Keystone pipeline supporters nearing filibuster-proof majority

Proponents of the Keystone XL pipeline are close, really close, to nailing down a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, and a GOP victory on Tuesday is what will likely get them there.

Republicans are optimistic that binding legislation approving the controversial pipeline can garner 60 votes in the Senate after Tuesday’s election.

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Right now, without any changes, Keystone supporters have a total of 57 votes in the Senate.

If the six easiest GOP pickups go its way, the party will gain the majority, and add another two votes to its Keystone tally, hitting 59.

After that, the GOP would only need a pickup in Colorado or Iowa to get to 60.

“It is definitely going to be a tough push, but we are confident we will have enough votes in the Senate when we take over,” a top Republican Senate aide told The Hill on Tuesday.

In fact, Republicans appear confident Colorado and Iowa will both go to them, putting the vote count at 61, the aide said.

On top of that, the Republican aide said, the party thinks there is a strong chance lawmakers like Sens. Chris CoonsChristopher (Chris) Andrew CoonsMedia and candidates should be ashamed that they don't talk about obesity Bill to return B in unredeemed bonds advances Grassley: Kavanaugh classmate didn't contact Senate panel MORE (D-Del.) and Tom CarperThomas (Tom) Richard CarperOvernight Energy: Trump tweets he's revoking California's tailpipe waiver | Move comes as Trump visits state | California prepares for court fight | Climate activist Greta Thunberg urges lawmakers to listen to scientists Media and candidates should be ashamed that they don't talk about obesity Senators call for more automakers to join emissions deal with California MORE (D-Del.) will back the oil sands pipeline this time around, noting election-year politics for earlier hesitancy.

The aide also said Republicans are “absolutely” confident when it comes to Sen. Bob CaseyRobert (Bob) Patrick CaseyEx-GOP congressman to lead group to protect Italian products from tariffs The Hill's Morning Report - Progressives, centrists clash in lively Democratic debate Democrats press Trump Treasury picks on donor disclosure guidelines MORE’s (D-Pa.) continued support of the pipeline if a binding vote comes forward.

In May, Casey was the only Democrat from a Republican-leaning state to back a bill that would have approved the $5.4 billion project, but a deal to bring the bill to the floor crumbled.

The push will undoubtedly be met with opposition and, despite the Republicans' strong chances of taking control of the Senate, greens are confident any legislation to approve the pipeline, or circumvent the president, will fail.

Jamie Henn, co-founder and communications director for 350.org, said climate activists won’t focus too much on trying to flip Democrats like Casey, instead applying all their pressure on Obama.

“If Obama approves the pipeline it would be a real blow to his legacy on climate, he has a lot to lose in terms of his outgoing reputation. He has been very clear he wants to have a strong legacy on climate change,” he said.

Henn added that greens are confident Obama will veto any pipeline bill that comes to his desk from Congress, and isn’t worried about a GOP takeover.

“No matter which way it goes it won’t be so bad,” Henn said. “We are itching to get back in the fight.”

Still, a Republican majority in both chambers bent on pushing through binding legislation that approves the Alberta-to-Gulf pipeline could cause headaches for the president.

On Tuesday, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said passing Keystone is the No. 2 priority for a Senate under the GOP control.

“I actually think the president will sign the bill on the Keystone pipeline because I think the pressure — he’s going to be boxed in on that, and I think it’s going to happen,” Priebus said Tuesday on MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown.”

Here’s a breakdown of the states Keystone supporters need to flip in order to get to the filibuster-proof 60 votes in the Senate, applying pressure on President Obama.


TIER 1: The six easiest pickups for GOP

Alaska
Needed for GOP majority, but will not change pipeline vote count. Recent polling puts Republican Dan Sullivan ahead of Sen. Mark BegichMark Peter BegichAlaska political mess has legislators divided over meeting place Former GOP chairman Royce joins lobbying shop Lobbying world MORE (D), but both parties are cautious as the state is tough to poll.

Arkansas
Rep. Tom CottonThomas (Tom) Bryant Cotton2020 Democrats raise alarm about China's intellectual property theft Bolton returns to political group after exiting administration Meadows, Cotton introduce bill to prevent district judges from blocking federal policy changes MORE defeated Sen. Mark PryorMark Lunsford PryorMedicaid rollback looms for GOP senators in 2020 Cotton pitches anti-Democrat message to SC delegation Ex-Sen. Kay Hagan joins lobby firm MORE (D). Will not change pipeline vote count.

Louisiana
Will not change pipeline vote count. The race is going to a December runoff.

Montana
Rep. Steve Daines (R) won. Will not change pipeline vote count.

South Dakota
Gov. Mike Rounds (R) won, putting Keystone vote count at 58.

West Virginia
Republican Rep. Shelley Moore CapitoShelley Wellons Moore CapitoThis week: House jump-starts effort to prevent shutdown Congress set to ignore Trump's wall request in stopgap measure America is in desperate need of infrastructure investment: Senate highway bill a step in the right direction MORE won, putting Keystone vote count at 59.


TIER 2: Only one more

If Republicans pick up all of the previous six seats, they will just need one more from this tier to reach 60 — two to get to 61, which provides a bit of a cushion for any future Keystone vote.

Colorado
Rep. Cory GardnerCory Scott Gardner The 13 Republicans needed to pass gun-control legislation Bolton returns to political group after exiting administration The Hill's Morning Report — Trump's hurricane forecast controversy won't go away MORE (R) won, putting the Keystone vote count at 60.

Iowa
Republican Joni Ernst won, putting Keystone vote count at 61.

Michigan
If GOP wins pipeline supporters gain one vote. Here, however, Democrat Rep. Gary Peters is a big favorite. The likelihood of Keystone supporters winning here is slim.


TIER 3: The outlier

Kansas
Keystone supporters could lose one vote if Independent Greg Orman, who is running a tough race against Republican Sen. Pat RobertsCharles (Pat) Patrick RobertsInternal poll shows Kobach trailing Democrat in Kansas Senate race Here are the lawmakers who aren't seeking reelection in 2020 Hillicon Valley: Lawmakers ramp up Silicon Valley antitrust probe | Treasury sanctions North Korean cyber groups | Thiel to host Kobach fundraiser MORE, wins. Orman has yet to say whether he supports the pipeline.

In an interview with The Associated Press earlier this month, Orman said he would support Keystone “if it truly has no net environmental impact,” hinting that he is likely to vote against the oil sands project.