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Trump victory could oust Nancy Pelosi as Speaker

Trump victory could oust Nancy Pelosi as Speaker
© Greg Nash

No one is more frantic over the possibility of a Trump victory in November than Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiMcCarthy: 'I would bet my house' GOP takes back lower chamber in 2022 After vote against coronavirus relief package, Golden calls for more bipartisanship in Congress Democrats don't trust GOP on 1/6 commission: 'These people are dangerous' MORE

Why? Because if Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenNoem touts South Dakota coronavirus response, knocks lockdowns in CPAC speech On The Trail: Cuomo and Newsom — a story of two embattled governors Biden celebrates vaccine approval but warns 'current improvement could reverse' MORE goes down in flames, Pelosi will no longer be Speaker of the House — even if Democrats hold that chamber, as they likely will. You can count on it. 

If President TrumpDonald TrumpNoem touts South Dakota coronavirus response, knocks lockdowns in CPAC speech On The Trail: Cuomo and Newsom — a story of two embattled governors McCarthy: 'I would bet my house' GOP takes back lower chamber in 2022 MORE is reelected, Pelosi and other establishment Democrats will be to blame. It was Pelosi and her peers who orchestrated the nomination of 77-year-old Biden, panicked that far-left candidates Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersHouse Democrats pass sweeping .9T COVID-19 relief bill with minimum wage hike House set for tight vote on COVID-19 relief package On The Money: Democrats scramble to save minimum wage hike | Personal incomes rise, inflation stays low after stimulus burst MORE (I-Vt.) or Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenExclusive: How Obama went to bat for Warren Minimum wage setback revives progressive calls to nix Senate filibuster Democratic strategists start women-run media consulting firm MORE (D-Mass.) would be crushed in a general election. 

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As important, it has been Pelosi who has overseen the Democratic strategy of total and complete obstruction of Trump, and who most recently has been mum about the violence upending our nation’s biggest cities.

It was Pelosi who pushed Russiagate, and then Ukrainegate and most recently PostOfficeGate to their absurd and dishonest conclusions 

And it was Pelosi who permitted the House to embark on the fool’s mission of impeaching the president late last year, even though it was crystal clear that the effort would not succeed.  

An effort, it should be said, that led to record fund-raising for Trump’s campaign and a bump in his approval ratings. 

While Pelosi pumped up her base by endlessly lobbing grenades at the White House, she simultaneously enraged Trump supporters. Polling shows that people who voted for the president in 2016 will vote for him again, and that Republican support for the president remains strong.

It was Pelosi who from the start dismissed and downplayed the rise of progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-CortezDemocrats don't trust GOP on 1/6 commission: 'These people are dangerous' Progressives fume over Senate setbacks Budget Committee chair pledges to raise minimum wage: 'Hold me to it' MORE (D-N.Y.) in her party, a force to be channeled constructively, not alienated. Allowing AOC to speak for only 60 seconds during the interminable Democratic convention was a miscalculation. The energy of the Squad might have disrupted the virtual gathering, but that misery-fest needed some disruption.

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How can we tell Nancy Pelosi is rattled? Because, notwithstanding her reputation as a master politician, the Speaker is making mistakes.

First, stonewalling for weeks over another virus relief bill has created a potent attack line for Republicans. Just recently, Pelosi caved and is apparently set to begin talks with White House Chief of Staff Mark MeadowsMark MeadowsHow scientists saved Trump's FDA from politics Liberals howl after Democrats cave on witnesses Kinzinger calls for people with info on Trump to come forward MORE; this, after Meadows reportedly went to her office unannounced several days ago to arrange a meeting, only to be told the House Speaker was “busy.”

Busy? Too busy to send unemployment checks to struggling American families? Pelosi still insists she’s “not budging”; the White House can blame her for stalling needed help.

Her rhetoric has also become more extreme. Just recently she called Trump and Republicans in Congress “domestic enemies,” which was a new low, even for the increasingly erratic House Speaker. Ostentatiously ripping up the president’s State of the Union speech was embarrassing, but her escalating vitriol looks foolish — and desperate.

Also, Pelosi has offended progressives anew; she is backing Joe Kennedy III in his primary challenge against incumbent uber-liberal Edward MarkeyEd MarkeyLawmakers commemorate one-year anniversary of Arbery's killing Democrats revive debate over calling impeachment witnesses LIVE COVERAGE: Senate trial moves to closing arguments MORE in the Massachusetts Senate primary. Justice Democrats, home base for AOC and the Squad, have said her endorsement of Kennedy “reeks of hypocrisy” after the Speaker had condemned that group for supporting progressive primary challengers against sitting Democrats. 

Even some of her closest allies in the House, like Jerry NadlerJerrold (Jerry) Lewis NadlerHouse Judiciary split on how to address domestic extremism George Floyd police reform bill reintroduced in House Nadler presses DOJ to prosecute all involved in Capitol riot MORE (D-N.Y.) and Carolyn MaloneyCarolyn MaloneyLawmakers line up behind potential cyber breach notification legislation DeJoy apologizes for mail delays while defending Postal Service changes House panel spars over GameStop frenzy, trading apps MORE (D-N.Y.), have split with her over the Kennedy endorsement. 

Why would Pelosi be nervous about a Trump victory, with polls showing Biden comfortably in the lead?     

First, the gap is closing, and especially in the critical swing states. The most recent poll from CNBC shows Biden ahead by only three points in the battleground states.    

Second, America’s blue cities are in trouble, and Americans – including black Americans most injured by rising crime – are beginning to blame the Democrats in charge. CNN’s Trump-hating Don LemonDon Carlton LemonFor myopic media, breaking up with Trump will be hard to do Don Lemon to ex-CNN colleague McEnany: 'Girl, bye' CNN's Don Lemon says Newsmax will 'never be as powerful as Fox News' MORE recently urged Biden to say something – anything – about the nightly riots in cities like Portland and, now, Kenosha. In an interview on CNN, Lemon admitted, “The rioting has got to stop…it’s showing up in the polling, it’s showing up in focus groups.”

Never mind that hundreds of small businesses, many of them minority-owned, are getting trashed; the important thing is what focus groups are saying. Good grief.

The prodding from CNN and other liberal outlets finally persuaded the former VP to speak out, but his condemnation of the violence was too little, and too late. His polling has continued downward. 

Third, COVID-19, upon which threat Pelosi and her associates have banked everything, is on the decline. More worrisome for the Biden camp, the same CNBC poll shows that voters’ approval of how Trump has handled the pandemic has risen.   

Fourth, her party’s convention was a total bust. Polling confirms that Biden got no bounce from the boring grievance-laden slog, while the betting odds on his reelection declined every day of the event, and continue to drop.

Fifth, it really is all about the economy. Growth this quarter and next will surpass expectations, which have continually been ratcheted higher. Home sales, vehicle sales, retail sales, hours worked, the PMIs for service and manufacturing, durable goods orders — all point to progress. 

Unemployment is still high, but with companies gearing up to replenish inventories, hiring will increase. We are not out of the woods, but the trends are encouraging.

Finally, the Republican convention is showcasing the president’s considerable achievements, highlighting him bringing hostages home, creating opportunity zones, enacting criminal justice reform, pushing health care measures that have saved lives, revamping trade deals and so much more. While Republicans talk up policies to spur our progress, Biden pushes policies that Bernie Sanders rightly says would make him the “most progressive president since FDR.”

The tide has turned, Trump’s chances are rising and Biden is still in his basement. In her latest press conference, the Speaker declared that Biden should not debate the president. That’s how worried she is.

Pelosi barely won her Speakership at the convening of the last Congress in January, 2019; to win over those calling for new leadership, she agreed to measures that might force her to step down in 2022. My guess: If Trump wins, she won’t make it ‘til then.

Liz Peek is a former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim & Company. Follow her on Twitter @lizpeek.