Survey: Two-thirds of economists say manufacturing is in recession

Survey: Two-thirds of economists say manufacturing is in recession
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Roughly two-thirds of economists say the U.S. manufacturing sector is in recession, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll.

The survey found that 65.3 percent of private sector forecasters said manufacturing was in a recession, usually defined by the sector as two consecutive quarters of contraction.


Federal Reserve figures from the summer showed similar contraction at factories, while recent manufacturing data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) has shown two months of declines.

Economists surveyed by the Journal also said they see the overall economy slowing heading into 2020.

Growth in the third quarter of the year, which ended Sept. 30, slowed to an annual rate of 1.82 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed. The Commerce Department said the economy expanded at a 2 percent pace in the second quarter.

Economists in the Journal poll forecast that rate will slow further to 1.77 percent during the last three months of 2019.

Those figures are well below the 3 percent growth President TrumpDonald TrumpNew Capitol Police chief to take over Friday Overnight Health Care: Biden officials says no change to masking guidance right now | Missouri Supreme Court rules in favor of Medicaid expansion | Mississippi's attorney general asks Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade Michael Wolff and the art of monetizing gossip MORE promised during the 2016 campaign.

Among the main concerns among economists is uncertainty in trade relations.

The U.S. trade war with China has led to tariffs on billions worth of traded goods, with a 5 percent tariff increase on $250 billion of Chinese imports slated to take effect Tuesday.

Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House on Friday as part of renewed trade talks between the world's two largest economies. But the prospects for a major breakthrough are slim given the recent ratcheting up of tensions.