Electability is key to Democrats' 2020 fortunes

Electability is key to Democrats' 2020 fortunes
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As the nation takes some much-needed downtime at the end of another chaotic political year, many Democrats, indeed many Americans, will start to ponder what 2020 will bring. 

What kind of candidate will Democrats need to nominate to beat Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpDeSantis on Florida schools reopening: 'If you can do Walmart,' then 'we absolutely can do schools' NYT editorial board calls for the reopening of schools with help from federal government's 'checkbook' Mueller pens WaPo op-ed: Roger Stone 'remains a convicted felon, and rightly so' MORE? It’s an important question in a year that promises to bring unprecedented scorched earth tactics from a president who is reeling from an impeachment that will tarnish his legacy forever.

Is it a centrist like former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenDonald Trump Jr. to self-publish book 'Liberal Privilege' before GOP convention Tom Price: Here's how we can obtain more affordable care The Memo: Democrats feel rising tide in Florida MORE, Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegBiden campaign hires top cybersecurity officials to defend against threats Biden strikes populist tone in blistering rebuke of Trump, Wall Street Buttigieg's new book, 'Trust,' slated for October release MORE, Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharThe Hill's Coronavirus Report: Fauci says focus should be on pausing reopenings rather than reverting to shutdowns; WHO director pleads for international unity in pandemic response State election officials warn budget cuts could lead to November chaos Biden strikes populist tone in blistering rebuke of Trump, Wall Street MORE (D-Minn.) or late-comer Mayor Michael BloombergMichael BloombergWake up, America — see what's coming Bloomberg urges court to throw out lawsuit by former campaign staffers Former Obama Ebola czar Ron Klain says White House's bad decisions have put US behind many other nations on COVID-19; Fears of virus reemergence intensify MORE, who is spending a grotesque amount of personal money to make a name for himself in the Super Tuesday states?

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Or do Democrats need an unapologetic progressive in the mold of Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenTrump defends Roger Stone move: He was target of 'Witch Hunt' Democrats blast Trump for commuting Roger Stone: 'The most corrupt president in history' Pharma pricing is a problem, but antitrust isn't the (only) solution MORE (D-Mass.) or a Democratic Socialist like Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersBiden wins Louisiana primary Oh, Canada: Should the US emulate Canada's National Health Service? Trump glosses over virus surge during Florida trip MORE (I-Vt.)? Sanders seems to be consolidating the progressive vote after a year that saw his political future being written off after a Warren surge ate into his base of support, and after suffering a heart attack at 78 years old.

Oddly, or perhaps expectedly, things have come full circle. Biden is still comfortably atop the polls, with strong support among communities of color, which are critical voting blocs within the Democratic base.

After starting out with a strong announcement, Biden seemed to fall into a string of politically fraught situations — the resurfacing of his hostile treatment of Anita HillAnita Faye HillOur consciousness-changing moment — and a reckoning for 1972? Trump sets up for bruising campaign against Biden Clarence Thomas breaks his silence in theaters nationwide MORE during the Clarence ThomasClarence ThomasThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Justices rule Manhattan prosecutor, but not Congress, can have Trump tax records OVERNIGHT ENERGY: WH pushed for 'correction' to Weather Service tweet contradicting Trump in 'Sharpiegate' incident, watchdog says | Supreme Court rules that large swath of Oklahoma belongs to Native American tribe Clarence Thomas's wife criticized her town's 'Black Lives Matter' banner: report MORE Supreme Court confirmation hearings three decades ago, his recent treatment of women, his verbal flubs and his non-stellar debate performances. All of this led many Democrats, including many of Biden's supporters, to engage in collective bed-wetting about a man who did not seem up to the task of taking on Donald Trump.

Except Trump himself seemed to think Biden was up to the challenge. Ironically the same actions that put Trump on the path to his impeachment are the actions that, perhaps unwittingly, betrayed Trump’s biggest fear: That Biden would be the Democratic nominee. Trump’s fear of Biden convinced many Democrats that Biden might in fact be the strongest candidate.

Sanders is holding to a close second place in most polls, as he was at the very beginning of the campaign. Sanders has proven his staying power. His supporters are coming home to him after a dalliance with Sen. Warren.

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It seems 2020 will be a showdown between Biden and Sanders, or more accurately, the moderate, more centrist wing of the party and the more liberal progressives. 

Democrats and everyone else who is tired of the chaotic Trump presidency needs to remember that electability is key. 

As we begin 2020, it seems that the most electable person is Biden. At least for the time being, he can do what no other candidate has been able to do: Consolidate support among the Democrats, voters of color, independents, disaffected Republicans and Never Trumpers, who can easily see themselves voting for Joe Biden but would never pull the lever for Warren or Sanders.

Importantly, Sanders’ and Warren’s signature issues, such as “Medicare for All,” are not wholly popular. Free college and student loan debt forgiveness are worthy goals for our collective communities to get behind. But many Americans see them as slippery slopes to socialism.

As the campaign continues to unfold in 2020, two things will happen: If Warren and Sanders remain among the top Democratic tier (they will), Trump will continue to try to paint all Democrats as radical socialists who want to turn the U.S. into Venezuela. 

If Biden continues to top the field (which seems likely at the moment), Trump will spew fabricated conspiracy theories trying to tie him and son Hunter Biden to a corrupt Ukrainian prosecutor. Trump will turn the focus on Biden, or try to, to deflect attention from his Senate impeachment trial.

So where does that leave Democrats? If it is with Biden, Democrats need to remember that the most important thing is beating Trump.

This means that Bernie and his supporters would need to come on board quickly and enthusiastically, and endorse and support Biden’s candidacy early on. 

If it is Bernie or Warren, which is less probable, the same needs to happen with Biden. And while I think the party will be substantially more vulnerable to Trump’s attempts to portray Democrats as socialists with Bernie at the helm, Democrats can still prevail if they get out the vote.

About 100 million voters stayed home in 2016. Many, I suspect, can’t stand the thought of another four years of Trump. They need to be told why the Democratic nominee would be a better option for them and for the country.

It’s time to step up, Democrats. The future of our nation demands it. 

Maria Cardona is a principal at the Dewey Square Group, a Democratic strategist and a CNN/CNN Español political commentator. Follow her on Twitter @MariaTCardona.