What do millennials want?

What do millennials want?
© Greg Nash

Lost in the conversation of last year’s midterm election results was one important statistic: Younger generations (Gen X, Z and millennials) outvoted baby boomers and senior voters. This represents a critical and important shift in our electoral politics, but what does it mean for 2020?

In 2018, voters under 53 (the cut off for Generation X) cast 62.2 million votes, compared to 60.1 million votes cast by baby boomers and older generations. While every generation set records for turnout in a midterm election, millennials led the pack, roughly doubling participation numbers between 2014 and 2018.

What fueled this rapid level of engagement is worth exploring and cannot just be explained away as a reaction to the rise and eventual election of Donald Trump, although that is certainly part of the equation. 

For nearly 20 years, the Harvard Public Opinion Project has provided a critical glimpse into voting trends of young Americans and has published new data in advance of 2020. In addition to projecting even larger voter participation numbers for young voters, the IOP Youth Poll also found a building conflict between millennial voters and their parents’ generation. According to the poll, “by wide margins, younger Americans do not believe that the baby boomer generation, especially elected officials within that cohort, ‘care about people like them.’” Indeed, less than one in five millennials surveyed believe that baby boomer elected officials actually look out for their generation when it comes to making policy. 

In 2016, younger voters supported Secretary Clinton’s bid by 18 points, while voters over 65 backed then-candidate Trump by 8 points. Since taking office, President TrumpDonald John TrumpFauci says his meetings with Trump have 'dramatically decreased' McEnany criticizes DC mayor for not imposing earlier curfew amid protests Stopping Israel's annexation is a US national security interest MORE has struggled to gain any traction with younger Americans, with seven in ten (70 percent) of them holding an unfavorable view of the incumbent.

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While November 2020 may seem like an eternity from now, President Trump is unlikely to improve much in regard to his standing with younger voters, especially with his recent doubling down on climate change denial, threats of widespread undocumented immigrant deportations, and a promised veto of gun background check legislation — all critical issues to Americans 35 and younger.

Happening much sooner, of course, are the two back-to-back DNC-sponsored debates in which 20 of the top-tier Democratic candidates will be vying for precious screen time and the elusive breakout moment. What will set that stage apart from previous debates is the presence of three millennials themselves (Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegBiden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It's as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process Here's how Biden can win over the minority vote and the Rust Belt MORE is 37, Congresswoman Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardGabbard drops defamation lawsuit against Clinton It's as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process 125 lawmakers urge Trump administration to support National Guard troops amid pandemic MORE is 38 and Congressman Eric SwalwellEric Michael SwalwellGloves come off as Democrats fight for House seat in California Grenell says intelligence community working to declassify Flynn-Kislyak transcripts The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump visits a ventilator plant in a battleground state MORE is also 38) and five other candidates under the age of 50 (Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerThis week: Senate reconvenes as protests roil nation amid pandemic City leaders, Democratic lawmakers urge Trump to tamp down rhetoric as protests rage across US Sunday shows - George Floyd's death, protests bump COVID-19 from headlines MORE, Julian CastroJulian CastroCastro, Warren, Harris to speak at Texas Democratic virtual convention Julián Castro to become senior advisor for Voto Latino It's as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE, Beto O’Rourke, Tim RyanTimothy (Tim) RyanCongress must fill the leadership void Pelosi pushes to unite party on coronavirus bill despite grumbling from left Democrats rally behind monthly ,000 relief checks MORE, and Andrew YangAndrew YangAndrew Yang discusses his universal basic income pilot program Andrew Yang on the George Floyd protests in Minneapolis McConnell challenger on how Yang endorsement could help him MORE).

What each of these eight candidates and their older peers say on that stage will be watched, examined and analyzed closely by younger voters, many of whom will be participating for the first time in the primary or caucus process.

Speaking about the millennials specifically, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg recently declared, “sometimes certain things are a certain way until they’re not, and I think we have a generation now that is very skeptical of the way things have worked really for our entire lives.” Buttigieg has successfully navigated the early primary waters, achieving an enviable position squarely behind Biden, Sanders and Warren. Look for Gabbard and Swalwell to make similar arguments in how they frame generational appeals as we get closer to the early caucus and primary states.

Interestingly enough, however, most young Democratic voters aren’t supporting their peers just yet in the primary horserace.

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In a new GenForward poll, a University of Chicago effort tracking millennial political views, both Biden and Sanders lead the candidate pack with 17 points each. From the results, “the survey shows that across all racial groups, young voters favor former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenStopping Israel's annexation is a US national security interest Trump slams Biden staff for donating bail money to protesters At least 4,400 people arrested in connection with protests: report MORE and Vermont Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersJudd Gregg: Biden — a path to the presidency, or not Biden's 'allies' gearing up to sink his campaign Expanding tax credit for businesses retaining workers gains bipartisan support MORE. But the rankings of these two candidates is not consistent across all groups: While African Americans and Asian Americans rank Biden ahead of Sanders, Latino and white voters do the opposite.”

In the same survey of young voters, “someone else” takes 30 points, a strong indication that the youth vote is still up for grabs by most estimates.

Kevin Walling (@kpwalling) is a Democratic strategist, Vice President at HGCreative, co-founder of Celtic Strategies, and a regular guest on Fox News and Fox Business.