Business

Goldman Sachs: GOP tax bill’s boost to economy ‘minimal’ after 2020

by Rebecca Savransky - 12/04/17 1:52 PM ET

Analysts on Goldman Sachs’s U.S. economic analysis team said the Senate GOP tax bill’s impact on the economy beyond 2020 would be “minimal” at best.

“We have increased our estimate of the growth effects of the legislation slightly, to around 0.3 [percentage points] in 2018 and 2019,” Alec Phillips and Blake Taylor wrote in a note to clients on Monday, according to Business Insider.

“This reflects the slightly larger amount of tax cuts in the Senate plan following revisions, and our expectations regarding the eventual compromise.”

{mosads}”We note that the effect in 2020 and beyond looks minimal and could actually be slightly negative,” the note added.

The Senate early Saturday passed legislation to overhaul the tax code, setting up a push to negotiate a final bill with the House.

The bill would lower tax rates for individuals through 2025 and permanently cut the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent. The bill’s tax cuts for individuals are temporary in order to comply with budget rules that the measure can’t add to the deficit after 10 years.

The measure would also repeal ObamaCare’s individual mandate.

The House and Senate are expected to work out the differences between their tax bills in a conference committee, with the goal of getting a bill to President Trump’s desk by Christmas.

Goldman Sachs said last month that the GOP tax-reform plan would only increase economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points over the next two years.

Some Republicans have argued the bill would boost gross domestic product growth by 0.4 percentage points a year.

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