Conservatives bankrolled and dominated Kavanaugh confirmation media campaign

Conservatives bankrolled and dominated Kavanaugh confirmation media campaign
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The dust may have settled on Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughACLU, Women's March to hold nationwide protests over abortion bans Warren calls for Congress to pass federal laws protecting Roe v. Wade The Hill's Morning Report — Presented by Pass USMCA Coalition — Trump: GOP has `clear contrast' with Dems on immigration MORE’s nomination to the nation’s highest court – at least for now – but the tally of money spent on the fight reveals how special interests, particularly on the right, fueled his rise.

At the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, we tracked television ad spending in connection with Kavanaugh’s nomination, with data provided by Kantar Media/CMAG. That data shows that nearly $10.4 million was spent on ads supporting or opposing Kavanaugh’s nomination.

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These ad buys highlight how the Supreme Court confirmation process looks increasingly like a political campaign – and the outsized amount of money spent just before the midterms, particularly in states with vulnerable Democrats, could impact the balloting next month.

Pro-Kavanaugh groups dominated the airwaves

Despite Kavanaugh’s characterization of the major spenders in the nomination fight as “outside left-wing opposition groups,” and Republican Sen. Susan Collins’ claim that “[i]nterest groups have…spent an unprecedented amount of dark money opposing this nomination,” our data show that conservative groups supporting Kavanaugh overwhelmingly dominated the TV ad battle.

Pro-Kavanaugh groups ran a total of $7.3 million in ads. Much of that cash came from the Judicial Crisis Network (more on them below), along with $1.2 million from the National Rifle Association and nearly $1.1 million from America First Policies, a group led by President TrumpDonald John TrumpComey: Barr is 'sliming his own department' GOP Mueller critic says Flynn contacted him during special counsel probe: report Acting DHS secretary threatened to quit after clashing with Miller: report MORE’s senior campaign advisors. Groups opposing the nomination spent less than half that amount, with $2.9 million in total spending on TV ads.

Even after Dr. Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations, pro-Kavanaugh groups outspent anti-Kavanaugh groups $1.3 million to $860,000.

Major spenders: Judicial Crisis Network, NRA, and Demand Justice

The Judicial Crisis Network (JCN), a conservative organization that has worked to influence who sits on state and federal benches for years, dominated the airwaves. With a total of $3.9 million in pro-Kavanaugh television ads, the group spent three times as much as the next biggest spender. In fact, JCN’s ads were worth over a million more than those by all anti-Kavanaugh groups combined.

Like most groups supporting and opposing Kavanaugh, JCN does not report its donors. JCN’s past funders are reported to be linked to the conservative Federalist Society – whose executive vice president, Leonard Leo, has advised the Trump Administration on judicial nominees, including assisting with the Kavanaugh and Gorsuch selection processes—and to a single opaque mega-donor.

The second largest spender, the NRA, spent over $1.2 million on ads supporting the nomination, while the largest opposition group, Demand Justice Initiative, ran $1.1 million in ads, less than a third of JCN’s total ad spending.

Targeted senators

Nearly half of all TV ads ― 40 percent, or $4.1 million ― aired in West Virginia, North Dakota, and Indiana, the home states of three Democrats with tough election battles this November: Senators Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinLabor head warns of 'frightening uptick' in black lung disease among miners Labor leader: Trump has stopped erosion of coal jobs Overnight Energy: States fight Trump rollback of Obama lightbulb rules | Greens seek hearing over proposed rule on energy efficiency tests | Top Dem asks GAO to investigate climate threat MORE, Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampOn The Money: Stocks sink on Trump tariff threat | GOP caught off guard by new trade turmoil | Federal deficit grew 38 percent this fiscal year | Banks avoid taking position in Trump, Dem subpoena fight Fight over Trump's new NAFTA hits key stretch Former senators launching effort to help Dems win rural votes MORE, and Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyObama honors 'American statesman' Richard Lugar Former GOP senator Richard Lugar dies at 87 Ralph Reed: Biden is a 'formidable and strong candidate' MORE respectively. Heitkamp and Donnelly ultimately voted against Kavanaugh, while Manchin was the lone Democrat who voted to confirm him.

In addition, groups spent $2.8 million, or 27 percent of all TV ad spending, on ads aired in the home states of Senators Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsThe Hill's Morning Report — Presented by Pass USMCA Coalition — Trump: GOP has `clear contrast' with Dems on immigration Overnight Health Care — Presented by Campaign for Accountability — House passes drug pricing bills amid ObamaCare row | Senate Republicans running away from Alabama abortion law | Ocasio-Cortez confronts CEO over K drug price tag Colorado secretary of state bans employees from traveling to Alabama after abortion law MORE (R-Maine) and Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiOvernight Health Care — Presented by Campaign for Accountability — House passes drug pricing bills amid ObamaCare row | Senate Republicans running away from Alabama abortion law | Ocasio-Cortez confronts CEO over K drug price tag Senate Republicans running away from Alabama abortion law Bipartisan senators unveil measure to end surprise medical bills MORE (R-AK), two critical Republican votes. Ultimately, Murkowski was the lone Republican to vote against Kavanaugh, while Collins voted to confirm him. Days after Kavanaugh’s confirmation, JCN launched an ad asking viewers to “Thank Susan Collins for being a reasonable voice in Washington.” JCN has already spent $78,640 on this ad, although Collins is not even up for re-election this year.

Tone of ads shifted following sexual assault allegations

After attempted rape and sexual assault allegations emerged against Kavanaugh, the tone and substance of ads shifted. All but one of the 22 new ads that aired after that point centered on those claims. Pro-Kavanaugh ads switched from emphasizing Kavanaugh’s “integrity” and qualifications to attacking the allegations against him – and his accusers.

Multiple new ads supporting Kavanaugh dismissed these allegations as merely a politically motivated “smear” campaign. Mirroring Kavanaugh’s strikingly partisan testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, several ads blamed Democrats: for instance, one ad alleged “liberal Democrats will stop at nothing to smear him.” Another ad claimed, “Democrats don’t care about protecting women – and they never have,” featuring images of Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonSeveral factors have hindered 'next up' presidential candidates in recent years Criminal justice includes food security — we can't ban the social safety net Rosy economic data belies a harsh reality for many Americans MORE and Harvey Weinstein and concluding, “Democrats have just one goal – expanding their power.”

Several pro-Kavanaugh ads dismissed the allegations as “unproven,” “disgusting,” or “unsubstantiated,” and one said explicitly, “It never happened.” One ad even attacked Dr. Ford herself, saying she “can’t recall key details, and no one can substantiate the claims – it’s time to move on.”

Perhaps to limit the appearance that their ads were dismissive of the women making the accusations, JCN, the largest spender post-allegations, only aired ads featuring female narrators after allegations of sexual misconduct surfaced, while a majority of their previous ads featured male narrators.

Ads opposing Kavanaugh’s nomination also refocused on the allegations against him. The ACLU, which announced its opposition to Kavanaugh after the Judiciary Committee hearings on Ford’s claims, spent $529,000 on the most expensive anti-Kavanaugh ads released after the allegations. The ads featured videos of Bill Clinton and Bill Cosby and concluded, “We’ve seen this before – denials from powerful men… Integrity matters.”

Laila Robbins is a research and program associate in the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, where she works on issues pertaining to judicial legitimacy and independence.