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The coming year is poised to be pivotal for U.S.-Russia arms control talks.
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last major treaty constraining the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, is set to expire in early 2021.
That means President TrumpDonald TrumpClinton, Bush, Obama reflect on peaceful transition of power on Biden's Inauguration Day Arizona Republican's brothers say he is 'at least partially to blame' for Capitol violence Biden reverses Trump's freeze on .4 billion in funds MORE has to get serious in 2020 about engaging in arms control talks with Russia, supporters of renewing the treaty say.
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“I think next year’s critical,” said Sen. Bob Menendez

New START, which was negotiated by the Obama administration, caps the number of deployed nuclear warheads the United States and Russia can have at 1,550 apiece, among other provisions.
The treaty is set to expire on Feb. 5, 2021, but the deal includes the option to extend it for another five years after that.
Following the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which Trump withdrew from this year after years of alleged Russian violations, New START is the lone arms control agreement between Washington and Moscow. If New START dies, it would be the first time in five decades there is no treaty limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons.
Russian President Vladimir Putin

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“So far we have not received a reply to any of our proposals. Without the New START there will be nothing left in the world to contain the arms race,” he continued, adding there would be “nothing good” about an arms race.
Earlier this month, Trump was upbeat about the prospect of extending the agreement.
“With respect to nuclear weapons, I’ve spoken to President Putin and I’ve communicated with him,” Trump told reporters during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron

“I spoke to China about it,” Trump added. “During one of our trade negotiations, they were extremely excited about getting involved in that. So, some very good things can happen with respect to that.”
China, though, has repeatedly rejected the idea of joining the treaty talks.
Critics have accused the Trump administration of using China as a poison pill to kill the treaty.
“This insistence on bringing China into the negotiations is a red herring,” Sen. Chris Murphy

Murphy also questioned “how on earth" Trump is "going to run a reelection campaign and negotiate with Russia at the same time.”
“It’s really disturbing to think that we’re on a glide path to the expiration of the deal and a new arms race,” he said.
Underscoring Congress’s concerns about the future of New START, there have been several recent moves on the issue.
This year’s National Defense Authorization Act, which Trump signed into law on Friday, requires the administration to notify Congress 120 days ahead of time if it plans to withdraw from New START.
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“If New START is allowed to dissolve and no replacement agreement arises, the United States will find itself in an environment in which Russia’s nuclear arsenal is entirely unconstrained,” they wrote. “We believe the negative consequences for the United States of abandoning New START, when Russia is in compliance with the treaty and is seeking to extend it, would be grave in the short term and long term.”
Young and Van Hollen have also introduced a bill that would urge the extension of the treaty and require the director of national intelligence to report on the implications of allowing the agreement to expire without a replacement.
Young said he sees 2020 as “do or die” for New START, adding the administration needs to “get this done quickly.”
“If we have a robust verification and enforcement mechanism in place pertaining to Russia, the intelligence we gather from that apparatus will inform our efforts to modernize our nuclear arsenal,” he said. “Moreover, were we to authorize this agreement for another five years, this buys the United States of America additional time to in an informed way modernize our nuclear arsenal at a time when Russia is frankly out in front of us in terms of nuclear modernization.”
He also encouraged the administration officials in the new year to explain to Congress in both classified and unclassified settings “what actions they have taken in furtherance of their concerns as it relates to China and their nuclear weapons development.”
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Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch

“I think this is a work in progress,” Risch said. “Things have got to get better before we start moving forward in any way. Like their compliance with treaties.”
Sen. Deb Fischer

“We’ll have to see what the situation is,” she said. “Perhaps we just do a reauthorization. My main concern is that we continue to have these agreements, but that the Russians need to be active participants.”