Budowsky: An epic wave of anti-Trump early voters
It is almost Biblical to watch an unprecedented number of early voters, a large majority of whom are anti-Trump voters, making the journey to vote early, in defiance of aggressive attempts at voter suppression, as though they are crossing the Red Sea to renew the real America they passionately believe in.
It is touching, moving and inspirational to watch a record number of early voters, from first-time young voters to alarmed senior citizens, wait in line for three or five or even seven hours to make their stand in historic numbers for the future of American democracy.
In my view there is a 15 percent chance that President Trump ekes out a narrow Electoral College win despite losing a popular vote landslide, a 50 percent chance that former Vice President Joe Biden wins a narrow to moderate Electoral College victory, and a 35 percent chance that Biden and Democrats in Congress win a sweeping, historic and realigning popular vote landslide and Electoral College majority.
The greatest danger to Democrats is not some brilliant move by Trump, whose extreme and intense focus on his base has collapsed his support from all other voters. It is the current Supreme Court which, I predict, has a majority of Republican-appointed justices ready to cast party-line votes to disqualify legitimate voters if — and only if — the election is close enough for them to fix for Trump in cases reminiscent of Bush v. Gore in 2000.
This is why the historic wave of early voting, and probably a historic turnout when all ballots are ultimately counted, is a godsend to all who believe in the sanctity of American democracy.
My theory of the 2020 election, which is different from many commentators, is that the giant mass of Americans who are vehemently opposed to Trump will be just as motivated to vote as the Trump base. Because the mass of voters who oppose Trump is significantly greater than the base of voters who support him, the total turnout for Biden and congressional Democrats could, unlike 2016, surpass their showing in polls.
The giant mass of small donors for Democrats, as I predicted shortly after the death of the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, lifted like a rocket ship to give Biden and Democrats a gigantic fundraising advantage over Trump and Republicans. The anti-Trump wave of early voters is parallel to the anti-Trump and anti-Republican wave of small donors.
In politics, motivation is destiny. It is the powerful and intense motivation of voters who disapprove of Trump that is underestimated by many pundits, and revealed by the waves of early voting and small donations.
Senior voters and others deeply alarmed by the deadly dangers of COVID-19 are powerfully motivated to support Biden and Democrats, for life and death reasons, by Trump’s catastrophic failures to protect Americans from the deadly disease.
Young voters, whose antipathy to Trump is widespread and deeply felt, are surging in early voting by record numbers.
Black voters, alarmed by Trump’s appeals to racism and offended by voter suppression tactics, are hypermotivated and hyperorganized to vote.
Women voters, appalled and alarmed by Trump, are rising in such epic numbers that 2020 could be a historically transformative election in the year that women celebrated the 100th anniversary of their being given the right to vote.
The epic wave of these early voters gives Biden and Democrats a fighting chance to win surprising victories in Georgia, Texas and Ohio. Eleven Republican Senate seats, in Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Colorado, Arizona, Montana, Maine, North Carolina and potentially Texas and South Carolina, are within reach for Democrats — and could be won with a high turnout for strong Democratic candidates.
The epic wave of early anti-Trump voters and donors is driven by a deep wellspring of American patriotism, a deep and intense fear of Trump, and a powerful yearning for a nobler America that can change the world on Election Day.
Budowsky was an aide to former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) and former Rep. Bill Alexander (D-Ark.), who was chief deputy majority whip of the House of Representatives. He holds an LLM in international financial law from the London School of Economics.