What economic recession?

What economic recession?
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From the very moment that Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpDeWine tests negative for coronavirus a second time Several GOP lawmakers express concern over Trump executive orders Beirut aftermath poses test for US aid to frustrating ally MORE won the 2016 election, the media has been chattering incessantly about a major recession that is supposedly just around the corner. As the country awoke to the news of his victory as president, the stock market rocketed upwards, yet liberal economist Paul Krugman inexplicably prophesied in the New York Times that we were probably facing a “global recession” with no end in sight. Less than a week later, he wrote about an impending “Trump slump.”

Krugman was not alone. Matt Krantz of USA Today thought a recession was on the way because Trump is a Republican president, and that was before Trump even took office. After his inauguration, despite strong growth and impressive job creation, the media continued its pessimistic tune. Quin Hillyer was certain last year that recession was on the horizon because of the strategic tariffs of the administration. “Get ready for rough times,” he wrote, predicting the crash would come by fall and advising people to “buy gold, hoard cash, and stock up on good canned foods.”

Even when the end of the year came and still no recession had arrived, economist Evan Kraft absurdly accused Trump of readying a “scapegoat” for his eventual failure. During this whole time period, economic growth across the nation has been strong. Unemployment is at historic lows, and wages are growing at the fastest rate in over a decade. By virtually any conceivable measure of progress in the economy and labor market, the Trump presidency has been a resounding success from the beginning.


But here we are again. It has been the inverted yield curve on Treasury bonds that has journalists absolutely convinced that we are soon headed off the economic cliff. The poorly concealed glee that the press corps is expressing at the thought of economic calamity is unconscionable. The idea that millions of Americans might plunge into hardship seems to do nothing to dampen their excitement over the one thing that would give the Democrats a chance of defeating Trump in the 2020 election.

I have some bad news for these folks. First off, Trump has great odds to win reelection. Second of all, and this should come with some relief given the sorry state of journalism jobs right now, the potential recession exists exclusively in their heads and their headlines. In reality, only 2 percent of economists polled this month believe that a recession will start this year. Even former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet YellenJanet Louise YellenPandemic reveals flaws of unemployment insurance programs On The Money: McConnell previews GOP coronavirus bill | Senate panel advances Trump Fed nominee who recently supported gold standard | Economists warn about scaled-back unemployment benefits Senate panel advances Trump Fed nominee who recently supported gold standard MORE, who had served under President Obama, told Fox Business that a recession is unlikely.

The economy moves in cycles, and we are technically overdue for a contraction, which makes the economic boom of the Trump era even more impressive. But following the anemic recovery of the Obama era, some economists believe the economy still has demand capable of fueling growth for the foreseeable future. This means that instead of getting worse, economic conditions might actually soon improve.

Trump and his team of advisers have done an admirable job of sustaining solid growth and prosperity. There is no reason this cannot continue for another five years. Apart from partisans like Krugman, economists do their best to predict recessions. Inevitably, some economists know what they are talking about and some do not. Winston Churchill supposedly once said, “If you put two economists in a room, you get two opinions, unless one of them is Lord Keynes, in which case you get three opinions.”

Indeed, that witticism speaks to the inherent uncertainty of economic forecasting, which confounds even experienced professionals. The fact that the armchair economists of the mainstream media seem to be almost unanimous in predicting an impending recession only proves that they have substituted wishful thinking for sober analysis. They have been telling us that a recession is just around the corner from practically the moment they realized that Trump had been elected, and they have been wrong every single time. Why would we start listening to them now?

Madison Gesiotto is an attorney and a commentator who serves with the advisory board of the Donald Trump campaign. She was an inauguration spokesperson and former Miss Ohio. She is on Twitter @MadisonGesiotto.