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Why President Trump will enjoy success with Hispanics in 2020

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A Census Bureau report released this month reiterates what we already know, which is that Hispanics have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the economy under Donald Trump. Both the president and Republicans in Congress should leverage this critical Hispanic economic success to maximize their chances of winning in the election next year.

Census data reveals Hispanic median income reached a record high in 2018. The poverty rate for Hispanics fell to a record low of 17.6 percent. The poverty rate among Hispanic women households with no spouse present fell by 4.0 points and by 7.1 points for their children.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported that Hispanic wages grew by a healthy 3.3 percent over the last year, while the Hispanic unemployment rate currently stands at another record low of 4.2 percent. According to the nonpartisan organization known as the Latino Donor Collaborative, Latinos are the “new face” of the American workforce, comprising about 70 percent of the recent surge in growth.

Good jobs are being created. Part time jobs, often retail positions staffed by Hispanics, are declining, while full time jobs are expanding. There are 7.2 million unfilled jobs across the country, many of which pay $50,000 a year or more yet do not require a college degree. According to the latest Kauffman Foundation entrepreneurship report, Hispanics are nearly twice as likely to start their own businesses than whites are.

Hispanics are cashing in on their economic success by achieving the American dream of home ownership. Though they make up just one-fifth of the national population, Hispanics made up nearly two-thirds of the net home ownership gains in 2018. Can Republicans turn this economic success into Hispanic votes next year? Doing so could be the key to holding Senate seats in Arizona and Colorado, as well as repeating a Trump victory in Florida. The Hispanic shares of these state populations are 32 percent, 22 percent, and 26 percent, respectively.

According to recent polling by Unidos, the most important issue for Hispanics is jobs and the economy. While 37 percent of respondents said that they had voted for Republicans in the past, Republicans received only 29 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2018, about the same as what Trump and Mitt Romney received in 2016 and 2012. To expand their Hispanic support above the one-third threshold, Republicans should contrast their economic record with the socialist agenda of Democrats.

The “Medicare for All” and “Green New Deal” proposals, for example, would take roughly $32 trillion and $70 trillion out of the private sector, reducing economic opportunity for ordinary Americans. The massive tax increases needed to fund these socialist initiatives would suck private capital out of communities across the country, funds that are now being invested in good jobs and wage increases. Hispanics are at the front lines of the economy and would be the first casualties in a return to stagnant growth under the stifling regulation that Democrats favor.

Republicans should also get an assist in their Hispanic outreach efforts from the increasingly radical social policies proposed by Democrats. Hispanics are the most religious demographic in the country, with about five in six Hispanics identifying as Christian. That means Democratic support of late term abortions and progressive gender theories will turn off at least some potential Hispanic voters in the election.

Democrats recognize they are vulnerable on the issue of the economy. They are doing everything in their power to play down the success of Trump by pretending the economy is not working for ordinary people and minorities. This approach may backfire. As Hispanics continue to flourish, they could see Democrats not only as a threat to their economic success, but also as political demagogues who are out of touch with reality. Republicans should make this case in their campaigns.

Alfredo Ortiz is president and chief executive of the Job Creators Network.

Tags Donald Trump Economics Election Government Politics Religion Republicans

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