For OPEC, don’t call it a comeback

The U.S. oil boom, Canadian oil sands and other growing supply sources outside the Middle East are sapping OPEC’s influence in world oil markets, according to a major new report on global energy trends.

But that won’t last.


“The role of OPEC countries in quenching the world’s thirst for oil is reduced temporarily over the next ten years by rising output from the United States, from oil sands in Canada, from deepwater production in Brazil and from natural gas liquids from all over the world,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its big annual World Energy Outlook released Tuesday.

“But, by the mid-2020s, non-OPEC production starts to fall back and countries in the Middle East provide most of the increase in global supply,” the report adds.

Most of the need for growing global energy supply in coming decades is centered in India, China and other Asian nations, while Middle East consumption also grows.

Yet OPEC’s comeback in meeting growing global demand doesn’t mean growing U.S. energy security, enabled by the nation’s fracking-enabled oil and natural gas surge, is at risk, IEA finds.

In fact, the U.S. is slated to soon become the world’s largest oil producer, and more broadly is becoming increasingly energy self-secure.

“Improved energy efficiency and a boom in unconventional oil and gas production help the United States to move steadily towards meeting almost all of its energy needs (in energy equivalent terms) from domestic resources by 2035,” it states.

“The United States is the world’s largest oil producer for much of the period to 2035,” the report states.

Overall, global oil supply is slated to rise from 89 million barrels per day in 2012 to 101 million barrels per day in 2035, according to IEA.

IEA is the energy security and forecasting organization for 28 member countries including the U.S., European nations, Japan, Canada and Australia.