SPONSORED:

Progressives' majority delusions politically costly

It’s been 20 years since the vice president turned a 50-50 partisan deadlock into a majority — and that condition didn’t last long. Within five months, Republican Jim Jeffords, deciding that the GOP was out of step with him ideologically, defected to the Democrats. If the Democrats aren’t careful, West Virginia’s moderate Democrat Sen. Joe ManchinJoe ManchinClose the avenues of foreign meddling Democrats see political winner in tax fight MSNBC's Joy Reid pans Manchin, Sinema as the 'no progress caucus' MORE could easily pull a “Jeffords,” leaving progressives in a spluttering rage — an impotent, spluttering rage, that is.

Ever since their narrow, Trump-assisted double win in the U.S. Senate runoffs in Georgia, national Democrats — and progressives in particular — have been drunk on power they don’t have.

Rather than taking a sober, realistic view, the progressive left has swooned over reports of their “total control” in Washington.

ADVERTISEMENT

Unfortunately, wishful thinking and bravado come to grief when faced with the uncompromising math that conclusively shows the Democrats with an extraordinarily tenuous partisan majority and certainly no ideological mandate.

Current Democratic majorities are remarkably similar to the Republican advantage after the 2000 election. Then the Senate was also knotted at 50-50. The GOP House advantage hovered around 10-12 seats, depending on the number of vacancies. The 2020 Democratic advantage is 221-211 with three vacancies (two GOP seats and one Democratic seat). All in all, remarkably similar.

But that only tells part of the story. The Democratic advantage in 2020 is much weaker. For one thing, the victories in Georgia were built on Trump’s petulance and self-indulgence far more than anything the Democrats did. Georgia voters hardly endorsed the progressive agenda. It’s also worth noting that Senate Democrats only have 48 seats — Vermont’s Bernie SandersBernie SandersHillicon Valley: Amazon wins union election — says 'our employees made the choice' On The Money: Biden .5T budget proposes major hike in social programs | GOP bashes border, policing provisions Overnight Defense: Biden proposes 3B defense budget | Criticism comes in from left and right | Pentagon moves toward new screening for extremists MORE and Maine’s Angus KingAngus KingGroups petition EPA to remove ethane and methane from list of compounds exempt from emissions limits Lack of cyber funds in Biden infrastructure plan raises eyebrows Five things to watch on Biden infrastructure plan MORE caucus with the Democrats but are unwilling to drop their independent status.

This limited, at best, support for progressive policies should not be a shock. After all, the Democratic electorate decisively rejected progressivism in the 2020 presidential primaries. Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden eyes bigger US role in global vaccination efforts Trump says GOP will take White House in 2024 in prepared speech Kemp: Pulling All-Star game out of Atlanta will hurt business owners of color MORE, the moderate choice, clearly thumped the progressive hero, Sanders, who only managed to gain a majority of primary votes in two states — his home state (with an anemic 50.6 percent) and with the microscopic cadre of Great Plains liberals in North Dakota. When the primary field narrowed to a one-on-one race between Biden and Sanders, Sanders lost every contest.

What holds together Democratic voters is not progressive ideology; it’s hatred for Trump. According to the Republican-oriented polling firm Echelon Insights, Democratic voters rate danger from “Trump supporters” as a concern (82 percent) second only to the coronavirus (87 percent).

ADVERTISEMENT

Yet, progressives like Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-CortezNew York City's suicide mission should alarm the entire nation Marjorie Taylor Greene rakes in over .2M in first quarter The strategy Biden needs to pass his infrastructure plan MORE (D-N.Y.) bluster about like the aftermath of the defeat of Alf Landon by Franklin Roosevelt. With every demand and threat against insufficiently “woke” Democratic office holders, the progressives increase the chances Biden will push too far to the left or that Manchin (or other Democrats) will either switch parties or go independent.

West Virginia troubles

If Manchin were to switch parties, like Jeffords did in 2001, there is nothing the jilted former majority could do about it — just like in 2001. When it comes to electing a Democrat to the U.S. Senate, in West Virginia there’s Manchin and nobody else. West Virginia is now a decisively Republican state, having elected Sen. Shelley Capito Moore by a large majority and plumping for Trump by nearly 40 points.

Any Democratic challenge to Manchin is pure delusion and he knows it. Manchin has faced primary opposition in every statewide race and has never won by less than 25 points. He has rebuffed progressive demands and will unquestionably block any attempt at eliminating the filibuster (rendering his vote far less powerful), not to mention other pipe dreams like statehood for Puerto Rico or D.C. — which would dilute the political power of West Virginia and other small states.

A lifelong Democrat, Manchin would likely find it difficult to switch parties. But political power is about survival, and Manchin has to know life as a Republican would make things much easier for him in West Virginia. He barely squeaked by in 2018, with less than 50 percent of the vote. As a Republican he would likely win by the wide margins that Gov. Jim Justice and colleague Capito Moore enjoy.

ADVERTISEMENT

And Manchin is not the only problem for progressive Democrats.

Sen. Krysten Sinema (D-Ariz.) has struck a more moderate path which makes sense in Arizona — a state whose move toward the Democratic Party is not necessarily permanent and may well be driven as much by the antics of a dysfunctional state GOP as by Democratic policy.

Montana and its Democratic Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterThe Hill's Morning Report - Biden's infrastructure plan triggers definition debate Lawmakers say fixing border crisis is Biden's job Five things to watch on Biden infrastructure plan MORE is another problem spot for progressives. Tester only just edged out underfunded Republican Matt Rosendale in 2018. And the Treasure State has turned more difficult for Democrats. Trump won in 2016 and in 2020. The GOP gained a clean sweep of statewide offices in 2020, including the re-election of Sen. Steve DainesSteven (Steve) David DainesTrump faces test of power with early endorsements OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Supreme Court declines to hear challenge to Obama marine monument designation | Interior reverses course on tribal ownership of portion of Missouri river | White House climate adviser meets with oil and gas companies Senate GOP pushes back on list of participants in oil and gas leasing forum MORE over popular Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockMontana governor signs bill banning sanctuary cities Progressives' majority delusions politically costly Overnight Health Care: CDC calls for schools to reopen with precautions | Cuomo faces rising scrutiny over COVID-19 nursing home deaths | Biden officials move to begin rescinding Medicaid work requirements MORE. National Democrats thought they had a winner and outspent Republicans by $19 million. Nevertheless, Daines won easily.

Just like the most fervent activists on the Right, the Progressive Left keeps forgetting they have to actually win races in order to get their platform passed. But then again, their agenda cannot win, so perhaps bluster and threats are the only strategy available. Too bad it’s a one-way ticket into the minority.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D. is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Dr. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.