Where the presidential race stands: Biden's strange advantage

Where the presidential race stands: Biden's strange advantage
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After nearly a year of candidacy announcements, a series of early debates and the typical posturing and sniping, the Democratic field has come into focus. We are down to three top tier candidates. Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisIt's as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Coal company sues EPA over power plant pollution regulation | Automakers fight effort to freeze fuel efficiency standards | EPA watchdog may probe agency's response to California water issues EPA watchdog may probe agency's response to California water issues MORE (D-Calif.) is now running for vice president. Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden slams Trump in new ad: 'The death toll is still rising.' 'The president is playing golf' Warren to host high-dollar fundraiser for Biden COVID-19 makes Trump's work with black Americans that much harder MORE remains on top, if not very securely, and he also remains the strongest Donald Trump opponent. Not a single candidate, including President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden slams Trump in new ad: 'The death toll is still rising.' 'The president is playing golf' Brazil surpasses Russia with second-highest coronavirus case count in the world Trump slams Sessions: 'You had no courage & ruined many lives' MORE, has a net favorable rating with the American public.

Just like 2016, the choice for president will be who’s the least objectionable among an objectionable field.

The bottom line in all the polling is simple: Biden is on top of everyone. In some cases, not by a lot, but he is the clear frontrunner for both the Democratic nomination and for president in the general election. Since he announced on April 25th (and before) every single valid poll shows Biden running stronger than every other Democrat in a head-to-head matchup with Trump.

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Biden averages two points better than Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersWarren to host high-dollar fundraiser for Biden Julián Castro to become senior advisor for Voto Latino It's as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE (I-Vt.) and four points better than Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren to host high-dollar fundraiser for Biden It's as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process Hillicon Valley: Lawmakers demand answers on Chinese COVID hacks | Biden re-ups criticism of Amazon | House Dem bill seeks to limit microtargeting MORE (D-Mass.) against Trump. Biden leads Trump by an average of 8 points since the end of April (49-41), insignificantly different from his average August advantage (49-40). Sanders has an average advantage of 47-42 both since April and in August. Warren is further back at 44-43 but has improved to an average of 45-42 in August. Democratic voters have noticed. In an Economist poll, Democrats rate Biden as having the best chance to defeat Trump (66-13). Sanders (60-18) and Warren (58-16) trail.

Biden looks even better at the state level. He polls better than every Democrat against Trump in every state. Biden leads Trump in all the critical swing states (and possible swing states), except Florida (47-47 tie). In the Trump must-win states of Ohio and North Carolina, Biden leads by 8 points in the most recent polling. It should be noted that there are far fewer state polls than national polls, and these polls can be of uneven quality. But the Biden advantage is universal and durable.

But can that advantage last? Once you move beyond that ballot test, Biden’s numbers get a lot worse. In the Economist poll, his favorable/unfavorable numbers are below water at 39-47, about the same as Trump. His numbers among Independents are worse than Trump with a favorable rating of just 28 percent against 47 percent unfavorable. Trump rates 41-48. Both Sanders and Warren have better overall favorability ratings at 41-46 for Sanders and 39-39 for Warren. Among independents, Sanders and Warren are also under water but do better than Biden. Sanders is down 35-44, while Harris is behind 29-40. Even so, Biden had a narrow lead over the field.

The big problem for Biden and all the Democrats is that it is looking increasingly likely that independent voters will decide the race. Self-identified Democrats are unified against Trump, while Republican voters are reflexively opposed to any Democrat. As a result, whichever Democrat gains the nomination has some catching up to do with independents.

Will Biden get the Democratic nomination? His frontrunner status looks more like a bet on his polling against Trump than appeal to Democratic primary voters. His post-announcement bounce has faded, dropping from 39 percent to an August average of 29 percent. Sanders’ numbers have barely moved, down 0.4 percent since May. Warren has been the biggest mover, ascending from 8 percent to 15 percent. All three have roughly the same favorable rating among Democrats. Biden and Warren are both at 71 percent, Sanders at 72 percent. Warren’s unfavorable is somewhat lower at 13 percent while Biden and Sanders are at 21 percent and 22 percent, respectively.

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As for the rest of the field, nobody has been able to break into the top tier.

Kamala Harris had a two-month stretch where she was polling in the double-digits and matching both Sanders and Warren. Those days have passed. Harris’s August polling averaged at 7.7 percent, over 20 points behind Biden and well off the pace of Sanders and Warren. In only one poll has Harris broken the 10 percent mark. The remaining Democrats have shown very little movement. At this point, Harris is running for Vice President.

The country sits in three camps, Democrats (who are viscerally opposed to Trump), Republicans (who are viscerally opposed to the Democrats) and independents who don’t like anyone. The new faces of the Democratic Party have barely made a dent.

2020 looks to be a race between a collection of disliked geriatrics, with the final result anyone’s guess.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, is a public affairs consultant who specialized in Pennsylvania judicial elections. He earned his PhD in public policy from University of Southern California. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711