Will the Senate immigration bill attract 70 or more votes?
That question has been analyzed from many angles in recent weeks.
Most, if not all, of the 54 senators who caucus with the Democrats are expected to vote “yes.” To get to 70, at least 16 of 46 Senate Republicans would also have to approve the Gang of Eight’s bill.
Speaker John BoehnerJohn BoehnerNetanyahu: 'No question' about Trump's support for Israel The Hill's 12:30 Report Boehner compares Trump to Teddy Roosevelt MORE (R-Ohio), no fan of the Senate legislation, plans on moving smaller immigration bills later this summer. But Sen. Charles SchumerCharles SchumerSecond Dem calls for probe into Russian election involvement Schumer calls for Senate probe into Russian interference Senate Dems hold out on spending deal, risking shutdown MORE (D-N.Y.) believes BoehnerJohn BoehnerNetanyahu: 'No question' about Trump's support for Israel The Hill's 12:30 Report Boehner compares Trump to Teddy Roosevelt MORE will feel the heat after the Senate acts.
In a Sunday interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Schumer said, “I could envision in the late summer or early fall if Boehner tries to bottle the bill up or put something in without a path to citizenship — if there’s no path to citizenship, there’s not a bill — but if he tries to bottle it up or do things like that, I could see a million people on the Mall in Washington.”
About a dozen Senate Republicans will vote “yes” or are likely to vote “yes,” and roughly 19 are expected to vote “no.”
That leaves 15 GOP senators on the fence, including Sens. Lamar AlexanderLamar AlexanderGOP eyes big gamble on ObamaCare Mnuchin, Price meet with GOP senators Reid bids farewell to the Senate MORE (Tenn.), Saxby ChamblissSaxby ChamblissWyden hammers CIA chief over Senate spying Cruz is a liability Inside Paul Ryan’s brain trust MORE (Ga.), Richard BurrRichard BurrTop Intel Dem: Congress 'far from consensus' on encryption Trump must be an advocate for the Small Business Administration Dems pledge to fight Sessions nomination MORE (N.C.), Rob PortmanRob PortmanSenate passes dozens of bills on way out of town Senators to Trump: Get tough on Russia over Ukraine John Glenn dies at 95 MORE (Ohio), Jerry MoranJerry MoranSenate GOP to Obama: Stop issuing new rules Overnight Tech: Bill protecting online reviews heads to Obama | New addition to FCC transition team | Record Cyber Monday Overnight Finance: Trump expected to pick Steven Mnuchin for Treasury | Budget chair up for grabs | Trump team gets deal on Carrier jobs MORE (Kan.), Pat Toomey (Pa.), John ThuneJohn ThuneOvernight Tech: Last-ditch effort to get Dem FCC commish confirmed | Facebook's Sandberg on fake news | Microsoft completes LinkedIn deal FCC chairman willing to resign to get colleague confirmed Overnight Tech: AT&T, Time Warner CEOs defend merger before Congress | More tech execs join Trump team | Republican details path to undoing net neutrality MORE (S.D.) and Roger WickerRoger WickerRepublican wins La. Senate runoff in final 2016 race FCC chairman willing to resign to get colleague confirmed GOP eager to see Harry Reid go MORE (Miss.).
A few of these lawmakers, such as Burr, Alexander and Chambliss, voted “no” on immigration reform bills in both 2006 and 2007.
But immigration legislation has momentum. The border security amendment crafted by Sens. Bob CorkerBob CorkerCorker calls Tillerson 'very impressive' Trump picks Exxon CEO Tillerson for secretary of State: report Senate passes dozens of bills on way out of town MORE (R-Tenn.) and John HoevenJohn HoevenSenate GOP to Obama: Stop issuing new rules Feds deny permit for Dakota Access pipeline Dem senator to meet with Trump MORE (R-N.D.) has given it new life. But to get to 70, at least a handful of the undecided GOP senators are going to have to get off the fence and vote for it.