Why Donald Trump will win 2020
“I am concerned that if we do not impeach this president, then he will get reelected,” Democratic Representative Al Green of Texas said this spring, explaining his support for impeaching President Trump, long before the phone call with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that is at the heart of the current saga. Given all the accomplishments of the White House to date, it is easy to see why so many Democrats share that sentiment with Green.
Start with the state of the economy. Ronald Reagan, in his 1980 debate with Jimmy Carter, famously suggested people ask themselves before casting their votes, “Are you better off than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago?” He understood what political scientists and campaign operatives have known for decades. When it comes to deciding factors at the polls, perceived economic health stands, for many voters, at the top of the list.
Since Trump took office, more than 7 million new jobs have been created. Unemployment has fallen from 4.8 percent to 3.5 percent, with African American and Hispanic unemployment at historic lows. In sharp contrast to the Obama era, the labor force has been growing rather than shrinking. More Americans are now working than ever before. Even with the largest workforce in our history, there are more job openings looking for employees to fill them than prospective employees looking for jobs.
Given that no president running for reelection in the postwar era has been defeated with unemployment at less than 7.4 percent, the record of Trump on the jobs front alone sets him as a formidable candidate for reelection. However, job creation and labor market growth are not the only measures of economic success. Gross domestic product growth has risen from the 2 percent average of the Obama years to 2.5 percent, with two quarters of the Trump years significantly clocking in above 3 percent.
Moreover, Trump signed into law the Tax Cut and Jobs Act two years ago. Though Democrats derided it as a sop to the wealthy, a study showed that an average family of four earning the median annual income of $73,000 received a cut in federal income taxes of more than $2,000. To the coastal elites who populate the modern Democratic Party, that may not be much more than their annual coffee bill, but to average families in the heartland, that is almost a 60 percent drop in their annual federal income tax bills.
Since Trump was elected, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has soared by more than 50 percent to more than 28,000 points. The S&P 500 has climbed by more than 50 percent to more than 3,200 points. The Nasdaq composite has risen by more than 70 percent to more than 8,800 points. If you think those gains go only to elites, think again, as about 100 million people have 401(k)s and 42 million households have individual retirement accounts. They know who is putting more money in their wallets and who is making it easier to save for retirement and pay for college for their kids.
So the answer to the question posed by Reagan is simple and obvious. It is also most troubling to Democrats, who know they have nothing and no one to offer Americans to beat Trump. It is easy to see what is really going on here. Democrats have weaponized the impeachment process and are using it as another political tool against an opponent they cannot beat.
That is not why the Founders established impeachment. Indeed, they feared that impeachment could be used by one party in control of the House against a president of the other party. But the good news is that Americans see through this. The polls are swinging against Democrats, and this charade of an impeachment is simply benefiting the reelection campaign of Trump. The charade will then move to the Senate, where it will end with a failure to convict and an exoneration for Trump as it should.
Jenny Beth Martin is the honorary chairman of Tea Party Patriots Action.
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