Will the Senate immigration bill attract 70 or more votes?
That question has been analyzed from many angles in recent weeks.
Most, if not all, of the 54 senators who caucus with the Democrats are expected to vote “yes.” To get to 70, at least 16 of 46 Senate Republicans would also have to approve the Gang of Eight’s bill.
Speaker John BoehnerJohn BoehnerLobbyists bounce back under Trump Business groups silent on Trump's Ex-Im nominee Chaffetz won't run for reelection MORE (R-Ohio), no fan of the Senate legislation, plans on moving smaller immigration bills later this summer. But Sen. Charles SchumerCharles SchumerSchumer: Trump isn't a good negotiator Reagan's 'voodoo economics' are precisely what America needs When political opportunity knocked, Jason Chaffetz never failed to cash in MORE (D-N.Y.) believes BoehnerJohn BoehnerLobbyists bounce back under Trump Business groups silent on Trump's Ex-Im nominee Chaffetz won't run for reelection MORE will feel the heat after the Senate acts.
In a Sunday interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Schumer said, “I could envision in the late summer or early fall if Boehner tries to bottle the bill up or put something in without a path to citizenship — if there’s no path to citizenship, there’s not a bill — but if he tries to bottle it up or do things like that, I could see a million people on the Mall in Washington.”
About a dozen Senate Republicans will vote “yes” or are likely to vote “yes,” and roughly 19 are expected to vote “no.”
That leaves 15 GOP senators on the fence, including Sens. Lamar AlexanderLamar AlexanderLawmakers reintroduce online sales tax bills Overnight Healthcare: New GOP health bill on life support | ObamaCare insurer threatens to leave over subsidies Trump's FDA nominee clears key Senate committee MORE (Tenn.), Saxby ChamblissSaxby ChamblissGOP hopefuls crowd Georgia special race Democrats go for broke in race for Tom Price's seat Spicer: Trump will 'help the team' if needed in Georgia special election MORE (Ga.), Richard BurrRichard BurrTrump voter who cast ballot illegally won’t be charged Burr: US in new Cold War with Russia Senator: No signs of GOP 'slow-walking' Russia investigation MORE (N.C.), Rob PortmanRob PortmanTrump talks big on trade, but workers need action Trump tax plan prompts GOP fears about deficit Overnight Regulation: Senators call for 'cost-effective' regs | FCC chief unveils plans to roll back net neutrality MORE (Ohio), Jerry MoranJerry MoranIT modernization bill reintroduced in Congress At the table: The importance of advocating for ABLE GOP lawmakers lead way in holding town halls MORE (Kan.), Pat Toomey (Pa.), John ThuneJohn ThuneWant to grow the economy? Make student loan repayment assistance tax-free. Net neutrality fight descends into trench warfare Hopes fade for using tax reform on infrastructure MORE (S.D.) and Roger WickerRoger WickerNet neutrality fight descends into trench warfare Ryan praises FCC chief's plans to roll back net neutrality FCC head unveils plan to roll back net neutrality MORE (Miss.).
A few of these lawmakers, such as Burr, Alexander and Chambliss, voted “no” on immigration reform bills in both 2006 and 2007.
But immigration legislation has momentum. The border security amendment crafted by Sens. Bob CorkerBob CorkerState spokesman: Why nominate people for jobs that may be eliminated? The Hill's 12:30 Report Senate Foreign Relations chair: Erdogan referendum win 'not something to applaud' MORE (R-Tenn.) and John HoevenJohn HoevenCongress nears deal on help for miners Overnight Energy: Lawmakers work toward deal on miners’ benefits Congress nears deal on help for miners MORE (R-N.D.) has given it new life. But to get to 70, at least a handful of the undecided GOP senators are going to have to get off the fence and vote for it.