Election 2020: Why I'm watching Amy and Andy

Election 2020: Why I'm watching Amy and Andy
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With less than three months to go before Democratic voters go to the Iowa caucuses to vote, we are closely following the first tier of declared 2020 candidates: former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump State Department appointee arrested in connection with Capitol riot FireEye finds evidence Chinese hackers exploited Microsoft email app flaw since January Biden officials to travel to border amid influx of young migrants MORE, Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersABC names new deputy political director, weekend White House correspondent Ron Johnson forces reading of 628-page Senate coronavirus relief bill on floor GOP pulling out all the stops to delay COVID-19 package MORE and Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenPhilly city council calls on Biden to 'cancel all student loan debt' in first 100 days Hillicon Valley: High alert as new QAnon date approaches Thursday | Biden signals another reversal from Trump with national security guidance | Parler files a new case Senators question Bezos, Amazon about cameras placed in delivery vans MORE, and Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegThe Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by ExxonMobil - Increased security on Capitol Hill amid QAnon's March 4 date Biden to meet with bipartisan lawmakers on infrastructure The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Lawmakers face Capitol threat as senators line up votes for relief bill MORE, mayor of South Bend, Ind. 

Further down in the polls nationally and in the early states is a second tier that includes Sens. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharHillicon Valley: YouTube to restore Trump's account | House-passed election bill takes aim at foreign interference | Senators introduce legislation to create international tech partnerships House-passed election bill takes aim at foreign interference Klobuchar, Murkowski urge FTC to protect domestic abuse victims' data MORE and Cory BookerCory BookerABC names new deputy political director, weekend White House correspondent NJ lawmakers ask Gannett to stop 'union-busting' efforts at 3 state newspapers Hillicon Valley: High alert as new QAnon date approaches Thursday | Biden signals another reversal from Trump with national security guidance | Parler files a new case MORE and Silicon Valley tycoon Andrew YangAndrew YangDozens of famous men support ,400 monthly payments for mothers for 'unpaid labor at home' Yang intervenes after man threatened with metal pole on Staten Island Ferry NYC's largest union endorses Maya Wiley in mayoral race MORE

Booker is hoping for two long-shot possibilities. The first is that he can survive Iowa and New Hampshire while Biden runs out of steam, thereby capturing the lion’s share of African American voters in South Carolina (where turnout can be up to 60 percent of the total) to propel him into Super Tuesday on March 3. The second hope is that he can score enough points to become an acceptable running mate on the national ticket.


Both seem to be a bit farfetched for now.

Of this second tier, the ones to watch are Klobuchar and Yang — the former because she can become the late bloomer who can win the nomination; the latter for the harm he can do to one of the front-runners.

First, Klobuchar. She’s been elected multiple times, as county prosecutor and U.S. senator in Minnesota, including outpolling other Democrats in conservative parts of her home state. There are no grand pieces of legislation that bear her name, but Congressional Quarterly reports that she sponsored more successful legislation in the upper chamber than any of her colleagues of either party in the past session.

There have been widespread reports of apparently being a cruel and demanding boss and that she doesn’t suffer fools — none of which disqualifies her from the presidency. (Perhaps the contrary: These reports, fed by current and former staff, could help to neutralize her appearance of being just a non-flashy Midwest extra on a stage with party stars).

Her biggest assets, however, are that she is articulating the moderate position in the party better than anyone else in the field, and she is from a state neighboring Iowa — always important in the caucuses. No showboat, she (in my view) was the most outstanding challenger of Judge Brett Kavanaugh when she questioned him in the Senate. Forceful without playing to the crowd, she truly stood out when he tried to put her on the defensive regarding his love of beer.


In short, if she can do better than expected in Iowa, she could position herself as the candidate to benefit the most from any possible Biden slide. In this, her main rival is Mayor Pete; it remains to be seen if he can keep up his momentum over the next three months.

Yang is a fascinating character, though he has no real chance to win the nomination. But he is a great “none of the above” candidate in the field — and as such, he can be a real threat, particularly to Sanders. Yang is certainly no socialist, and his combination of $1,000 a month promised to every individual American — funded by a value added tax — is backed up by some dizzying math. But his real appeal is that he projects himself as a smart, overachieving techie, with a sense of humor no less, and has a loyal and growing following among millennials (the “Yang Gang”). Any rise in his polling numbers can cut more into Sanders’s key base of young people — especially young men. He is the iconoclast, the outsider, and I say he is worth watching just for that. 

Both candidates are at 5 percent in Iowa and New Hampshire, which is better than most candidates. Pay attention to any movement they show in the weeks ahead — it could give a clue about any disaffection from the front-runners, and who may be able to step in to fill in any breach.

John Zogby is founder of the Zogby Poll and a veteran of U.S. presidential polling. He has conducted polls for Reuters, the New York Post, the Miami Herald, Atlanta Journal and Constitution, Houston Chronicle, and other news media in the U.S. and abroad. Follow him on Twitter @TheJohnZogby