Does Pyongyang’s third intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test of the year on Tuesday mark a tipping point for a course of a U.S. military confrontation with North Korea? If so, the fate of hundreds of thousands of people, including some 200,000 Americans in Greater Metropolitan Seoul, may be at stake.
Suddenly, deterrence seems to have become a dirty word. For half a century, we lived with 30,000 Soviet nuclear weapons. Since 1964, we have lived with Chinese nuclear weapons — which at the time sparked the sentiments that crazy communist Mao Zedong shouldn’t be allowed to have them.
Containment and deterrence have a spotless track record. But apparently that’s not good enough for the Trump administration.
While it is not completely clear, at times, President Trump has hinted that a North Korea with an ICBM that could deliver a nuclear weapon on a U.S. city would be an unacceptable threat and that he “would totally destroy” North Korea with “fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
But at other times, the adults in his administration, like Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, have framed U.S. military action as a response to North Korean action: "Any threat to the United States or its territories, including Guam, or our allies will be met with a massive military response, a response both effective and overwhelming," Mattis told CNN in September.
However, Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamOvernight Defense & National Security — Milley becomes lightning rod Joint Chiefs Chairman Milley becomes lightning rod on right GOP senators unveil bill designating Taliban as terrorist organization MORE (R-S.C.) has the impression that mere possession of an operational ICBM would trigger a Trump military strike. After the latest ICBM test, Graham told CNN, “If we have to go to war to stop this, we will. We’re headed toward a war if things don’t change.”
Trump’s national security adviser, H. R. McMaster, has suggested a “preventive war,” and said Trump “is willing to do anything necessary” to prevent North Korea from threatening the U.S. with nuclear weapons.
A few little problems
But there are a few little problems that those who define simply having a military capability a causis belli won’t talk about. For starters, we don’t actually know what tunnels and mountains North Korea hides its mobile ballistic missiles in. Nor do we know exactly how many nuclear weapons Kim has — or where they are.
Finally, we don’t know how many highly enriched uranium facilities they have to manufacture fissile material or where they all are. So, how do you destroy their nuclear and missile program — at the risk of escalation to a nuclear war — if you don’t know where most of the targets are?
But there is a more ominous problem that those advocating “preventive” or “pre-emptive” strikes don’t talk about. They essentially argue that denuclearization efforts have failed, and that it is better to strike now when Pyongyang has relatively few nukes, however horrific the consequences, than wait until it has a larger arsenal, and the damage would be even greater.
Most estimates that have gamed a military conflict suggest that several hundred thousand may die in short order — including several thousand Americans.
RELATED STORIES FROM THE HILL
- CMDR. MICHAEL NORDEEN: North Korea's latest missile test sends China a clear message
- BUCK SEXTON, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 11: Get ready for a North Korea that can fire nukes anywhere
- PATRICIA M. KIM: Time to sharpen our coercive diplomacy toward North Korea
But they are betting that no diplomatic outcome would be possible, sanctions or other developments won’t at some point change Pyongyanhg’s behavior after a period of enhanced containment/deterrence. Either admit that or shut up.
That is likely why no political leader will go near it. Recall the Cuban Missile Crisis, when President Kennedy and Premier Khrushchev went to the edge before backing down. But Trump is neither a statesman nor an ordinary politician.
It must be said that those who argue the enhancing containment and deterrence of North Korea is the least bad option, also entertain risks. The deterrence case is based on the assumption that Pyongyang’s top priority is regime survival. Therefore, they would not start a war, knowing that as Trump has promised they would be “totally destroyed.”
But there is concern that once Pyongyang has the ability to hit the U.S. mainland, they will seek to coerce the U.S. off the Korean Peninsula and perhaps coerce South Korea into unification on Kim’s terms with the threat of limited nuclear war.
“The North Koreans have shown, through their words and actions, their intention to blackmail the United States into abandoning our South Korean ally, potentially clearing the path for a second Korean War,” General McMaster said.
“The president’s been very clear about it,” he said at another point. “He said he’s not going to tolerate North Korea being able to threaten the United States.” McMaster has said more than once that “preventive war” may be necessary if diplomacy fails.
Americans, with a “can do” mindset tend to think all problems have solutions in a timeframe we want. But some problems can only be managed until circumstances change. But in any case, before the U.S. acts, the administration must be honest about the costs and risks.
Robert Manning is a senior fellow of the Brent Scowcroft Center for International Security at the Atlantic Council and its Foresight, Strategy and Risks Initiative. He served as a senior counselor to the undersecretary of State for global affairs from 2001 to 2004, as a member of the U.S. Department of State Policy Planning Staff from 2004 to 2008 and on the National Intelligence Council (NIC) Strategic Futures Group, 2008-12. Follow him on Twitter @Rmanning4.