No, it's not a gamble for Dems to back Beto for president

No, it's not a gamble for Dems to back Beto for president
© Greg Nash

Beto O’Rourke should reach for the gold ring. He’ll never be hotter than he is now. He is only 46 years old, charismatic, articulate and is the darling of social media. He can clearly raise a ton of dough. O’Rourke raised more than $70 million for his Senate campaign in Texas against incumbent Republican Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzTrump moves forward with F-16 sale to Taiwan opposed by China The Hill's Campaign Report: Battle for Senate begins to take shape O'Rourke says he will not 'in any scenario' run for Senate MORE. A recent poll by Morning Consult showed O’Rourke trailing only former vice president Joe BidenJoe BidenPossible GOP challenger says Trump doesn't doesn't deserve reelection, but would vote for him over Democrat Joe Biden faces an uncertain path The Memo: Trump pushes back amid signs of economic slowdown MORE and Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersJoe Biden faces an uncertain path Bernie Sanders vows to go to 'war with white nationalism and racism' as president Biden: 'There's an awful lot of really good Republicans out there' MORE (I-Vt.) for the Democratic presidential nomination.

He is so cool that — like Lebron and Kanye — he has become one of America’s few single-name icons, known to pundits and voters alike simply as "Beto." In fact, Lebron wore a "Beto" cap when he played in Texas before Election Day.

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Insiders will tell him to wait his turn and get more experience. O'Rourke could try to hold his powder and run against the senior Texas Sen. John Cronyn in 2020 — the second most powerful Republican in the Senate.

But Trump’s successful presidential campaign in 2016 proved the old rules don’t apply anymore. Trump hadn’t been elected to anything before he won the presidency. O’Rourke has served for six years in Congress; Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaDick Cheney to attend fundraiser supporting Trump reelection: report Forget conventional wisdom — Bernie Sanders is electable 2020 Democrats fight to claim Obama's mantle on health care MORE had only four years of congressional experience before he became commander in chief.

O'Rourke should strike while the iron is hot. Shrinking violets do not become presidents. Risk takers like Jimmy Carter and Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonThe magic of majority rule in elections The return of Ken Starr Assault weapons ban picks up steam in Congress MORE become presidential nominees and presidents. You never know if your turn will ever come around again.

Ignoring millennials is a mistake

There’s a generational war happening in American politics, particularly within the Democratic Party. A battle rages between the boomers who run the party and the millennials who are the strongest Democratic partisans. The defeats of Joe CrowleyJoseph (Joe) CrowleyOcasio-Cortez chief of staff to leave her office Ocasio-Cortez about as well known as top Democrats: poll Boehner won't say whether he'd back Biden over Trump MORE in New York City and Mike Capuano in Boston by the victories of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley were more generational than they were ideological. Both incumbents had very good liberal voting records that were no match for younger and more energetic challengers.

The two Democratic frontrunners, Biden and Sanders, are in their seventies. O'Rourke’s youth and energy would be an effective contrast. This contrast is vital for the Democratic Party. I am convinced that one of the younger upstarts will come out of the dust to be a serious player and maybe even win the nomination. Why not O'Rourke?

The Democratic leadership in Congress is also advanced in age. In the absence of a young presidential nominee, the face the Democratic Party presents to American voters will be old and jaded.

The top three Democrats in the House, Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiObjections to Trump's new immigration rule wildly exaggerated Latest pro-democracy rally draws tens of thousands in Hong Kong Lewandowski on potential NH Senate run: If I run, 'I'm going to win' MORE, Steny HoyerSteny Hamilton HoyerLiberal Democrat eyes aid cuts to Israel after Omar, Tlaib denied entry Lawmakers blast Trump as Israel bars door to Tlaib and Omar Israel denies Omar and Tlaib entry after Trump tweet MORE and Jim ClyburnJames (Jim) Enos ClyburnIsrael denies Omar and Tlaib entry after Trump tweet Democrats race across country to woo activists Warren introduces bill to cancel student loan debt for millions MORE have seniority in more ways than one. Some of the opposition to Pelosi was a function of the concerns about the age of the House leadership.

Less visible but almost as pronounced is the age of the Senate Democratic leadership. The party’s leaders in the Senate are younger than the House leadership but Chuck SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerLewandowski on potential NH Senate run: If I run, 'I'm going to win' Appropriators warn White House against clawing back foreign aid Colorado candidates vying to take on Gardner warn Hickenlooper they won't back down MORE and company aren’t exactly spring chickens. The Democratic leader is 68 — as are the third and fourth ranking Senate Democrats, Patty MurrayPatricia (Patty) Lynn MurrayOvernight Health Care: Planned Parenthood to leave federal family planning program absent court action | Democrats demand Trump withdraw rule on transgender health | Cummings, Sanders investigate three drug companies for 'obstructing' probe Democrats demand Trump officials withdraw rule on transgender health The Hill's Morning Report - Progressives, centrists clash in lively Democratic debate MORE and Debbie StabenowDeborah (Debbie) Ann StabenowUSDA eases relocation timeline as researchers flee agency USDA office move may have broken law, watchdog says Senate Democrats see Warren, Sanders proposals as unfeasible MORE. The No. 2 Democrat in the Senate, Dick DurbinRichard (Dick) Joseph DurbinSenate Democrats push Trump to permanently shutter migrant detention facility House panel investigating decision to resume federal executions To combat domestic terrorism, Congress must equip law enforcement to fight rise in white supremacist attacks MORE, is 75.

The age of the Democratic presidential frontrunners and the party’s congressional leadership does not reward the overwhelming support millennials gave the Democratic Party in 2018. Millennials were more supportive of Democratic candidates than voters in any other age group. O'Rourke demonstrated his clout with young voters with 71 percent of the millennial vote in his race against Cruz.

Deep in the heart of Texas

The midterm results also suggest a rationale for a Texan presidential candidacy. Democrats have targeted Ohio along with Florida as the two key battleground states in a presidential race. But Texas may be a better bet than Ohio for Democrats. While Ohio drifts away from Democrats, the tide in Texas is close to breaking blue.

Targeting Texas instead of Ohio in a presidential race is risky for Democrats but the reward is a lot bigger. The Lone Star state has 38 electoral votes; the Buckeye state only has 18. A Democratic presidential win in Texas would be a disaster for Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpPossible GOP challenger says Trump doesn't doesn't deserve reelection, but would vote for him over Democrat O'Rourke: Trump driving global, U.S. economy into recession Manchin: Trump has 'golden opportunity' on gun reforms MORE or any other GOP presidential candidate.

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There is a larger Democratic base in Texas than there is in Ohio. There were more than twice as many midterm minority voters in Texas there were in Ohio. There were more millennial voters in the Lone Star state and just as many Democrats.

The Democratic gubernatorial victories in Wisconsin and Michigan indicate that the party can restore at least parts of the presidential blue wall in the industrial Midwest.

But the Buckeye state will be a tough nut for Democrats to crack. Another potential Democratic presidential candidate Sherrod BrownSherrod Campbell BrownThe Hill's Campaign Report: Battle for Senate begins to take shape Dayton Democrat launches challenge to longtime GOP rep Dayton mayor: Trump visit after shooting was 'difficult on the community' MORE won reelection but only with 53 percent of the vote. While Democrats took down GOP gubernatorial candidates in Wisconsin and in Michigan, the Democratic candidate for governor in Ohio, James Corday lost. 

Texas is on the rise for Democrats. Lone Star Democrats elected state representatives and county judges in counties that the party hasn’t won in a generation. Before 2018, the only blue counties were the areas on the Mexican border and in the large metro areas. Now blue spots are inching into the middle of the state.

An examination of the Texas Election Day exit poll should encourage Democrats for 2020. There were almost as many Democrats (34 percent) in the electorate as there were Republicans (38 percent). A quarter (26 percent) of the voters were Latino. Altogether, four in 10 (42 percent) of the voters were black or Hispanic. If minority turnout has been a few points higher as it would be in a presidential race, O'Rourke would have won. 

The battle against the boomers

O’Rourke checks two boxes for Democrats. His background is the best for a Democratic support from millennials and for a victory in Texas.

Democrats would also be better off with a young candidate like O'Rourke. Voters are in a nasty mood which means they will want change. O'Rourke is a change of pace for voters who are tired of the old political establishment.  

The desire for change is a function of a battle between an ascending generation, the millennials who want political power and a descending generation, the baby boomers who have the power and don't want to give it up.

Demography is destiny and the millennials will soon take control from the boomers. It would be much easier for Democrats to win the White House with a younger candidate who represents the future than it would be for an older nominee who stands for the past.

Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster and CEO of Bannon Communications Research. He is also a senior adviser to, and editor of, the blog at MyTiller.com, a social media network for politics.