Can Mary Landrieu get to 60 votes on Keystone pipeline?

 

Embattled Sen. Mary LandrieuMary Loretta LandrieuBottom line A decade of making a difference: Senate Caucus on Foster Youth Congress needs to work to combat the poverty, abuse and neglect issues that children face MORE (D-La.) and other supporters of building the Keystone XL pipeline appear to be one vote short of the 60 they need to win a key vote on the project on Tuesday.

Landrieu has 59 votes backing legislation to approve the project, and Sens. Jay RockefellerJohn (Jay) Davison RockefellerBottom Line World Health Day: It's time to fight preventable disease Lobbying World MORE (D-W.Va.) and Angus KingAngus KingShakespeare Theatre Company goes virtual for 'Will on the Hill...or Won't They?' On The Trail: How Nancy Pelosi could improbably become president Angus King: Ending election security briefings 'looks like a pre-cover-up' MORE (I-Maine) appear to be her top targets to get to 60.

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The effort is crucial to Landrieu because of her runoff election in December against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who also backs the pipeline. Landrieu is seen as a decided underdog in the race, and Senate Democrats have scheduled Tuesday’s vote to try to give her a boost.

If she fails, it could be a death knell for her reelection hopes.

Supporters of Keystone had been targeting Sen. Carl LevinCarl Milton LevinMichigan to pay 0M to victims of Flint water crisis Unintended consequences of killing the filibuster Inspector general independence must be a bipartisan priority in 2020 MORE (D-Mich.), but a spokesman for the senator told The Hill on Monday that he would vote no. 

Both sides are furiously working the phones in advance of Tuesday evening’s vote.

Proponents are “burning up the phone lines and e-mails trying to find that vote to support the procedural move,” Senate Majority Whip Dick DurbinRichard (Dick) Joseph DurbinMcConnell focuses on confirming judicial nominees with COVID-19 talks stalled Senate Republicans signal openness to working with Biden Top GOP senator calls for Biden to release list of possible Supreme Court picks MORE (D-Ill.) said Sunday.

Green groups are pushing right back, rallying outside of Landrieu's Washington, D.C. home on Monday morning. A small group of activists led by 350.org draped an inflatable pipeline across Landrieu's front yard. 

Every Republican in the chamber is expected to vote yes, meaning 15 Democrats must support it to reach the threshold of 60, which would cut off a filibuster by opponents.

Ten Democrats have joined Landrieu in co-sponsoring the legislation approving the pipeline: Sens. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinBiden promises Democratic senators help in battleground states Senate leaders quash talk of rank-and-file COVID-19 deal OVERNIGHT ENERGY: House Democrats tee up vote on climate-focused energy bill next week | EPA reappoints controversial leader to air quality advisory committee | Coronavirus creates delay in Pentagon research for alternative to 'forever chemicals' MORE (W.Va.), Kay HaganKay Ruthven HaganThe Hill's Campaign Report: Democratic Unity Taskforce unveils party platform recommendations Democrats awash with cash in battle for Senate The Hill's Campaign Report: Trump's job approval erodes among groups that powered his 2016 victory MORE (N.C.), Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampCentrists, progressives rally around Harris pick for VP 70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents Susan Collins set to play pivotal role in impeachment drama MORE (N.D.), Mark PryorMark Lunsford PryorCoronavirus poses risks for Trump in 2020 Tom Cotton's only Democratic rival quits race in Arkansas Medicaid rollback looms for GOP senators in 2020 MORE (Ark.), Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillDemocratic-linked group runs ads in Kansas GOP Senate primary Trump mocked for low attendance at rally Missouri county issues travel advisory for Lake of the Ozarks after Memorial Day parties MORE (Mo.), Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterPence seeks to boost Daines in critical Montana Senate race This World Suicide Prevention Day, let's recommit to protecting the lives of our veterans Filibuster fight looms if Democrats retake Senate MORE (Mont.), Mark WarnerMark Robert WarnerIntelligence chief says Congress will get some in-person election security briefings Overnight Defense: Trump hosts Israel, UAE, Bahrain for historic signing l Air Force reveals it secretly built and flew new fighter jet l Coronavirus creates delay in Pentagon research for alternative to 'forever chemicals' House approves bill to secure internet-connected federal devices against cyber threats MORE (Va.), Mark BegichMark Peter BegichAlaska group backing independent candidate appears linked to Democrats Sullivan wins Alaska Senate GOP primary Alaska political mess has legislators divided over meeting place MORE (Alaska), Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyEx-Sen. Joe Donnelly endorses Biden Lobbying world 70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents MORE (Ind.) and John Walsh (Mont.).

That leaves supporters needing to win four more votes to reach 60.

Here is a look at the key votes:


UNDECIDED

Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.)

Rockefeller is retiring and represents a pro-coal state where Keystone is popular. His office hasn’t indicated which way the senator will vote. 

Sen. Angus King (I-Maine)


A possible fence-sitter, King is “leaning no,” his spokesman said last week. That wiggle room leaves supporters with hope they might still be able to win his vote.

 

KEY DEM YES VOTES

Sen. Bob CaseyRobert (Bob) Patrick CaseySecond GOP senator to quarantine after exposure to coronavirus GAO report finds brokers offered false info on coverage for pre-existing conditions Catholic group launches .7M campaign against Biden targeting swing-state voters MORE (Penn.)

Casey supported the pipeline earlier this year, and was one of the first to get behind Landrieu’s push last week. He will vote “yes” to approve Keystone on Tuesday.

Sen. Tom CarperThomas (Tom) Richard CarperDemocrat asks for probe of EPA's use of politically appointed lawyers Overnight Energy: Study links coronavirus mortality to air pollution exposure | Low-income, minority households pay more for utilities: report OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Democrats push resolution to battle climate change, sluggish economy and racial injustice | Senators reach compromise on greenhouse gas amendment stalling energy bill | Trump courts Florida voters with offshore drilling moratorium MORE (Del.)

Will vote “yes,” in favor of the pipeline on Tuesday. He said “enough already” on Thursday. “Let's clear the decks” and start talking about other issues, Carper said.

Green groups like 350.org are now pressuring Carper to vote against the Keystone pipeline.

Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetOVERNIGHT ENERGY: House Democrats tee up vote on climate-focused energy bill next week | EPA reappoints controversial leader to air quality advisory committee | Coronavirus creates delay in Pentagon research for alternative to 'forever chemicals' Senate Democrats demand White House fire controversial head of public lands agency Next crisis, keep people working and give them raises MORE (Colo.)

Bennet brought the vote total in favor of Keystone to 59 on Friday when Landrieu told reporters that Bennet “feels very strongly” about Keystone, and that he would support the bill. 

Senate Democrats have decided to hold the Keystone vote as part of a bid to help Landrieu in her runoff election for the Senate next month against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.).

 

KEY DEM NO VOTES

Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonDemocrats sound alarm on possible election chaos Trump, facing trouble in Florida, goes all in NASA names DC headquarters after agency's first Black female engineer Mary W. Jackson MORE (Fla.)

Nelson, who was courted by Sen. John HoevenJohn Henry HoevenDavis: The Hall of Shame for GOP senators who remain silent on Donald Trump Bottom line Bipartisan senators seek funding for pork producers forced to euthanize livestock MORE (R-N.D.) and Landrieu, will vote “no” on the Keystone bill, his spokesman said Friday. Nelson supports the pipeline but only with a ban on exporting the oil it transports.

Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.)

The freshman senator, while a long-shot, was on the list of possible flips for Keystone supporters until he publicly came out against the pipeline over the weekend.

Booker said he will vote no on Tuesday when asked by a Twitter follower. “I am a firm NO against the KXL,” he tweeted to another.

Sen. Chris CoonsChristopher (Chris) Andrew CoonsBiden promises Democratic senators help in battleground states Shakespeare Theatre Company goes virtual for 'Will on the Hill...or Won't They?' The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by The Air Line Pilots Association - Pence lauds Harris as 'experienced debater'; Trump, Biden diverge over debate prep MORE (Del.) 

Coons also said he would vote against approving the project. On Thursday, Coons’s office said the senator is frustrated with the Keystone review but will vote against the authorization bill next week because it isn't Congress’ role to issue construction permits.

Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharEPA delivers win for ethanol industry angered by waivers to refiners It's time for newspapers to stop endorsing presidential candidates Biden marks anniversary of the Violence Against Women Act, knocks Trump and McConnell MORE (Minn.)

Klobuchar could have been a hopeful flip, but her office was quick to say she would not be voting in favor of the pipeline. Klobuchar has not voted yes before and is not a yes now, according to her spokeswoman.

Sen. Carl Levin (Mich.)

Levin had increasingly been seen as a possible yes vote, but he told reporters on Monday that he would vote no. A spokesman for his office confrmed his no vote to The Hill. 

"I'm voting against the pipeline because it bypasses the environmental impact statement, which should not be bypassed," Levin said, according to the Washington Examiner. 

 

This story was updated at 4:47 p.m.