Webb: SCOTUS could be Democrats' nightmare on impeachment

Webb: SCOTUS could be Democrats' nightmare on impeachment
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On April 24, President TrumpDonald John TrumpPelosi arrives in Jordan with bipartisan congressional delegation Trump says his Doral resort will no longer host G-7 after backlash CNN's Anderson Cooper mocks WH press secretary over Fox News interview MORE tweeted that if “the partisan Dems ever tried to Impeach, I would first head to the U.S. Supreme Court. Not only are there are no ‘High Crimes and Misdemeanors,’ there are no Crimes by me at all.” 

Immediately, the anti-Trump crowd pounced. Noted constitutional attorney Alan DershowitzAlan Morton DershowitzHow this impeachment will play out Sunday shows - Guns dominate after Democratic debate Dershowitz: 'Too many politicians are being subject to criminal prosecution' MORE took the intellectual approach and provided readers in this very newspaper with an explanation of how the Supreme Court could be involved. The article, “Dershowitz: Supreme Court could overrule an unconstitutional impeachment,” is well worth the read. 

I’ll leave the legal analysis to Dershowitz and take the tactical political approach.

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First, to the Democrats who continue the push for impeachment, let’s look at the size of the base to which they are appealing. It is not a majority of the voting base for even the Democratic Party and independents who would likely favor the impeachment process and a complete disruption of government.

Pushing the narrative of presidential elections by popular vote versus the Electoral College sounds good in the headlines but is not effective in retail politics. More than likely this would drive the Trump base closer and independents closer to the right.

Democrats who already have a significantly fractured presidential field with more than two dozen candidates would have a hard time coalescing behind impeachment. As it stands, they do not have a candidate on a likely path to capture a national election.

Democrats run the additional risk of driving the fervent few who call for impeachment away from any candidate who will run against Trump in 2020. That means a loss of votes by those who stay home or vote for another candidate. Democrats could well commit their own form of voter suppression. 

An incumbent president already has a 5 to 6 point electoral advantage. Americans traditionally have voted on their personal circumstance. Remember Ronald Reagan who asked a simple question: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” 

Unless something major happens in the economy — I wouldn’t counsel the Democrats to bet on it — that kitchen table view will drive more voters than not.

Unemployment is at an all-time low of 3.6 percent. Black unemployment, Hispanic unemployment and female unemployment are at record lows. 

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports April jobless rates down over the year in 306 of 389 metropolitan areas. Nonfarm payroll jobs are up in 46 metropolitan areas and are unchanged in 343 metropolitan areas. Productivity has risen in 18 of 28 selective service providing industries in 2018. Democrats especially on the far left may push the fight for $15 minimum wage but wage gains across the country are real without any legislation. 

Of course, the Democrats will point to those not doing as well but they ignore an important factor. People often would rather stay the course than risk a change. 

It’s typical for the Democrats to focus on their urban strength in numbers for votes but that’s not enough today. The Trump election proved that Republicans can go to places the party has not and win a presidential election.

Republicans seized on this opportunity to be effective. The party could no longer ignore areas they have traditionally surrendered to Democrats. This is also not just about the presidential election. Local and state elections can drive votes up the ballot. 

Older voters matter and not in the traditional sense of high propensity voting. The fact is that Americans are living longer and have better quality of lives which means a block of voters that are more involved and more aware not just retired out of active society.

Younger voters are becoming more involved but they still have a lower percentage of participation, especially in key states. 

At this time of the year many younger voters are graduating high school or college and looking at their future. There has been a great deal of media coverage around student debt and the problem it creates for many. In spite of what some presidential candidates, congressional Democrats and others may tell you, not everyone is in favor of debt forgiveness. Somebody has to pay the tab and that is the taxpayer. Simply put, many Americans don’t believe in the unfairness. Many people prefer that we address education costs and lower them. 

Democrats, pundits and even Rep. Justin AmashJustin AmashAmash: Clinton's attack on Gabbard will 'drive many people into the arms' of Trump Overnight Defense — Presented by Boeing — House passes resolution rebuking Trump over Syria | Sparks fly at White House meeting on Syria | Dems say Trump called Pelosi a 'third-rate politician' | Trump, Graham trade jabs House passes resolution rebuking Trump over Syria pullout MORE (R-Mich.) can call for impeachment, but it’s a trap and it’s up to them to fall into it or not. If they do, Trump wins in 2020. 

Republicans need to seize on the small victories and build bigger victories electorally. 

Webb is host of “The David Webb Show” on SiriusXM Patriot 125, host of “Reality Check with David Webb” on Fox Nation, a Fox News contributor and a frequent television commentator. His column appears twice a month in The Hill.