Sweeping intel report sounds alarm on climate threats

Elsewhere, it notes that climate change is among the factors that will drive conflict in some regions.

“[M]any developing and fragile states — such as in Sub-Saharan Africa — face increasing strains from resource constraints and climate change, pitting different tribal and ethnic groups against one another and accentuating the separation of various identities,” the report states.

Climate change will also drive migration patterns, analysts say. From the report:

Internal migration — which will be at even higher levels than international migration — will be driven by rapid urbanization in the developing world and, in some countries toward the end of our time frame, by environmental factors and the impact of climate change. Climate-change-driven migration is likely to affect Africa and Asia far more than other continents because of dependence on agriculture in Africa and parts of Asia and because of greater susceptibility in Asia to extreme weather events.

It also lists the possibility of much more rapid climate change among eight potential “black swan” events that could have the greatest “disruptive” effect.

“Dramatic and unforeseen changes already are occurring at a faster rate than expected. Most scientists are not confident of being able to predict such events. Rapid changes in precipitation patterns –— such as monsoons in India and the rest of Asia — could sharply disrupt that region’s ability to feed its population,” the report states.

The overall report, the fifth such study issued since 1996, is a sweeping look at potential geopolitical changes and what’s driving them.

It projects that the U.S. will remain the world’s biggest power but that no nation will dominate as the “unipolar moment” ends.

“The US most likely will remain ‘first among equals’ among the other great powers in 2030 because of its preeminence across a range of power dimensions and legacies of its leadership role,” it states.

“By 2030, no country — whether the US, China, or any other large country — will 
be a hegemonic power,” the report finds, adding: 

“[W]ith the rapid rise of multiple other powers, the ‘unipolar moment’ is over and Pax Americana – the era of unrivalled American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945 – is fast winding down.”

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