Juan Williams: Why does Trump fear GOP voters?

Last week former U.N. Ambassador Nikki HaleyNimrata (Nikki) HaleyWall Street firm predicts stock market would rally if Trump resigned Poll shows Michelle Obama would lead in New Hampshire if she entered 2020 Democratic race Five ways Trump's Syria decision spells trouble MORE broke the Republican cone of silence by tweeting, “This can’t continue…,” as the federal budget deficit raced past $1 trillion under President TrumpDonald John TrumpZuckerberg launches public defense of Facebook as attacks mount Trump leaning toward keeping a couple hundred troops in eastern Syria: report Warren says making Israel aid conditional on settlement building is 'on the table' MORE

Fear of a larger jail-break from the cult of enforced silence among Republicans about Trump’s failures is the big reason the president’s campaign officials have pushed state party officials to cancel Republican presidential primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Nevada and South Carolina. 

And that fear explains why the Republican National Committee is withholding polling data on the president from GOP candidates for state and local offices.

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“Republican consultants say the Trump information is being withheld for two reasons: to discourage candidates from distancing themselves from the president, and to avoid embarrassing him with poor results that might leak,” according to the investigative news site ProPublica.

It is no secret that Trump’s approval rating has been sagging all summer. As of Friday, 53 percent of voters disapproved of him, according to the RealClear Politics average of polls.

Who knows how high that number might go if Republicans began calling out Trump for never building that wall. 

And what happens if Republicans begin to ask about the missing health care plan that was going to be better than ObamaCare?

Trump has already thinned the ranks of high-profile Republican voices willing to challenge him on his lack of results and impulsive, autocratic behavior. GOP critics are shut down by the threat of being targeted by one of Trump’s angry tweets or worse — having Trump endorse a far-right opponent.

Then there is this odd political dynamic at play: After losing 41 seats in the midterms and watching the rush of current House Republicans into retirement, the remaining party faithful have concluded that despite Trump’s negatives, their only chance to hold on to power is to stick with Trump’s theatrical bullying and name-calling.

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Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) turned down requests from Republicans looking for someone with strong party credentials to challenge Trump. He said it would have amounted to a “kamikaze mission.”

Why the talk of political death in launching a primary challenge against Trump?

Here’s the answer, from a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll in June. Self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning adults were asked if they are “more a supporter of Donald Trump or more of a supporter of the Republican Party?”

Fifty-two percent said they are loyal to Trump. How many held a higher allegiance to the party than to Trump? Only 38 percent.

Top Republicans believe they need Trump to hold on to those Republicans who identify with Trump more than with the party.

The party can’t afford the loss of any voters because already 60 percent of all voters, according to a CNN-SSRS poll released last week, do not think Trump deserves a second term. 

In last week’s special election for a North Carolina congressional district, the Democrat came within 2 percentage points of beating the Republican in a district that Trump won by nearly 12 points in 2016.

An Emerson poll in August showed former Massachusetts Gov. Bill WeldWilliam (Bill) WeldTrump accuses media, Democrats of going 'crazy' over G-7 at his Miami resort GOP presidential challengers condemn decision to host G-7 at Trump resort One person shows up to Trump challenger Mark Sanford's formal 2020 campaign kickoff MORE (R) holding 16 percent of the GOP vote in Republican primaries against Trump.

As Vanity Fair’s Peter Hamby pointed out: “Imagine how much media attention would be given to an Obama primary challenger running in double digits at this point in 2011.”

That’s why Trump is fighting to keep up the mirage of total GOP voter fealty to him. He keeps hammering the phony message that he has set the all-time record for support within the party for any Republican president.

Yes, Trump does have strong support from Republicans — 82 percent, according to a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll.

But former President George W. Bush set the record in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.

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Trump’s fixation with this very disprovable lie is revealing about his anxiety about facing a challenge in the primaries, even from fellow Republicans he has demeaned as the “three stooges.”

He is referring to three men who have announced they will run against him in the Republican primary: former Rep. Joe WalshJoe WalshGOP presidential challengers condemn decision to host G-7 at Trump resort One person shows up to Trump challenger Mark Sanford's formal 2020 campaign kickoff George Conway accuses Trump of being a 'sociopath' MORE (R-Ill.), former South Carolina Gov. Mark SanfordMarshall (Mark) Clement SanfordTrump accuses media, Democrats of going 'crazy' over G-7 at his Miami resort GOP presidential challengers condemn decision to host G-7 at Trump resort One person shows up to Trump challenger Mark Sanford's formal 2020 campaign kickoff MORE (R) and Weld.

"I’m running because he's unfit,” Walsh said in a recent interview with ABC News. “Somebody needs to step up and there needs to be an alternative. The country is sick of this guy's tantrum. He’s — he's a child."

"I think we have to have a conversation about what it means to be a Republican," Sanford said Sept. 8 on “Fox News Sunday,” adding that today’s GOP "has lost our way.” 

The Trump campaign’s ongoing effort to stop Republican primaries from taking place next year, Walsh said on CNN, is an effort to “disenfranchise voters.”

No president in my lifetime has ever short-circuited their party’s presidential primary process. It is contrary to the basic principles of democracy.

In 1976, then-Gov. Ronald Reagan gave President Gerald Ford a run for his money in the GOP primary. In 1980, Sen. Ted Kennedy’s primary challenge to President Jimmy CarterJimmy CarterOvernight Health Care — Presented by Coalition Against Surprise Medical Billing — Judge blocks Trump 'public charge' rule | Appeals court skeptical of Trump arguments for Medicaid work requirements | CDC offers guidance for treating vaping-related cases In Syria, making America ashamed again — and weaker Garth Brooks on Jimmy Carter's volunteer work: 'Nobody cares about "Republican" or "Democrat" in heaven' MORE hurt Carter’s chance for a second term. Pat Buchanan similarly damaged President George H.W. Bush’s run for reelection in 1992.

But none of those incumbents did anything so radical as to cancel primaries — another sad first for this president.

Juan Williams is an author, and a political analyst for Fox News Channel.