Juan Williams: Trump's incredible shrinking GOP

They say a picture is worth a thousand words.

So let’s take a look at the front page of newspapers after Democrats take the stage in Miami next week for two primary debates.

I’m telling you those pictures will bring me tears.

For the first time in my life, the field of presidential candidates for a major political party looks like America — a racially diverse country.


The debates will include a Jewish democratic socialist (Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill's Campaign Report: Trump faces backlash after not committing to peaceful transition of power Bernie Sanders: 'This is an election between Donald Trump and democracy' The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump stokes fears over November election outcome MORE), an LGBTQ person (Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegBillionaire who donated to Trump in 2016 donates to Biden The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - GOP closes ranks to fill SCOTUS vacancy by November Buttigieg stands in as Pence for Harris's debate practice MORE), two African Americans (Cory BookerCory Anthony Booker3 reasons why Biden is misreading the politics of court packing Bipartisan praise pours in after Ginsburg's death DHS opens probe into allegations at Georgia ICE facility MORE and Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisHundreds of lawyers from nation's oldest African American sorority join effort to fight voter suppression Biden picks up endorsement from progressive climate group 350 Action 3 reasons why Biden is misreading the politics of court packing MORE), a Latino (Julián Castro), an Asian American (Andrew YangAndrew YangDoctor who allegedly assaulted Evelyn Yang arrested on federal charges The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden weighs in on police shootings | Who's moderating the debates | Trump trails in post-convention polls Buttigieg launches his own podcast MORE) and six women (Harris, Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenHillicon Valley: Subpoenas for Facebook, Google and Twitter on the cards | Wray rebuffs mail-in voting conspiracies | Reps. raise mass surveillance concerns On The Money: Anxious Democrats push for vote on COVID-19 aid | Pelosi, Mnuchin ready to restart talks | Weekly jobless claims increase | Senate treads close to shutdown deadline Democratic senators ask inspector general to investigate IRS use of location tracking service MORE, Amy KlobucharAmy Klobuchar3 reasons why Biden is misreading the politics of court packing Social media platforms put muscle into National Voter Registration Day Battle lines drawn on precedent in Supreme Court fight MORE, Kirsten GillibrandKirsten GillibrandSunday shows preview: Justice Ginsburg dies, sparking partisan battle over vacancy before election Suburban moms are going to decide the 2020 election Jon Stewart urges Congress to help veterans exposed to burn pits MORE, Marianne WilliamsonMarianne WilliamsonMarianne Williamson discusses speaking at People's Party Convention Fewer people watched opening night of Democratic convention compared to 2016 Marianne Williamson: Democratic convention 'like binge watching a Marriott commercial' MORE and Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardRepublicans call on DOJ to investigate Netflix over 'Cuties' film Hispanic Caucus campaign arm endorses slate of non-Hispanic candidates Gabbard says she 'was not invited to participate in any way' in Democratic convention MORE).

The GOP debate stage for their 2016 primaries featured one woman, one African American, one Indian American and two Hispanics. They were basically bookends for 12 white men who dominated that stage.

That shocking contrast on the debate stage is only a hint of the divide between the nation’s two big political parties going into the 2020 presidential race.

There’s a Grand Canyon between each party’s voters.

The Trump party suffers from a staggering lack of racial diversity and a dearth of young people. It also fares startlingly badly with educated people.

According to a report released this month by Public Opinion Strategies, based on NBC News–Wall Street Journal data, whites without college degrees now comprise an outright majority of all people who identify as Republicans.

In 2012, 48 percent of Republicans were non-college-educated whites. By 2018, with Trump as president, that figure had risen to 59 percent.

In 2012, 40 percent of Republicans were college-educated whites. In 2018, under Trump’s leadership, that number had fallen to just 29 percent.

In the 2018 midterms, Republicans lost white voters with a college education by 8 percentage points. They won among whites without a college education by 24 percentage points.

By the way, the report notes the current GOP is dominated by white men.

When Democrats won 40 House seats in the 2018 midterms, “women voted Democrat for Congress by a record margin and by a record gap compared to men.”

Republicans had a 4-point edge with men, but a 19-point deficit with women — a “net 23-point difference by gender,” as the report pointed out.

Once again, the gap comes down to white men without a college degree: 66 percent of them voted for the GOP in the 2018 midterms.

And then there is the age gap.

Last year, the Brookings Institution reported “the oldest Americans, those 50 and over, have consistently given Trump his highest approval ratings while young people aged 18-29 have consistently given him his lowest approval ratings.”

In fact, Quinnipiac University polling in May reported 70 percent disapproval for Trump among adults under the age of 35.

Only 8 percent of blacks, 28 percent of Hispanics and 27 percent of Asians identified as Republicans, according to a 2018 report from the Pew Research Center.

That means an overwhelming share of America’s racial minority voters are Democrats.

Recall that 2016 exit polls showed Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonFox News poll: Biden ahead of Trump in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Ohio Trump, Biden court Black business owners in final election sprint The power of incumbency: How Trump is using the Oval Office to win reelection MORE carrying nonwhite voters by a huge margin: 74 percent to Trump’s 21 percent. That’s likely to get worse for Trump next year.

The only middle ground left between the divided political parties is occupied by white men in swing states who voted for President Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

“While diverse in many ways, Obama-to-Trump voters are more likely to be white, working-class and to live in the Midwest. Because they voted for Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaObama warns of a 'decade of unfair, partisan gerrymandering' in call to look at down-ballot races Quinnipiac polls show Trump leading Biden in Texas, deadlocked race in Ohio Poll: Trump opens up 6-point lead over Biden in Iowa MORE in 2012 before supporting Trump in 2016, we can assume that their votes were not informed solely (or even strongly) by racial preference,” Johns Hopkins University Professor Stephen L. Morgan wrote for Bloomberg last week, based on research he recently conducted.


“On economic matters, Obama-to-Trump voters are centrists, except when it comes to free trade, which they view as a greater threat to jobs and wages than both Democratic and Republican party loyalists,” Morgan added.

Team Trump knows its only shot is to hold as many of those 6 million Obama-Trump voters as it can. That means speaking to their No. 1 issue — opposition to free trade.

In the Democratic field, the most outspoken opponent of free trade is Sanders.

“When people take a look at my record versus Vice President Biden's record, I helped lead the fight against NAFTA; he voted for NAFTA,” Sanders said on CNN in April. “I helped lead the fight against [trade agreements] with China; he voted for it. I strongly opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership; he supported it.”

Warren, too, has called for a renegotiation of NAFTA, although she blasted Trump’s combative use of tariffs to start a trade war.

Look for Trump and the Democrats to continue to talk tough on trade to appeal to those white Obama-Trump voters in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

If Trump can’t win the few middle-of-the road white men watching next week’s debates from the middle, he might be the last Republican president.

Juan Williams is an author, and a political analyst for Fox News Channel.