JPMorgan creates 'Volfefe index' to measure Trump tweets' impact on market

JPMorgan has created an index to track and quantify the impact President TrumpDonald TrumpNorth Carolina Senate passes trio of election measures 14 Republicans vote against making Juneteenth a federal holiday Border state governors rebel against Biden's immigration chaos MORE’s tweets have on the financial market.

CNBC reports that the "Volfefe Index" — a reference to Trump’s viral "covfefe" tweet — aims to explain and measure how Trump’s tweets impact volatility in U.S. interest rates.

Of the more than 4,000 non-retweets from Trump’s personal Twitter account during market hours from the start of 2018 to now, 146 have reportedly moved the market.


Tweets from Trump have had an impact on the market, especially in regard to trade and financial policy, when they contain keywords such as “China,” “billion” and “products.”

“We find strong evidence that tweets have increasingly moved U.S. rates markets immediately after publication,” the report states.

The index found that those posts from Trump are less likely to be liked or retweeted by Twitter users, according to CNBC.

Trump last month frequently used his Twitter account to lambast the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell, and push for lower interest rates that he feels will further stimulate the economy.

“This makes rough sense as much of the president’s tweets have been focused on the Federal Reserve, and as trade tensions are broadly seen as, first and foremost, impactful on near-term economic performance and, likewise, the Fed’s reaction to such developments,” the report found. 

Trump has also used his account to knock China over the ongoing trade war between the two countries. He has remained adamant that the battle would cost China jobs and money over the long haul while defending his tariff policy.

A majority of Trump’s market-impacting tweets come between noon and 2 p.m., with a 1 p.m. tweet about three times as likely to arrive at any other hour of the afternoon or evening, according to JPMorgan’s index.

Since Trump was elected in November 2016, he has averaged more than 10 tweets a day, with more than 10,000 taking place since his 2017 inauguration.

The Hill has reached out to JPMorgan.