OVERNIGHT MONEY: Two-week warning


A Five Guys presentation…: The still-active members of the Gang of Six are set to formally present their framework to roughly 50 senators on Tuesday morning, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) told reporters at the Capitol on Monday.

As usual, the Senate Budget Committee chairman was reluctant to go too deeply into details of the presentation, and stressed that no public unveiling of the plan was currently scheduled. But Conrad did say that the plan would reduce deficits by either $3.6 trillion or $3.7 trillion over a decade, adding that it would include targets for tax reform, given time constraints.

The North Dakota Democrat also said the plan “really would get the deficit under control, the debt under control. And with real numbers. No baseline games.”

Dissecting Dodd-Frank: It's been a year now, and we're still talking about Dodd-Frank.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness will ring in that first birthday for the financial reform law by talking about its shortcomings. The business lobby has blasted Dodd-Frank and other major laws for burying the private sector in red tape, with Tuesday’s discussion expected to touch on ways to reform the reform going forward. Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), who has led the charge to rein in new rules on financial derivatives from his perch as chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, is among those scheduled to weigh in.

Also getting in on the Dodd-Frank festivities: The Independent Community Bankers of America, who have an event of their own tomorrow. Camden Fine, ICBA’s president and CEO, is set to lead a teleconference to discuss how community banks are dealing with the financial overhaul and what big issues remain.

Lawmakers on both sides of the Dodd-Frank divide have repeatedly cited community banks as potential victims caught in the law’s crossfire. With that in mind, it will be interesting to see how the bankers themselves feel they’ve made out over the last year.

Good timing: The Senate Banking Committee is slated to talk consumer protection on Tuesday, a day after Obama nominated his pick to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Various members of the private sector, including the president of the Center for Responsible Lending, will be on hand to chat about the matter.

Briefing room: A trio of freshman Republicans  — Sen. Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulOn The Money: House votes to avert shutdown, fund government through November | Judge blocks California law requiring Trump tax returns | Senate panel approves three spending bills Paul objection snags confirmation of former McConnell staffer Defense bill talks set to start amid wall fight MORE of Kentucky and Reps. Scott RigellEdward (Scott) Scott RigellGOP rushes to embrace Trump GOP lawmaker appears in Gary Johnson ad Some in GOP say Trump has gone too far MORE of Virginia and Dan Webster of Florida — are expected to jump on a debt-limit conference call brought to you by the Conservative Emergency Task Force.

Economic indicators:

-- The Commerce Department will release data on housing starts and building permits for June. Starts are a measure of the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month. Building permits are permits taken out in order to allow excavation. An increase in building permits and starts usually occurs a few months after a reduction in mortgage rates.

-- The Labor Department will release second-quarter figures of weekly earnings of wage and salary for workers.


"Back in Black": Sen. Tom CoburnThomas (Tom) Allen CoburnThe Hill's Morning Report — Presented by PhRMA — Worries grow about political violence as midterms approach President Trump’s war on federal waste American patients face too many hurdles in regard to health-care access MORE’s (R-Okla.) new deficit reduction plan not only cuts a whopping $9 trillion over a decade – but, at 600-plus pages, it’s also longer than many novels. (Not quite War and Peace levels, but you catch the drift.) So it probably shouldn’t be surprising that Coburn’s road map offers plenty of topics for discussion.

For one thing, the Oklahoma Republican seeks to phase out the dollar bill, at an estimated savings of just over $2 billion over a decade. Coburn also scraps some $1 trillion worth of tax credits and deductions, taking chunks both big (reforming the mortgage interest deduction to the tune of $187 billion) and small (ending a $4 million break for Eskimo whaling captains) out of the code.

In perhaps the least surprising response of the day, Grover Norquist’s Americans for Tax Reform slammed the Coburn plan, noting it does not seek to exchange tax expenditures for lower tax rates.

Conrad’s take: The Budget chairman complimented his Gang of Six mate for taking on defense spending and for his revenue proposals. But, ultimately, Conrad thought $9 trillion was (several) steps too far.

“It requires you to make more draconian changes than you need to make,” Conrad said Monday.

America, unimpressed:
Roughly half of American adults have at least a fair amount of confidence in Obama to do the right thing in the debt ceiling talks, according to a new Pew Research Center/Washington Post BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerBoehner reveals portrait done by George W. Bush Meadows to be replaced by Biggs as Freedom Caucus leader Scaramucci compares Trump to Jonestown cult leader: 'It's like a hostage crisis inside the White House' MORE-eric-cantor-nancy-pelosi-harry-reid-mitch-mcconnell-tea-party" href="http://pewresearch.org/pubs/2063/president-obama-debt-ceiling-john-boehner-eric-cantor-nancy-pelosi-harry-reid-mitch-mcconnell-tea-party">poll. But the public was not quite as sure of congressional leaders, with confidence levels ranging from a quarter (Reid, House Majority Leader Eric CantorEric Ivan CantorEmbattled Juul seeks allies in Washington GOP faces tough battle to become 'party of health care' 737 crisis tests Boeing's clout in Washington MORE, R-Va.) to a third (House Speaker John BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerBoehner reveals portrait done by George W. Bush Meadows to be replaced by Biggs as Freedom Caucus leader Scaramucci compares Trump to Jonestown cult leader: 'It's like a hostage crisis inside the White House' MORE, R-Ohio).

In fact, less than half of respondents from their own party backed Cantor, Reid and McConnell. And none of the officials garnered majority support from independents.


On the Money’s Monday:

-- Fitch says a credit downgrade could come as soon as Aug. 4…

-- While Moody’s calls for getting rid of the debt ceiling altogether.

-- Michele BachmannMichele Marie BachmannKlobuchar urges CNN town hall audience: 'That's when you guys are supposed to cheer, OK?' Michele Bachmann praises Trump: Americans will 'never see a more godly, biblical president' Will Biden lead a 'return to normalcy' in 2020? MORE signs on to “Cut, Cap and Balance,” adds extra health care repeal condition.

-- Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenWarren: Congress is 'complicit' with Trump 'by failing to act' Sanders to join teachers, auto workers striking in Midwest Pelosi wants to change law to allow a sitting president to be indicted MORE’s mulling over a Senate bid.

-- Norquist, other conservatives lobby GOP leaders on taxes.

-- Club for Growth stands firmly behind “Cut, Cap and Balance.”

-- Obama’s former national security adviser joins lobbying board.

-- Poll finds Obama with the best of some middling-to-bad approval ratings on the debt ceiling.

-- And builder confidence improves, but still subpar.

Feedback, tips to bbecker@thehill.com.