Chances decrease of El Niño developing

The chances of the El Niño weather pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean this winter are decreasing, and now stand at 58 percent.

The probability of El Niño had been as high as 80 percent in the spring, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.


Californians had high hopes for El Niño to bring a wet, warm winter to the state, which saw the worst drought on record this summer, the Chronicle said.

The latest update on the chances came Thursday from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

The pattern can affect weather globally, depending on its strength. Its chances have steadily decreased in recent months.

If El Niño doesn’t come or is weak, the West Coast still could get significant rain this winter, though forecasters will look to other pattern phenomena like the North Pacific Oscillation.

But other patterns are not as easy to predict early, the Chronicle said.