OVERNIGHT MONEY: About that $38 billion

WHAT ELSE TO WATCH FOR:

State of the Union, redux: On the day after President Obama revamped his State of the Union (at least as far as deficit reduction is concerned), Rep. Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanThree-way clash set to dominate Democratic debate Krystal Ball touts Sanders odds in Texas Republicans pour cold water on Trump's term limit idea MORE (R-Wis.) is set to give a Thursday rebuttal of sorts — just as he did after the State of the Union. 

The House Budget Committee chairman — who was visibly bothered on Wednesday after being invited to Obama’s speech only to hear his budget plan picked apart — is scheduled to give this response speech at Washington's Hyatt Regency. On Wednesday, Ryan's office sent around a YouTube clip from January 2010, where Obama praised Ryan for being courageous enough to propose Medicare vouchers, something Obama slammed as a betrayal of the elderly in the new speech.

Muni Madness: Welcome to Washington, Scott Walker. 

The Wisconsin governor will almost certainly be the primary attraction tomorrow, with the House Oversight Committee set to explore whether there is a pending crisis for state and local government debt — and if so, just how big it might be. 

Some market analysts have suggested that big budget gaps could lead to an increase in defaults on municipal bonds, long seen as a sleepier section of the financial market. And Republicans have been quick to point out that the Bailout Era is over — so if a state or local government struggles to meet obligations, they won't get any help from the federal government. 

Peter Shumlin, Vermont’s Democratic governor, is also expected to testify Thursday, presumably as something of a counterpoint to Walker. 

Dodd-Frank dissection: The House Financial Services Committee will cast its gaze upon the new landscape created by Dodd-Frank in a pair of hearings tomorrow. 

In the morning, the oversight subcommittee will discuss the new Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which gathers the top financial regulators together to discuss broad issues affecting the nation's financial system — a veritable Justice League of financial regulation.

Republicans will likely use the hearing to detail concerns with the new entity — including the transparency of its operations, whether its work will impede the competitiveness of American companies and how the various agencies will be able to coordinate.

The committee’s capital markets subcommittee is slated to follow that up with an afternoon hearing delving into new rules on risk retention brought on by Dodd-Frank. Under rules proposed by regulators in March, financial firms would have to retain 5 percent of the risk on asset-backed securities unless they are filled up with mortgages where lenders provided at least a 20 percent down payment or if they were government-backed. The goal of the rules are to ensure firms keep "skin in the game" when creating and selling securities.

Tax day’s a comin’: Americans for Tax Reform's Grover Norquist and a horde of lawmakers are set to hold a news conference Thursday, one day ahead of the traditional tax filing deadline.

The top Republicans on the tax-writing committees — Sen. Orrin HatchOrrin Grant HatchTrump to award racing legend Roger Penske with Presidential Medal of Freedom Trump awards Presidential Medal of Freedom to economist, former Reagan adviser Arthur Laffer Second ex-Senate staffer charged in aiding doxxing of GOP senators MORE (R-Utah) and Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.) — are expected to join Norquist, as are Sen. Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulDefense bill talks set to start amid wall fight Senate confirms two Treasury nominees over Democratic objections Liz Cheney calls for 'proportional military response' against Iran MORE (R-Ky.) and Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Tom Price (R-Ga.), Cathy McMorris RodgersCathy McMorris RodgersSocial determinants of health — health care isn't just bugs and bacteria Lawmakers deride FTC settlement as weak on Facebook Overnight Energy: Fight over fuel standards intensifies | Democrats grill Trump officials over rule rollback | California official blasts EPA chief over broken talks | Former EPA official says Wheeler lied to Congress MORE (R-Wash.) and Kevin BradyKevin Patrick BradyLobbying groups ask Congress for help on Trump tariffs Republicans pour cold water on Trump's term limit idea Republicans' rendezvous with reality — their plan is to cut Social Security MORE (R-Texas). 

Economic indicators:

— The Labor Department is slated to release initial jobless claims data in the morning that could show the third straight week of declines, a good sign for the job market. 

BREAKING WEDNESDAY:

Back to Obama: In some of the more detailed analysis of the Obama “vision,” Bob Bixby, one of Washington's foremost budget experts and the leader of the Concord Coalition, has pointed out what he calls key holes in the president’s proposal for a soft spending cap and Medicare alterations. 

The president, in addition to his $4 trillion worth of spending cuts and tax increases, also called Wednesday for a “debt fail-safe trigger” that would require across-the-board spending cuts and tax expenditure reductions.

But Bixby says that “while triggers for across-the-board cuts can be important for enforcing budget agreements, policymakers need to be careful to not exempt large portions of the budget from cuts.”

“They also need to be mindful that simply setting spending targets, without specifying how to get there, is a recipe for deficit reductions on paper without the political consensus on the policies necessary to achieve them,” Bixby added. 

Help me help you: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has been reaching out to top Wall Street brass — the Jamie Dimons of the world — to see if they’ll talk to rank-and-file Republicans behind closed doors about not messing around with raising the debt ceiling, the Financial Times reports.

Breaking: Our Peter Schroeder breaks down the tongue-lashing Goldman Sachs got from a Senate panel for disgraceful and misleading tactics with regards to the financial crisis. 

WHAT YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED:

On the Money’s Wednesday:

John BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerBoehner reveals portrait done by George W. Bush Meadows to be replaced by Biggs as Freedom Caucus leader Scaramucci compares Trump to Jonestown cult leader: 'It's like a hostage crisis inside the White House' MORE, Paul Ryan BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerBoehner reveals portrait done by George W. Bush Meadows to be replaced by Biggs as Freedom Caucus leader Scaramucci compares Trump to Jonestown cult leader: 'It's like a hostage crisis inside the White House' MORE-ryan-slam-obama-speech" mce_href="http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/155857-boehner-ryan-slam-obama-speech">heap scorn on the Obama speech …

But Kent Conrad gives the president some props

Heritage Foundation heartily gets behind Ryan budget …

While House Dems roll out their alternative.

Democrats on GOP’s debt limit stance: “Kamikaze politics” seeking out an “economic Chernobyl.”

The president might have gotten behind individual tax reform, but the devil’s in the details.

The Fed says some large mortgage lenders owe homeowners …

And that the economy’s still growing slowly

House Oversight takes on federally employed tax delinquents. 

Tech groups back away from their Durbin amendment stance.

Max BaucusMax Sieben BaucusBottom line Overnight Defense: McCain honored in Capitol ceremony | Mattis extends border deployment | Trump to embark on four-country trip after midterms Congress gives McCain the highest honor MORE, Chuck GrassleyCharles (Chuck) Ernest GrassleyGOP signals unease with Barr's gun plan NRA says Trump administration memo a 'non-starter' Barr fails to persuade Cruz on expanded background checks MORE urge caution on linking tax collection, passports.

A hoax news release targets General Electric.

Mortgage applications drop.

And retails sales increase

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