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Bloomberg the electable

Bloomberg the electable
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The Democrats are picking their presidential candidate. The primaries and nominating convention are meant to surface that candidate who best represents Democratic ideals and voters. But what is the chance that the nominated candidate will win the electoral college? The answer is captured in the notion of electability, that is, the probability that, if nominated, a candidate will win the presidential election.

Prediction markets offer a clear answer to this question: Former New York City Mayor Michael BloombergMichael BloombergAs Trump steps back in the spotlight, will Cuomo exit stage left? 'Lucky': How Warren took down Bloomberg Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson vs. Donald Trump: A serious comparison MORE is the most electable Democrat. Indeed, as of this writing, the largest political market – Betfair, with more than $25 million in play – suggests that if nominated, Bloomberg is the only viable Democrat whose electability crosses 50 percent.

Why believe this when recent polls of hypothetical head-to-head match-ups suggest that more voters would prefer not just Bloomberg but any of former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenThe West needs a more collaborative approach to Taiwan Abbott's medical advisers were not all consulted before he lifted Texas mask mandate House approves George Floyd Justice in Policing Act MORE, former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegHere's who Biden is now considering for budget chief Biden's COVID, border policies prove he's serious about neither Harris pushes for support for cities in coronavirus relief package MORE, Sens. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharAlarming threat prompts early exit, underscoring security fears Raimondo has won confirmation, but the fight to restrict export technology to China continues Pentagon prevented immediate response to mob, says Guard chief MORE (D-Minn.), Bernie SandersBernie SandersOn The Money: Democrats deals to bolster support for relief bill | Biden tries to keep Democrats together | Retailers fear a return of the mask wars Democrats cut deals to bolster support for relief bill Hillicon Valley: High alert as new QAnon date approaches Thursday | Biden signals another reversal from Trump with national security guidance | Parler files a new case MORE (I-Vt.) or Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenHillicon Valley: High alert as new QAnon date approaches Thursday | Biden signals another reversal from Trump with national security guidance | Parler files a new case Senators question Bezos, Amazon about cameras placed in delivery vans Democrats worry Senate will be graveyard for Biden agenda MORE (D-Mass.) to President TrumpDonald TrumpHouse passes voting rights and elections reform bill DEA places agent seen outside Capitol during riot on leave Georgia Gov. Kemp says he'd 'absolutely' back Trump as 2024 nominee MORE? Polls produce snapshots of current voter sentiment by asking, if the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Such polls are horse races that ignore the actual rules of presidential elections, which are won or lost in the electoral college. By contrast, political markets trade contracts that pay off based on actual election results, forcing traders to contemplate future events and reason backwards while taking the rules of the electoral college into account.

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While prediction markets are not perfect, a high-volume market such as Betfair provides a credible vehicle for expressing the “wisdom of crowds.” In such a market, the price of an all-or-nothing security that pays off if an event such as "Sanders wins the election" occurs is an estimate for the underlying likelihood of that event.

Deducing a security price from Betfair requires a small intermediate calculation. Consider again the event “Sanders wins the election.” Betfair presently reports decimal odds of 5.9 and 6 for this outcome, depending upon whether a trader chooses to “back” (believes Sanders will win) or “lay” (believes Sanders will not win). Averaging the reciprocals of the “back” and “lay” odds yields the estimated price. 

Continuing our example, Sanders’s market-based estimate of winning the election is given by (1/5.9 + 1/6) / 2 or about 17 percent. It is thus a simple matter to obtain estimated prices – probabilities – for various candidates winning the nomination or winning the presidency from Betfair.

Having determined the market prices for winning the election and the nomination as described above, computing a candidate’s electability is a simple matter: Divide the security price for a candidate winning the presidency by the security price for this same candidate winning the nomination. The result estimates the probability that if nominated, that candidate will win the election — the electability.

Among Democratic contenders priced at a 1 percent or better chance of winning the nomination, currently Betfair judges Sanders to have the best chance of winning the nomination (41 percent) and the presidency (17 percent). But his 41 percent electability (17/41) is much lower than Bloomberg’s 53 percent (16/30). Repeating this calculation for the other viable candidates reveals electabilities of 41 percent (Biden), 32 percent (Buttigieg) and 35 percent (Klobuchar), respectively.

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Markets are volatile, of course, and political markets are no exception. But for the past several weeks, Bloomberg’s electability has consistently registered above 50 percent, and he is the only candidate who has done so.

The market has spoken: If the Democrats want their candidate to actually win the election, they should nominate Bloomberg the electable.

Edward H. Kaplan is the William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Operations Research at the Yale University School of Management. He is an expert in probability and statistics who has published academic research on prediction markets and presidential elections.