate this November
© Greg Nash

A few short weeks ago, the Democrats thought they had a chance to win Texas as part of a master plan to gain control the Senate. Today, however, that looks decidedly improbable at best. The Senate race in Texas, which had been competitive and even showed Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke ahead in one poll amid record fundraising, now has seen incumbent Republican Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzThe Hill's Morning Report — After contentious week, Trump heads for Japan Senate GOP votes to permanently ban earmarks Jim Carrey fires back at 'Joe McCarthy wanna-be' Cruz MORE extending his lead to close to 10 points.

Other Senate races that were once thought to be close, and possibly winnable by Democrats, have seen a similar progression in the last few weeks. Nevada has gone back and forth between Democrat Jackie Rosen and Republican Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerThis week: Barr back in hot seat over Mueller report Trump suggests Heller lost reelection bid because he was 'hostile' during 2016 presidential campaign Trump picks ex-oil lobbyist David Bernhardt for Interior secretary MORE, with the latest poll showing a slight lead by Heller after a period where Rosen had a narrow but consistent margin.

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In Arizona, the same pattern is observable. Polls have shown Democrat Kyrsten Sinema with a consistent single digit lead for the bulk of the last couple of months over Republican Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyOn The Money: Senate passes disaster aid bill after deal with Trump | Trump to offer B aid package for farmers | House votes to boost retirement savings | Study says new tariffs to double costs for consumers Senate passes disaster aid bill after deal with Trump Senate defense bill would make military sexual harassment standalone crime MORE, who faced a very difficult and divisive primary. Now, the most recent poll shows McSally up 6 points, in keeping with the trend we have seen in the southwest.

Moving back towards the east, Republican Josh Hawley, the attorney general of Missouri, is in a dead heat with Democrat Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillLobbying world Big Dem names show little interest in Senate Gillibrand, Grassley reintroduce campus sexual assault bill MORE, who probably ended up on the wrong side of the Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughMurkowski celebrates birthday with electric scooter ride Graham urges Trump not to abandon infrastructure talks with Democrats 2020 Dems break political taboos by endorsing litmus tests MORE confirmation for swing voters there. In Tennessee, the lead that Democrat Phil Bredesen, the former governor and Nashville mayor, enjoyed over Republican Marsha BlackburnMarsha BlackburnOn The Money: Senate passes disaster aid bill after deal with Trump | Trump to offer B aid package for farmers | House votes to boost retirement savings | Study says new tariffs to double costs for consumers Senate passes disaster aid bill after deal with Trump Hillicon Valley: Google delays cutting off Huawei | GOP senators split over breaking up big tech | Report finds DNC lagging behind RNC on cybersecurity MORE is gone.

Now moving further east to Florida, incumbent Democrat Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonRepublicans amp up attacks on Tlaib's Holocaust comments The muscle for digital payment Rubio says hackers penetrated Florida elections systems MORE is in what appears to be a statistical dead tie with Republican Governor Rick Scott. Much of where it ends, of course, will be determined by how Scott handles disaster relief in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael.

Once thought to be an entirely winnable seat for Democrats, North Dakota appears gone for the Democrats in part because of Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampOn The Money: Stocks sink on Trump tariff threat | GOP caught off guard by new trade turmoil | Federal deficit grew 38 percent this fiscal year | Banks avoid taking position in Trump, Dem subpoena fight Fight over Trump's new NAFTA hits key stretch Former senators launching effort to help Dems win rural votes MORE voting against the Supreme Court confirmation. Further, the only seat in each state where Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpNASA exec leading moon mission quits weeks after appointment The Hill's Morning Report — After contentious week, Trump heads for Japan Frustration boils over with Senate's 'legislative graveyard' MORE won is in Montana, where Democrat Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterThreat of impeachment takes oxygen out of 2019 agenda Overnight Defense: Trump officials say efforts to deter Iran are working | Trump taps new Air Force secretary | House panel passes defense bill that limits border wall funds GOP angst grows amid Trump trade war MORE has a comfortable advantage over Republican Matthew Rosendale.

Put another way, Democratic hopes of winning the Senate are literally evaporating each day, and the lead that they have in the House has gone from 31 seats to 26 seats, according to Real Clear Politics average.

My best guess today is that Democrats will lose a few seats in the Senate, win the House very narrowly, a much less auspicious prognostication than I and most close observers expected just two to three weeks ago.

Douglas E. Schoen (@DouglasESchoen) served as a pollster for President Clinton. A longtime political consultant, he is also a Fox News contributor and the author of 11 books, including “Putin’s Master Plan: To Destroy Europe, Divide NATO, and Restore Russian Power and Global Influence.”