If the GOP loses the House, immigration will be the reason why

If the GOP loses the House, immigration will be the reason why
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When President TrumpDonald TrumpCuban embassy in Paris attacked by gasoline bombs Trump Jr. inches past DeSantis as most popular GOP figure in new poll: Axios Trump endorses Ken Paxton over George P. Bush in Texas attorney general race MORE’s U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) removed “Nation of Immigrants” from its mission statement last week, it sent yet another message to the world that while America is changing, some in the Republican Party aren’t changing with it.

The problem for the GOP is that this particular anti-immigrant message, on the heels of so many before it, is also being heard by suburban voters in swing House districts nationwide — the very people in the very districts who are poised to flip the House back to Democratic control. 


For all the talk about Obama-Trump voters, there is a significant cohort of Romney-Clinton voters clustered in swing, suburban districts across red and blue states. These are educated, well-off, primarily white Americans in diverse communities who are turned off by nativist rhetoric and policy. In 2016, as Politico’s Jesse Ferguson pointed out, Clinton won communities that have historically been written off by Democrats, “places like California’s Orange County, Utah’s Salt Lake County, Texas’ Fort Bend County and Georgia’s Gwinnett and Cobb Counties.”


Just look at Republican John CulbersonJohn Abney CulbersonNASA's Europa Clipper has been liberated from the Space Launch System Texas Republicans sound post-2020 alarm bells 2020 Democratic Party platform endorses Trump's NASA moon program MORE’s 7th district in Texas, which includes wealthy enclaves of Houston and upscale suburbs. CNN’s Ron Brownstein puts this district in his “Romneyland” category; a district that went to Romney by more than 20 points in 2012, and broke for Clinton by a point in 2016. Houston, which was devastated by Hurricane Harvey, has relied on immigrant workers to literally help rebuild the city. To put a finer point on it, the voters in Texas’ 7th District know and rely on the very immigrants the Trump administration would like to deport.

The failed campaigns of Republicans Ed Gillespie in 2017 (who conflated immigrants with MS-13), Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt RomneySenators scramble to save infrastructure deal Schumer urges GOP to ignore Trump: He's 'rooting for failure' Senate infrastructure talks on shaky grounds MORE in 2012 (who proposed “self-deportation”), and Sharon Angle (whose nativist appeals fell short against Harry ReidHarry Mason ReidWarner backing 'small carve-out' on filibuster for voting rights Senate hopefuls embrace nuking filibuster Biden fails to break GOP 'fever' MORE in 2010) — are the most noteworthy harbingers of what may come in November. According to Cook’s Political report, 25 Republican districts are either leaning Democratic or are toss-ups. Some models show Democrats picking up an astounding 45-50 seats (they only need 24 to take back the House).

When you add up the energy of Democratic voters, with the concern among suburbanites for the limbo Dreamers face and the mean-spirited rhetoric the White House continues pushing, a perfect storm is brewing.

This is why nearly two dozen House Republicans held a press conference calling on Speaker Ryan to move Dreamer legislation a few months back. It’s also why Trump’s squandering of his Nixon-goes-to-China moment, that would provide him with a bipartisan victory that neither George W. Bush nor Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaObama setting up big bash to celebrate his 60th A path to climate, economic and environmental justice is finally on the horizon Emergency infrastructure needed to keep Americans safe: Public media MORE could achieve, is so disappointing. 

None of this was inevitable for Republicans. With the strongest economy in two decades, a tax cut that is becoming more popular, and a foreign policy that most Americans support, the House should not be in play. But it is, and to a very large degree, it is because of how Republicans are treating the issue of immigration.

According to polls, nearly 90 percent of Americans support the protection of DACA recipients. Evangelicals, who make up a quarter of Americans and an influential conservative voting bloc, have been very vocal that any GOP immigration reform measure include protections for dreamers, and protection of families.

Key portions of the Republican electorate, from business leaders, to law enforcement, to the faith-community are unified in their goal of passing common-sense reform that protects Dreamers and secures the border. A consensus deal is not only the right thing to do politically, it’s the right thing to do morally, and it is in the best interest of American workers and their families.

You don’t have to look much further than Trump’s reading of “The Snake” to a raucous CPAC audience to understand why his administration no longer believes we should be a nation of immigrants. The president sees immigrants as threats, takers, as, ultimately, something other than Americans.

Fortunately, for voters across the country, particularly those in fast changing suburban districts, immigrants are something else. They are our children’s best friend, the family one pew over at church, the owner of the well-kept home down the street. Immigrants and their children are the founders of 43 percent of Fortune 500 companies.

Through his rhetoric and actions, Trump is passing up a chance to make history and putting Republican majorities at risk.

Ali Noorani is the executive director of the National Immigration Forum and author of the 2017 book “There Goes the Neighborhood.”