How Trump’s second year can top his first

How Trump’s second year can top his first
© Getty / How I imagine President Trump when he clicked “send” on that tweet.

President Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump second-term plans remain a mystery to GOP Trump to hold outdoor rally in New Hampshire on Saturday Eighty-eight years of debt pieties MORE had a big job ahead of him when he took the oath of office in January 2017: reinvigorating Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaSunday shows preview: Lawmakers to address alarming spike in coronavirus cases History will judge America by how well we truly make Black lives matter What July 4 means for November 3 MORE’s slow-growing economy, rolling back Obama’s regulatory steamroller, improving national security, and “draining the swap.” The good news is Trump has made a lot of progress — a lot more than many expected. Now the question is whether his second year can top his first. 

It’s possible. Here’s how. 

Tax reform

Trump’s number one accomplishment is the biggest tax reform in 30 years — and given the corporate tax changes, one could argue that the new legislation is even more pro-growth than Ronald Reagan’s 1986 reform. It’s unlikely that any 2018 legislation would actually top tax reform, but it could be made better. 

ADVERTISEMENT

Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Memo: Unhappy voters could deliver political shocks beyond Trump Democratic senator will introduce bill mandating social distancing on flights after flying on packed plane Neil Young opposes use of his music at Trump Mount Rushmore event: 'I stand in solidarity with the Lakota Sioux' MORE (I-Vt.) is complaining that the personal income tax rate cuts are only temporary, not permanent. Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzGianforte halts in-person campaigning after wife, running mate attend event with Guilfoyle Trump administration grants funding extension for Texas testing sites Hillicon Valley: Democrats introduce bill banning federal government use of facial recognition tech | House lawmakers roll out legislation to establish national cyber director | Top federal IT official to step down MORE (R-Texas) agreed and has suggested that he and Sanders co-sponsor legislation that would make them permanent.

 

While Sanders has since tried to walk back his comments a little, making the change should be on Congress’s 2018 to-do list. 

Federal judges

Nominating Neil Gorsuch for the Supreme Court was another of Trump’s hard-to-top 2017 accomplishments, and one that, like tax reform, will likely live long past Trump’s presidency. But while the public and the media tend to focus on the Supreme Court, the president will nominate hundreds of lower-level federal judges. 

There are nearly 900 federal judgeships, including the appellate courts, and recent two-term presidents have been able to appoint around 350 people to fill those slots. However, there were about 100 more vacancies than usual when Trump entered office, which means a two-term Trump might be able to nominate between 450 and 500 federal judges — roughly half of all of them.

The Senate has confirmed 19 Article III (of the U.S. Constitution) judges, including Justice Gorsuch. Fifty more nominations are awaiting a Senate vote, but there are more than 140 slots open. Filling the vast majority of those open slots in 2018 would be a tall order — for both the president and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellTrump second-term plans remain a mystery to GOP Eighty-eight years of debt pieties Ernst says Trump should sign defense policy bill with military base renaming provision MORE (R-Ky.). But doing so would come close to topping 2017.

The regulatory rollback

Obama may not have been very successful at pushing his legislative agenda through Congress, but he was an overachiever when it came to pushing regulations.

Wayne Crews of the Washington-based Competitive Enterprise Institute calls Trump “the least regulatory president since Reagan.” He notes that in Barack Obama’s last year in office, 2016, he set a record for new pages of regulations in the Federal Register: 97,110. 

As of Oct. 1 — two-thirds through the year — the Trump administration had only added 45,678.

The importance of the Trump regulatory rollback cannot be overemphasized, because regulations come with a price. Crews estimates “the baseline for the U.S. federal regulatory burden has amounted to nearly $2 trillion annually. This amounts to a hidden tax of nearly $15,000 per household in a given year.”

Moreover, Neomi Rao of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs says the administration has taken three new regulatory actions vs. 67 deregulatory actions, for a 22-to-1 ratio. 

Both George W. Bush and Obama claimed they would search for and eliminate needless regulations, only Trump is actually doing it. And I get the sense he’s only getting started, which means 2018 could be a blowout year — for deregulation.

Improving national security

Trump’s recently released “National Security Strategy” set a new tone for U.S. foreign policy, one that is “based on outcomes, not ideology.” Spoken like a true businessman.

Several past U.S. presidents have put protocol over protection, diplomacy over decisiveness. Trump has broken that mold, and the diplomatic community doesn’t like it one little bit. 

Political cartoonist A.F. Branco captured the Obama foreign policy perfectly in 2015 with a cartoon that showed Obama and Secretary of State John KerryJohn Forbes KerrySusan Rice sees stock rise in Biden VP race Wesley Clark says Trump not serving in Vietnam 'might have been for the best' in light of Russian bounty reports Juan Williams: Time for boldness from Biden MORE bending over grabbing their ankles (in the spanking position) while Obama says, “This position shows our enemies we’re willing to work with them.”

Trump isn’t looking to make friends among foreign leaders, he’s looking for respect — and maybe fear. And given their outrage, he’s succeeding.

Draining the swamp

One of Trump’s signature campaign slogans was that he’d drain the Washington swamp. Not sure many would say he’s achieved that goal, but he’s certainly stirred it up — both domestically and internationally. 

Longstanding bureaucrats are resigning in droves, especially at the State Department and the Environmental Protection Agency — two of the deepest swamps. And several other agencies have been shaken, including the IRS and the Department of Health and Human Services.

There is every reason to believe that as the “deep state” — as it has come to be called — realizes that it cannot use the power of government to force its will on the public even more bureaucrats will leave in 2018, making for a leaner and less intrusive government. 

Merrill Matthews is a resident scholar with the Institute for Policy Innovation in Dallas, Texas. Follow him on Twitter @MerrillMatthews.