Mellman: The triumph of partisanship

Mellman: The triumph of partisanship
© The Hill illustration

Two forces triumphed on Election Day — Democrats and partisanship.

Tuesday brought a broad and deep victory for Democrats, as well as a repudiation of President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump calls Sri Lankan prime minister following church bombings Ex-Trump lawyer: Mueller knew Trump had to call investigation a 'witch hunt' for 'political reasons' The biggest challenge from the Mueller Report depends on the vigilance of everyone MORE and his Republican Congress.

When all the votes are counted, Democrats will have picked up 35 or more House seats, gained a net of at least seven governorships, taken control of eight additional state legislative chambers and flipped more than 380 state legislative seats.

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Democratic success extended well below the surface. Some three-quarters of the nation's congressional districts shifted toward the Democrats.

The exit polls reveal that almost every demographic segment moved toward the Democrats, as compared to their House vote in 2016.

Women increased their support for Democrats by 5 points, but men moved to the Democrats by 4 points.

Nonwhites shifted toward Democrats by 2 points, whites by 6 points.

White college graduates boosted their support for Democrats by 9 points, but the Democratic vote jumped 6 points over 2016 among noncollege whites.

Suburbs moved to the Democrats by 4 points, equaling the movement in urban areas, while rural areas shifted an even greater 7 points.

Independents boosted their support for Democrats by 9 points.

"Alas," you respond, "but what about the Senate?"

In a year where the map imposed horrific burdens on Democrats, the party will likely lose a net of just one or two seats.

And while those wonderful defeated Democrats did worse than they had 6 years ago, they all substantially outperformed Donald Trump's showing in their states.

Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampPro-trade groups enlist another ex-Dem lawmaker to push for Trump's NAFTA replacement Pro-trade group targets 4 lawmakers in push for new NAFTA Biden office highlights support from women after second accuser comes forward MORE's (D-N.D.) margin was 25 points better than Trump's in North Dakota, while Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillBig Dem names show little interest in Senate Gillibrand, Grassley reintroduce campus sexual assault bill Endorsements? Biden can't count on a flood from the Senate MORE (D-Mo.) and Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellySome in GOP fear Buttigieg run for governor Paul Ryan joins University of Notre Dame faculty GOP senator issues stark warning to Republicans on health care MORE (D-Ind.) bested Trump's margin by 13 points in their states.

Herein lies the second great "victory" of 2018 — the triumph of partisanship.

The trend's been clearly visible for some years, but this cycle it came to fruition.

In the 1990 midterms, 23 percent of Republican voters cast ballots for the Democratic candidate while 21 percent of Democrats voted Republican.

In 2018, just 6 percent of GOPers and 4 percent of Democrats voted for the other party's candidate.
Those national House vote numbers can obscure the tide, however.

When Heitkamp won by a point six years ago, there was no exit poll, but Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt Romney10 factors making Russia election interference the most enduring scandal of the Obama era The Hill's Morning Report - Is impeachment back on the table? Giuliani: 'Nothing wrong' with campaign taking information from Russians MORE won the state by 19 points, so about that many Romney voters split their ticket to support Heitkamp. This year, just 6 percent of Republicans and 8 percent of Trump voters crossed the partisan line.

In Missouri, 15 percent of GOPers voted for McCaskill in 2012, but this year less than half as many did so, and the story was similar in Indiana.

What about Sens. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinOn The Money: Cain 'very committed' to Fed bid despite opposition | Pelosi warns no US-UK trade deal if Brexit harms Irish peace | Ivanka Trump says she turned down World Bank job Cain says he won't back down, wants to be nominated to Fed Pro-life Christians are demanding pollution protections MORE (D-W.Va.) and Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) Tester20 Dems demand no more money for ICE agents, Trump wall Overnight Energy: Bipartisan Senate group seeks more funding for carbon capture technology | Dems want documents on Interior pick's lobbying work | Officials push to produce more electric vehicle batteries in US Bipartisan senators want 'highest possible' funding for carbon capture technology MORE (D-Mont.)? They seemed to keep their heads above the red tide in their states.

GOP support for both shrunk in 2018.

Tester won because there are fewer Republicans and more independents in Montana this year than the last time he ran.

West Virginia presents a somewhat different story.

There was no 2012 exit poll in the state, but Manchin prevailed by a 25-point margin. This year, his margin was slashed to just 3 points.

As governor, and during eight years in the Senate, Manchin made clear the lengths he will go to assert his independence, famously shooting the Democratic cap-and-trade bill in his last campaign, then voting with Trump more often than any other Democrat in the Senate, including supporting Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughJuan Williams: Buttigieg already making history Dems plot next move in Trump tax-return battle Fight over census citizenship question hits Supreme Court MORE's accession to the Supreme Court.

And all this in a state where partisan identities (though not ideological proclivities) were evenly balanced on Election Day.

Partisanship has long been our most important political identity. Until recently, however, appealing personalities and good works could enable candidates to escape its gravitational pull.

That partisan gravity has now become Jupiter-like, 2.4 times what it is on earth, weighing down federal candidates, except in the rarest of circumstances or the most evenly balanced of states.

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of House members. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years and as President of the American Association of Political Consultants.