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Budowsky: Great for Dems: Trump dominates GOP

Budowsky: Great for Dems: Trump dominates GOP
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Today former President TrumpDonald TrumpBiden administration still seizing land near border despite plans to stop building wall: report Illinois House passes bill that would mandate Asian-American history lessons in schools Overnight Defense: Administration says 'low to moderate confidence' Russia behind Afghanistan troop bounties | 'Low to medium risk' of Russia invading Ukraine in next few weeks | Intelligence leaders face sharp questions during House worldwide threats he MORE dominates the Republican Party, to a degree unprecedented in modern political history. This fact creates enormous opportunities for Democrats and grave danger for Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections and the 2024 presidential election.

The degree that Trump has ruled the GOP from his campaign in 2016 until today is an incredible achievement for Trump, but has locked Republicans into unpopular positions and unpopular actions that they cannot escape from without angering Trump, which a significant majority of GOP politicians simply will not do.

There are objective political reasons that after four years of the Trump presidency Democrats won control of the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, and Democratic President BidenJoe BidenBiden administration still seizing land near border despite plans to stop building wall: report Olympics, climate on the agenda for Biden meeting with Japanese PM Boehner on Afghanistan: 'It's time to pull out the troops' MORE now occupies the Oval Office.

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To quantify the situation, according to the summary of polling from RealClearPolitics as of Tuesday morning, compare the following numbers. Biden’s ratings are more than 53 percent favorable and slightly more than 42 percent unfavorable, with his approval numbers more than 11 points above his disapproval. By contrast the numbers for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellMcCarthy and Biden haven't spoken since election Democrats roll out legislation to expand Supreme Court Wall Street spent .9B on campaigns, lobbying in 2020 election: study MORE (R-Ky.) are horrific: only 24 percent approval and a greater than 60 percent disapproval, leaving his disapproval ratings some 36 points higher than his approval.

It is not surprising that a significant and growing number of Senate Republicans are choosing to retire, while a number of Republicans who have not been sycophants of Trump will face primary challenges from hard core Trump supporters.

Nor is it surprising that some GOP donors are declining to support Republicans who opposed certifying the results of the 2020 election, or that prominent Republicans are now attacking a growing number of major American corporations and Major League Baseball for opposing GOP voter suppression practices in Georgia and elsewhere.

Nationally, Democrats benefit from the hugely successful program by Biden to dramatically increase the numbers of vaccinations to defeat COVID-19, and the dramatic economic gains that have come from this and will increase further from the recently passed economic stimulus law. By contrast Republicans are trapped by the negative memories of COVID-19 under Trump, and the economic disaster that inevitably and predictably resulted from that.

As a matter of pure political communications, Trump and Trump Republicans in Congress are fundamentally communicating with only the Trump and Republican base, which comprises about 35 to 40 percent of all voters.

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By contrast Biden and Democrats are communicating with the liberal Democratic base and Democrats generally, plus liberal and moderate independent voters, plus a large majority of women and particularly suburban women, plus the huge majority of voters of all kinds who approve of the $1,400 stimulus checks, plus the 20 to 40 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who support most or much of the highly popular Biden stimulus law.

While it drives many conservatives and Trump Republicans crazy, and is not discussed widely enough in the media, the Biden stimulus was one of the most progressive laws passed in decades and — this is critical to understand — this progressive law is one of the most popular major laws in decades.

Republicans desperately need more prominent Republicans and conservatives like the late Rep. Jack Kemp (R-N.Y.), who applied true conservative principles to critical national and social benefit issues, and fewer like Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzCruz no longer wearing mask in Capitol The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Tax March - CDC in limbo on J&J vax verdict; Rep. Brady retiring Democrats brace for new 'defund the police' attacks MORE (R-Texas), the Trump wannabe who is the gold standard for alienating colleagues and in my view would be defeated in a rematch by former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, and Rep. Matt GaetzMatthew (Matt) GaetzOfficer wounded in raid that killed Breonna Taylor gets book deal McCarthy says Gaetz won't be punished unless charges filed Matt Gaetz makes six-figure ad buy targeting CNN amid sex trafficking allegations MORE (R-Fla.), who recently campaigned to defeat a true conservative, Rep. Liz CheneyElizabeth (Liz) Lynn CheneyTrump backs Wyoming GOP chair, citing Cheney censure The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Tax March - CDC in limbo on J&J vax verdict; Rep. Brady retiring Trump mocks Murkowski, Cheney election chances MORE (R-Wyo.).

Trump domination of Republicans today locks the GOP into unpopular policies and practices, internecine divisions within the Republican Party, alienation from many traditional GOP donors and major corporations, and emotional national divisions that Biden tries to heal and Trump embodies and escalates with every word he says, and every action he takes — which a majority of voters find destructive.

Budowsky was an aide to former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) and former Rep. Bill Alexander (D-Ark.), who was chief deputy majority whip of the House of Representatives.